Editorial Department of this journal |Qi Yongchao
Recently, in the window period when the market is at a relatively low level and gradually stabilizing, the "smart money" northbound capital has opened a continuous buying mode of more than 10 billion. In addition, the shareholders of listed companies have also started the intensive listing mode, which may be the investment value of the current company's stock price at a low state. Is the bottom of the multi-way fund "increasing horsepower**" market really coming this time?
Northbound funds have reappeared with a continuous net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan
Bottom features becoming more pronounced?
Because of the many "** successes, the northbound capital is also called "smart money". Recently, foreign capital represented by northbound funds has reappeared in a dense net ** model of more than 10 billion yuan. Through the review of historical data, it is found that the time point of the northbound capital intensive net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan also corresponds to multiple market bottoms or stage bottoms. Will it "work" this time too?
According to the data, following a net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan of 12.6 billion yuan on February 6, a net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan of northbound funds reappeared on February 21, with an amount of more than 13 billion yuan.
Looking back, it is rare for northbound funds to have a net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan in a single day, with only more than 50 since its opening, and further observation shows that there are many stages of northbound funds that have shown a relatively intensive net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan**, including July 2023, January 2023, November 2022, May 2022, June, November 2020, February 2020, April 2020, etc. (see Table 1).
In retrospect, there is also a certain rule in this, that is, in a number of northbound capital-intensive net-** stages of more than 10 billion yuan, they all correspond to the bottom of the market or the bottom of the stage. For example, in January 2023, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan in 5 trading days of that month, of which the net inflow reached 186 on January 30$1.4 billion. At that time, the market was at the bottom of the stage, and in terms of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai Composite Index stopped falling in January 2023 and fell by 10% during May 8, 2023 (see Figure 1).
In May 2022, there was also a net inflow of more than 10 billion yuan in northbound funds for many trading days, which also corresponded to the stage bottom of the market, such as the Shanghai Composite Index ushered in *** April 27, 2022 and June 28, 2022 after hitting the stage low at the end of April 2022, with a cumulative increase of nearly 20% (see Figure 2).
On April 7, 2020 and April 14, 2020, the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan, after which the market also started a strong ** mode, such as the Shanghai Composite Index lasted from April 2020 to mid-February 2021, during which the cumulative amount exceeded 30% (see Figure 3).
Recently, a series of favorable stability maintenance policies have been introduced, such as on February 20, the 5-year LPR was lowered more than expected; On February 6, **Huijin announced that it will continue to increase the scope of ETF holdings ......Superimposed on the previous continuous sharp adjustments, the market ushered in a strong **, on February 6 and February 23, it closed 8 consecutive yangs, during which the cumulative ** exceeded 10%.
At the same time, there are more and more voices from institutions expecting the market to improve. On February 21, 2024, a research opinion of IFC said that with the improvement of fundamentals and the release of liquidity risks, the bullish factors of ** are accumulating. It said that there are three reasons to be bullish on the market:1When "stable growth" is carried out, the supporting effect on the economy is expected to gradually appear; 2.Under the low valuation, the broad-spectrum interest rate is lowered, which may be conducive to the rise of capital risk appetite; 3.Incremental funds such as Huijin are expected to help the market, but also weaken the tail risk of the market.
Northbound funds love low-level faucets
Explosive buying of consumer, financial and other ** stocks
Behind the large amount of net **, the "** strategy of northbound funds also shows some preference, and the transaction data of the day when the net inflow of northbound funds exceeds 10 billion shows that its layout focuses mainly on consumption, finance, technology and other head companies.
In retrospect, on February 6, the day when the net capital of northbound funds exceeded 10 billion yuan, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, BOE A, China Merchants Bank, Oriental Wealth, LONGi Green Energy, WuXi AppTec, Bank of Communications, BYD and other industry leading companies received a higher net amount, all exceeding 100 million yuan, and Kweichow Moutai had the highest net amount, exceeding 900 million yuan.
On February 21, the net ** trading day exceeded 10 billion, and the companies with the highest net ** amount of northbound funds also focused on the industry leaders. Wind data shows that Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, Wuliangye, Ping An of China, CATL, BYD, Industrial Bank, China State Construction, North Huachuang, etc. received a higher net ** amount on the same day, all exceeding 200 million yuan, and Kweichow Moutai once again topped the net ** list, exceeding 1.3 billion yuan.
