Recently, I've been thinking about a question, which ** varieties may have a wave of opportunities to make you free in 2024? And how can such a signal be spotted?
Today I have more friends who discuss live pigs, and it seems that many of them are in live pigs, and the reasons are that they are too low, and pig companies are losing money. Is that really the case? Will the pig be the breed that will set you free for your wealth?
Fundamentals of pigs
I found the latest data released by the recent official release, which is as follows:
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' monitoring of 500 county fairs and collection points across the country found that in the first three weeks of January 2024, live pigs **continued**. In the first week of January, the national average of hogs was **1463 yuan kg, by the 3rd week, down to 1435 yuan kg. The hog market in 2023 is sufficient. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the annual pork output was 57.94 million tons, an increase of 4 over the previous year6%, the highest level since 2015. On the other hand, pig prices have been hovering at a low level for a long time, and the average loss of pig breeding heads throughout the year is 76 yuan, which is also the first year since 2014 to calculate the annual loss of the general ledger.
Why Can A Loss-Making Business Last So Long? The cost line of the head pig enterprise is **?
There are three giants of pig breeding in China, they are Muyuan shares, Wen's shares, and New Hope, and these three pig companies will slaughter a total of hundreds of millions of pigs in 2023. Based on their announcements and interactions, you can see that their costs are as follows:
1. The complete cost of pig breeding in December 2023 of Muyuan Co., Ltd. is 153 yuan kg; The loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 184.2 billion. 2. The comprehensive breeding cost of Wen's shares in 2023 is 156 yuan kg; The loss in the first three quarters of 2023 is 4.5 billion. 3. New Hope's breeding cost in 2023 is also 156 yuan kg, and he said that by the end of 2024, the cost will be reduced to less than 15 yuan. The loss in the first three quarters of 2023 was 3.8 billion. Now although the near-term hog contract has fallen below the cost price of the Big Three, the forward contract is still at 168 yuan kg, if pig enterprises make good use of this tool for hedging, there will be profits. Therefore, one day you see that the forward contract is also close to the cost line of pig enterprises, that is the real bottom.
Pig capital side
The families of Oriental Fortune and Hui Merchants are really tireless in pork. At the moment they are in the top 2 of net longs. The top shorts are Ruida**, Green Dahua, COFCO** and Guotai Junan.
In the short term, we don't see a very obvious main force starting to lay out pork, and large seats like COFCO still hold more than 3,000 net short orders. Last year, the major seats that made more profits on pork were still holding net short orders, although the number of positions was not large, but from this point of view, ** really don't worry.
The technical side of the pig
The current trend indicator shows that the hog bullish trend is still 2 stars, which has not yet reached my usual 4-star focus.
Judging from the ordinary trading interface, the position and trading volume of the main hog contract are declining, because the power of shorting was strong before, and now the position is declining, I understand it as the power of shorting is beginning to reduce positions.
Judging from the resonance band inflection point inflection inflection indicator, ** once stood on the green line today, but ** is a false white line, and the red line has not yet stood on the green line. The state of this indicator is to wait and see, and now the uncertainty is very strong.
To sum up, the cost line of the head pig enterprises is low, and they can maintain this production for a long time through hedging, so it is particularly critical to pay attention to the forward contract of pigs, and the forward contract price falls below the cost line of the pig enterprise when it is a signal. The capital side pays attention to COFCO's seats, and when it flips more, it is also a signal. Technically, you can pay attention to the Zhida Lingfeng trend strength indicator.