Straight news: Mr. Liu, following the removal of the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, Ukraine's ** Zelensky has replaced a number of senior generals of the Ukrainian army, including the chief of the General Staff. How do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Zelensky's temporary change of commander, especially the removal of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny, reflects his eagerness to reverse the current passive situation of being at a disadvantage on the land battlefield. At the same time, it also reflects that in the current war situation in a protracted and stalemate state, compared with Russia, Ukraine cannot afford to delay and consume. In other words, judging from the current situation, the times and circumstances seem to be more unfavorable for Ukraine.
The reason behind this is that in this protracted war of attrition, although Russia fought extremely hard and stood up extremely hard, they were supported by their own national strength after all, and the initiative could be in their own hands. Ukraine, on the other hand, is supported by Western economic and military aid, and the initiative is not in its own hands. And with other people's money, you have to come up with benefits, or you have to pay to others. If the Ukrainian army does not fight well on the battlefield, especially if it falls into a passive situation, the confidence of the West in military aid to Ukraine will be further weakened. And the confidence of the West in assisting Ukraine has been further weakened, especially the fact that the aid cannot be delivered in time, which in turn will further weaken Ukraine's combat effectiveness.
In addition, there is a more important reason, which is the domestic political factor of the United States. As I once said, there are actually two "battlefields" being fought at the same time, one is the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the other is the domestic political struggle in the United States, which is mainly manifested in the internal struggle between the Democratic and Republican parties, especially the struggle for the throne between Biden and Trump. Moreover, these two "wars" and two "wars" are interlinked, and the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war will affect the United States, and the outcome of the United States will affect and even determine the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Ukraine's ** Zelensky is eager to change the commander at this juncture, just to let the Ukrainian army fight a turnaround battle before the United States *** to help Biden successfully achieve re-election. So, for Zelensky, time waits for no one, and decisive action must be taken.
Straight news: Then why does Zelensky have to replace Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny? What kind of unknown contradictions are there between them?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I noticed that there is a claim that Zaluzhny has threatened Zelensky's position. A poll at the end of last year showed that Zaluzhny's approval rating was more than 90 percent, higher than Zelensky's 77 percent. The British magazine "The Economist" said that the Ukrainian government suspected Zaluzhny of political ambitions. The Washington Post believes that if Zaluzhny decides to join the world, it will pose a threat to Zelensky's re-election campaign. In my opinion, these claims are pure nonsense. You must know that Ukraine is currently in the midst of a war, as long as the war does not end for a day, a new round of *** will not be held for a day, and more importantly, if Ukraine is completely defeated, not only Zelensky will have no political future, but Zaluzhny will not have a political future, and even Ukraine will not have a political future. I think both Zelensky and Zaluzhny should be well aware of this.
In my opinion, Zelensky has made up his mind to replace Zaluzhny, in addition to the disadvantage of the Ukrainian army in the big **war division, another important reason is that Zaluzhny has shown signs of usurpping his authority, including openly contradicting Zelensky on the issue of whether to continue to recruit 500,000 soldiers, and even more in an interview with the British "Economist" magazine in November last year, he publicly announced that the Russian-Ukrainian war has reached a stalemate, and revealed his fear of difficulties. We know that as the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Zaluzhny's responsibility is to be responsible for the implementation of the strategy and tactics formulated by Zelensky, and whether to conscript 500,000 troops and judge the state of war is completely a strategic issue, and it can even be said to be a major political issue, because it will not only affect the military and civilian hearts of Ukraine, but also affect the political, economic and military assistance of the West to Ukraine. You must know that in this Russia-Ukraine conflict, the importance and intensity of the political, diplomatic and moral game between the two sides is far greater than the military game between the two sides. And the political and diplomatic decisions must be made by Zelensky, and he will bear the ultimate responsibility. This is a matter of basic political ethics and political common sense. In this case, in order to ensure the smooth implementation of the decree and the implementation of strategy and tactics, it is imperative for Zelensky to remove Zaluzhny.
In addition, Zelensky, as the political leader of Ukraine and the commander-in-chief of the three armed forces, the removal of a commander-in-chief should also be within the scope of his authority. On the contrary, Zelensky has been shouting for several months but has not been able to replace Zaluzhny, which is the real major hidden danger of the political situation in Ukraine. Because this matter develops, the next step is a mutiny or a coup d'état. Fortunately, in the end, Zelensky did it, which means that both Ukraine and Zelensky himself have successfully survived a potential political and military crisis.
Straight news: Then what impact will the successful removal of Zaluzhny and the successful reshuffle of high-level military personnel in Ukraine have on the next Russia-Ukraine war?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Actually, the problem behind Zelensky's capture of Zaluzhny is not only that the Ukrainian army is not making smooth progress in the big ** operation, nor is it just that Zaluzhny has usurped power, but also that Zelensky and Zaluzhny, as well as the US Pentagon and Zaluzhny, have strategic and tactical differences in the way the Russian-Ukrainian war is played. According to foreign news reports, at the beginning of the big **, both Zelensky and the US Pentagon believed that the Ukrainian army should concentrate superior forces and take action in the south to take Crimea first, while Zaluzhny insisted that a full-scale ** operation should be carried out on all fronts. But the final result has proven that Zaluzhny's tactical effect is not only not ideal, but also puts the Ukrainian army in the current passive situation.
In this case, Zelensky's purpose in removing Zaluzhny is not just to replace people, but to change heads, or to change strategy and tactics. Especially compared to Zaluzhny, the new commander-in-chief Syrsky will strategically implement the will of Zelensky, especially the US Pentagon. Therefore, the large-scale adjustment of the top military generals of the Ukrainian army means that after the Russian-Ukrainian war enters its third year, a series of new changes will be ushered in on the battlefield.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".