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In the past year, the relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has undergone major changes, and the leading departments at all levels have strengthened regulation and supervision by optimizing the property market policy to promote the healthy and stable development of the real estate market.
Looking back on 2023, "guaranteed delivery" is still a key word in the real estate industry, and delivery capacity has become an important indicator to measure a real estate company. According to public data, as of the beginning of January, a total of 3.5 million units of guaranteed delivery projects have been delivered, with a delivery rate of more than 76%. According to the data of Yihan Think Tank, the number of units delivered by the top 5 real estate companies exceeded 200,000 units.
2023 is also known as the year of completion and delivery, and how many difficulties and pressures are hidden behind the satisfactory answers handed over by leading real estate companies, the answer can be found from the delivery inventory of real estate enterprises in 2023.
Favorable policies are frequent
In 2023, the area of housing completions increased by 170%
On January 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released the basic situation of the national real estate market in 2023. By comparing the national real estate development and sales data in 2023 and 2022, we can get a glimpse of the development direction of the real estate industry since last year.
According to the data, the national real estate development investment in 2023 will be 110913 billion yuan, a decrease of 9 from the previous year6%；Among them, residential investment was 8,382 billion yuan, down by 93%, a change that reflects a decline in developers' willingness to invest.
At the same time, the sales area of commercial housing in the same period was 111735 million square meters, down 8 percent from the previous year5%, of which the area of residential sales decreased by 82%。The sales of commercial buildings 116622 billion yuan, down by 65%。
In 2023, the area of new housing starts in China will be 953.76 million square meters, a decrease of 204%。Among them, the area of new residential construction was 692.86 million square meters, a decrease of 209%。
It is worth noting that in the case of a decline in the above data, the completed area of housing in China will reach 998.31 million square meters in 2023, an increase of 170%。Among them, the completed area of residential buildings was 724.33 million square meters, an increase of 172%。The strong contrast between the change in the newly started area and the completed area is the result of the vigorous implementation of the "guaranteed delivery" policy and the efforts of major real estate companies to overcome difficulties and complete the delivery indicators.
The salt pickers learned that in July 2022, the ** Politburo meeting put forward the important task of "ensuring the delivery of the building" for the first time.
In January 2023, the central bank added 150 billion yuan of special loans to ensure the smooth completion of real estate projects. At the same time, the central bank also proposed to set up a total of 200 billion yuan of "guaranteed delivery of buildings" loan support plan, and increase the supporting financing of the plan, strengthen the judicial guarantee of "guaranteed delivery of buildings", and provide support for the smooth promotion of real estate projects.
By the middle of 2023, the central bank further clarified that the term of the 200 billion yuan "guaranteed delivery" loan support program will be extended to the end of May 2024.
With the strong guarantee and support of various measures, the work of ensuring the delivery of the building has achieved remarkable results. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, in August 2023, the overall resumption rate of special loan projects for guaranteed delivery of buildings is close to 100%, and the housing delivery rate of the first batch of special loan projects is more than 60%.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the cumulative area of housing completed in 2023 will be 99.8 billion square meters, with a cumulative growth rate of 17% in the area of completed housing, of which 72.4 billion square meters, with a cumulative growth rate of 172%。
These achievements fully prove the effectiveness and necessity of the policy of "guaranteed delivery of real estate", and also provide a strong guarantee for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the implementation of the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings not only solves the housing problem of more people, but also enhances the confidence of the market. To a certain extent, this has a positive effect on enhancing the confidence in the subsequent purchase and sale of real estate and reducing transaction risks.
In 2023, real estate companies will deliver "report cards".
Country Garden Vanke Sunac ranks in the top three, and quality delivery has become the mainstream
Judging from the delivery results of major real estate companies, the leading enterprises will still play an important role in "ensuring the delivery of buildings" in 2023.
According to the "Research Report on the Delivery Performance of China's Typical Real Estate Enterprises from January to December 2023" released by Yihan Think Tank, the number of units delivered by the top 10 real estate companies exceeded 100,000 units, accounting for 53% of the overall delivery volume of the top 50 real estate companies79%。
Among them, Country Garden topped the list with 600,000 units delivered, with a cumulative delivery area of 72.6 million square meters, and Vanke Real Estate delivered 3180,000 units ranked second, with a delivery area of 36.57 million square meters, and Sunac China delivered 310,000 sets in third place, with a delivery area of 35.87 million square meters. Poly, Greenland, China Shipping, Jinke, Longfor and many other real estate companies have delivered more than 110,000 units.
Yihan Think Tank.
In the current real estate market environment, on the one hand, with the upgrading of consumer demand for housing and the intensification of market competition, buyers have higher and higher requirements for housing quality, design style, community environment and other aspects; On the other hand, the supervision of the real estate market is becoming more and more stringent, and there are clear requirements and regulations on the quality of housing, delivery standards, etc.