Further, on February 6 and February 21, a number of companies, including Kweichow Moutai, China Merchants Bank, BYD, LONGi Green Energy, China Duty Free, etc., have continuously received large increases in northbound funds (see Table 2).
Further, most of the above-mentioned companies that have received northbound funds to focus on increasing their positions belong to industry leaders that have been continuously adjusted and their stock prices are at a relatively low level. For example, Wuliangye, on February 6 and February 21, the net amount of northbound funds exceeded 400 million yuan. In retrospect, the northbound capital has focused on its layout for many trading days before, and since January this year, it has accumulated a net of more than 5 billion yuan. Judging from the stock price performance of the secondary market, Wuliangye's share price has also stopped falling. Since February, the company's stock price has accumulated more than 10%.
The big financial targets that have also started to stop the decline of the northbound funds, such as China Merchants Bank, Ping An of China, etc., have not only increased their positions on February 6 and February 21, but also focused on them before. Since late December last year, the stock price of China Merchants Bank has accumulated more than 20%, and during this period, the net amount of northbound funds has exceeded 6 billion yuan; During the same period, Ping An's cumulative ** exceeded 10%, and the cumulative net ** during the northbound capital period exceeded 7 billion yuan.
The funds raised are also intensively shot
Keep "buying, buying, buying".
At the same time as the capital in the north has increased a large amount of money, another echelon of "smart money" is also in action, that is, important shareholders of listed companies, in recent years, many shareholders of companies have opened the mode of "buying, buying, buying" at the low level of stock prices.
On February 21, Wantong Technology issued a report on changes in equity, saying that the controlling shareholder **Jingyuan increased its holdings in the company by 12 on February 7, 2024160,000 shares, accounting for 003%。After this equity change, **Jingyuan holds 8204 unrestricted tradable shares of the company920,000 shares, accounting for 20 of the company's total share capital00%。Previously, Wantong Technology had won many rounds of Jingyuan. After this increase, Jingyuan has raised its cards for 4 times to Wantong Technology.
The main business of Wantong technology is computer information system integration, application software development, etc., the company's share price at the end of November last year hit a high point after ushering in continuous adjustment, to February 6 this year, the cumulative ** more than 6 percent, **Jingyuan is currently given to increase the weight of the company's stock price is not unrelated to the over-falling factor. After being raised, the share price of Wantong Technology ushered in the bottom, and the company's stock price accumulated more than 3% on February 8 and February 22.
Not only Wantong Technology, but also a number of companies have recently been lifted. For example, according to the recent announcement of the environmental protection company Fasten, the shareholder Zhang Xiliang increased his holdings of the company's shares to 5%, constituting a sign, for the purpose of increasing his holdings, Zhang Xiliang said that he was optimistic about the company's future development prospects based on investment needs. Similar to Wantong Technology, Fasten's stock price is also currently at a relatively low level.
In addition, recently, Dongyi Risheng, Fujie Environmental Protection, Zhongyuan Environmental Protection and other companies have been listed or continued on the basis of the previous listings (see Table 3).
Another type of "smart money" is also in action, entering the layout through private placement at the low stage of the stock price of listed companies. On February 5th, a fixed increase of Anoqi landed, behind this, Ruifeng Wansheng and Guqu Quanying No. 6 were allocated 12562 respectively450,000 yuan, 12837550,000 yuan.
Anoqi's main business is disperse dyes, but recently, it has added the popular concept of "SORA concept (Wensheng**)". According to Anoqi's announcement on February 6, the company intends to acquire 100% of the shares of Shanghai Gencong Information, and the company's Yijian AI provides AI painting, AI photography, and AI ** (content creation social platform. Recently, the concept of SORA has heated up, and Anoqi's share price has also ushered in a good **, such as February 6 and February 21, the company's stock price has doubled. Ruifeng Wansheng and Guqu Quanying No. 6** have all made good profits.
(The ** mentioned in the article is for example analysis only, not as a recommendation for buying and selling.) ）