Xinhua Finance and Economics, Beijing, February 19 (Reporter Ma Yueran) At the beginning of the Year of the Dragon, most of the world's major stock indexes**; The domestic financial data disclosed in January achieved a "good start", and the sharp growth of consumption and travel data showed the recovery trend of the domestic economy.
Whether it is the "warmth" brought by macro fundamentals and consumption data, or the rebound in the market's risk appetite for Chinese assets, many investors believe that "investors' confidence in the Chinese market is gradually recovering" and "hot and hot" may exaggerate the market.
Investor confidence is expected to recover
During the Spring Festival, the market "rose". Nikkei 225 Index Cumulative **431%, and the major U.S. indices are dominated by a wide range**. At the same time, Hong Kong stocks and overseas Chinese assets performed relatively strongly, with the Hang Seng Index achieving three consecutive gains, rising nearly 3%. The A50 index jumped 58%, which is the top performer in the world's major indices.
In terms of the domestic market, Chen Mengyun, a researcher at Soochow ** stock index, believes that the policies to stabilize the capital market before the holiday have been increased one after another, market confidence has been boosted, and liquidity pressure has been eased. In addition, the social finance and credit data in January rebounded more than expected, the scissors gap between M1 and M2 improved significantly, and the consumption data during the Spring Festival holiday performed well, all of which helped the market to repair pessimistic expectations. On the whole, the current market sentiment is gradually improving, and the post-holiday market style is expected to be more balanced.
Recently, the risk appetite of Chinese assets has rebounded significantly. Ruida ** Research Institute also believes that the post-holiday repair of A-shares is expected to continue.
Xia Haojie, chief financial analyst of Guosen** Research and Consulting Department, pointed out that from the perspective of the performance of the futures index, it is expected that the medium and long-term investment value of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index** (IH) and the CSI 300 stock index** (IF) will gradually become prominent.
A number of positive data support optimistic expectations
A number of positive data during the Spring Festival continue to improve the market's pessimistic expectations.
Data released during the Chinese New Year showed that the currency showed that the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 8 year-on-year in January7%, and the scale of social financing increased by 9 percent year-on-year5%。From the perspective of currency growth and GDP, the domestic currency growth rate is still much higher than the GDP growth rate. "This shows that the central bank has adopted an attitude of maintaining an accommodative liquidity environment in terms of stabilizing the economy, and promoting the recovery of the domestic economy. Sufficient liquidity also provides a good monetary environment for the post-holiday period, which is conducive to stabilization. Xia Haojie said.
Xia Haojie also said, "The year-on-year growth rate of social financing exceeded M2, indicating that the transmission of money to the real economy has been relatively smooth, and the efficiency of money to promote the real economy has increased." In terms of new RMB loans, new RMB loans recorded 484 trillion yuan, second only to 4. in January 202393 trillion yuan, which basically maintains the idea of early loans, early investment and early production at the beginning of the year, and promotes a good start for the economy. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank chose to cut the reserve requirement ratio before the holiday, on the one hand, to improve short-term Spring Festival liquidity, and on the other hand, to show the central bank's guidance to maintain a low interest rate environment in the medium and long term. ”
In addition, Chen Mengyun said that the significant increase in service consumption during the Spring Festival shows that the consumption potential of residents is gradually being released. According to the VAT invoice data of the State Administration of Taxation, the average daily sales revenue of service consumption-related industries nationwide increased by 52% year-on-year during the Spring Festival holiday this year (the first to the eighth day of the Lunar New Year).3%。In addition, the number of travelers and consumption during the Spring Festival rebounded sharply, and the box office and number of moviegoers during the Spring Festival reached a record high in the same period in history, and other dazzling data will help restore market confidence.
Incremental funds are expected to start coming into the market
Looking back at the stock index market**, the ups and downs around the Spring Festival are still impressive. "The main driver of the market in the near term is liquidity. Chen Mengyun said, "During the continuous adjustment of the market before the holiday, the bottom fund continued to be the first CSI 300 ETF, and under the pressure of quantitative product redemption and position adjustment, there was a liquidity crisis in small and micro cap stocks, which was larger." In the last three trading days before the holiday, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the scope of underpinning funds to purchase expanded, and it also began to flow into CSI 500, CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 ETFs. ”
Chen Mengyun believes that with the improvement of market pessimism, liquidity is expected to gradually recover in the future, the pressure of net outflow of funds will be eased, and incremental funds are expected to begin to enter the market.
Xia Haojie believes that under the continuous downturn in the early stage, the domestic sentiment declined rapidly before the holiday, and the change in investors' confidence in the market was the core of the sharp reversal of the stock index before the holiday. It can be seen that China is accelerating the construction of an investor-oriented high-quality capital market, and investors' confidence in the market is gradually being reshaped.
According to the analysis of Ruida** Research Institute, the pressure on domestic economic growth has not been completely eased, and it is still possible to further cut the RRR and interest rates after the holiday, and maintain loose liquidity judgment; In addition, with the advent of the two sessions after the holiday, the policy expectations related to maintaining growth are likely to rise, and the policy signals are more positive.
Editor: Guo Zhouyang.
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