Therefore, while the delivery volume is increasing, "quality delivery" and "early delivery" have also become the direction of major real estate companies.
According to statistics, many companies, including China Shipping, Huafa, Longfor, etc., have an early delivery rate of more than 20%. A number of projects of China Shipping, Huafa, CIFI, Midea and other real estate companies have realized "delivery of housing is delivery of certificates" within the scope of policy permission and support.
For example, Jinke Group implements a delivery system of "ensuring both delivery and quality"; From January to December 2023, a total of about 140,000 sets** were delivered, creating the largest delivery scale in Longfor's history, while maintaining more than 20% delivery one month ahead of schedule and more than 90% satisfaction.
The continuous "involution" of major real estate companies in terms of delivery quality not only helps to improve the living experience of residents, but also promotes the upgrading of corporate reputation. In addition, it is also of great significance to promote the entire real estate industry to improve construction standards and construction levels, and to promote the healthy competition and sustainable development of the industry as a whole.
In 2024, the delivery of real estate enterprises will accelerate or may cool down?
According to public data, from January to November 2023, the total amount of real estate funds in place was 117044 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 134%。The cumulative issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased by 8% year-on-year5%, which shows that real estate companies are still thirsty for capital.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that the core of delivery is actually to ensure that funds are in place, and this work reflects whether the enterprise can develop healthily and in the long run. For some enterprises with debt risks, it may sometimes ensure that special funds are in place, but bank loans are not in place, which leads to the inability to effectively integrate funds, thus affecting the normal operation of the market.
However, despite the fact that this is not an easy task, many companies are still actively engaged in it. In general, the general direction of delivery work is good, because all localities attach great importance to the risks of the real estate market, including the risk of ordinary people buying houses, the risk of downward market transactions, the risk of second-hand housing listings and the risk of real estate enterprise debt. In this context, the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings is still of great significance. Yan Yuejin said.
On December 25, 2023, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development clarified the key tasks for 2024, stating that in order to stabilize the real estate market, it will optimize the real estate policy, and one of the key tasks is to continue to do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, ensuring people's livelihood and stability, properly handling the risks of real estate enterprises, and rectifying the order of the real estate market.
On January 25, the ** Information Office held a press conference, and Xiao Yuanqi, deputy director of the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration, said that the financial industry has an unshirkable responsibility and must vigorously support real estate. In the future, we will also accelerate the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to achieve results, and more accurately support the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects. At the same time, we will continue to do a good job in personal housing loan financial services, support local cities** and housing and construction departments, and further optimize personal housing loan policies such as down payment ratio and loan interest rate according to urban policies.
Driven by relevant policies, it can more accurately support the reasonable project financing needs of real estate development enterprises and promote the normal development and construction of real estate projects in an orderly manner.
According to the Financial Associated Press, the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism deployed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the State Administration of Financial Supervision has gradually taken effect, and many places have pushed the first batch of real estate project "white lists" to local financial institutions, including Guangxi, Jiangxi, Chongqing and other places. This move accelerates the precise docking of real estate enterprises and financial institutions and accurately supports the reasonable financing needs of real estate projects, which is expected to greatly alleviate the current financial pressure of real estate enterprises, and will provide certain liquidity support for the approaching peak period of debt repayment of real estate enterprises in the first half of this year.
However, on the other hand, there are also many industry insiders who believe that the delivery of real estate companies may "cool down" in 2024.
Yang Huiyan, chairman of the board of directors of Country Garden, has said that the delivery challenge in the next 12 months will enter "deep waters". Yuan Chengjian, co-founder of Jiancheng Shengye, also believes that in 2024, especially in the first half of the year, the confidence in the real estate market is still being repaired, and it will take time for the market to stop falling.
In Yan Yuejin's view, judging from the current situation, the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings will continue to advance in 2024. It is also normal for deliveries to drop in certain areas, as the number of land acquisitions by developers has itself decreased in recent years.
Yihan Think Tank also mentioned in the year-end inventory of the land chapter that from the data of previous years, the growth rate of newly started area lagged behind the growth rate of land transactions for about six months, and the growth rate of completed area lagged behind the growth rate of newly started area for about two years. Therefore, the result of the decline in land transaction volume in the second half of 2021 will gradually be reflected in the area of completions after 2024, and it is expected to officially start negative growth.
On January 15, Country Garden Group held the 2024 annual work conference, at which Yang Huiyan revealed that the company expects to deliver more than 480,000 units in 2024, which shows that the number of units delivered in 2024 has decreased significantly compared with 2023. However, this is still a huge number, which is not a small pressure on companies, but it also shows that they have full confidence in the real estate market.
Experts in the real estate industry believe that with the joint efforts of all parties, the dilemma faced by the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" will be alleviated as soon as possible, and the good orientation of the real estate market to attach importance to the work of ensuring the delivery of buildings will continue for a long time, and further promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.