An estimate of the projected damage and chaos of the catastrophic and tsunami off the coast of Hawke's Bay has been received, which could paralyze the country.
In a briefing to incoming ministers released on Thursday, serious warnings from tens of thousands of people** and more than $144 billion in bills were revealed. Such briefings are produced by civil servants after each ** or change of minister, and usually point out the problems and challenges faced by each department.
In a briefing to the Minister for Emergency Management and Recovery, Mark Mitchell, they spoke candidly about the various disasters facing the country and how often they occur.
Severe weather events, exacerbated by climate change, have become the new normal. The latest scientific research tells us that catastrophic events like the Alpine Fault** or the Hikurangi Subduction Zone** and the tsunami are very likely to happen – if not in our lifetimes, then in the lifetimes of our children. It could happen tomorrow," the briefing said.
A devastating event could cost tens of thousands of people and hundreds of billions of dollars, the report says.
The report also warns that there are gaps in workforce capacity, which could lead to even medium- or small-scale incidents not recovering.
There is increasing pressure and demand on the ability of emergency management systems to respond to and recover from emergencies, especially as the scale and frequency of emergencies increases. ”
A 2018 analysis showed that New Zealand ranked second in the world in terms of financial exposure to natural disasters, according to the briefing.
The number of days a state of emergency was declared each year increased from zero in 2014 to 31 in 2019. Last year there were 90. All these days in 2023 are due to bad weather or flooding.
With regard to **, the fact sheet said, "There is a 25% chance of a major Hikurangi subduction zone event in the next 50 years".
The impact of the Hikurangi Great** and tsunami on the country included tens of thousands of deaths, injuries or displacements, as well as significant damage to the built environment (more than $144 billion). ”
According to GNS, the Hikurangi region, located on the east coast of the North Island, "is probably New Zealand's largest ** and tsunami hazard source". GNS is conducting a five-year research project in the region.
In the South Island, the risk is concentrated on the Alpine Fault, which stretches for 600 kilometres along the spine of the South Island of Aoteara and is considered one of the world's major geological features.
GNS said the fault moves horizontally by about 30m every 1,000 years, "which is very fast by global standards".
Every time it breaks, it also moves vertically, lifting the Southern Alps in the process. Over the past 12 million years, the Southern Alps have risen a staggering 20 kilometres, only rapid erosion has kept its highest point below 4,000 metres. ”
Over the past 900 years, the fault has ruptured four times, each time producing about 8 magnitudes. The last thought to have occurred around 1717.
Recent studies have shown that there is a 75% chance of an Alpine fault occurring over the next 50 years, with an 80% chance of at least a magnitude 8**.
Such an incident will cause widespread destruction, destruction and destruction throughout the South Island," the briefing said.
Electricity** in the North Island may also be affected. Thousands of visitors and residents may be quarantined in parts of Queenstown Lakes, Central Otago, the West Coast and Fiordland. Associated hazards may include landslides, landslide-induced tsunamis, landslide dams, and intensified river flooding. ”
The briefing also points to the impacts of climate change, as well as the increasing frequency of floods, landslides, droughts, heat waves and wildfires.
The emergency management system needs to be improved, the report says.
Recent severe weather in the North Island has overwhelmed the emergency management system. While Hurricane Gabriel caused devastating damage to the communities involved, it can be considered a medium-sized event compared to what New Zealand may experience. ”
An investigation into the response to the North Island weather event is expected in March and recommendations will be made. But overall, the briefing said, a major issue is growing and maintaining workforce capacity. Regional differences mean that *** institutions "will not have enough personnel to respond to a catastrophic event." In some cases, there may not be the capacity to respond adequately to and recover from medium- or even small-scale incidents."