In "Political Polarization, Intensified Party Strife! Is the U.S. abandoning free-market supremacy? In this article, we analyze the core of the political struggle in the United States. The political paradigm of the United States, the "ideal country" envisioned by Enlightenment thinkers, represents the heyday of Western civilization.
However, when the free-market economy's model of wealth accumulation is undermining its economic and political foundations as never before, this political paradigm will naturally face major adjustments.
A tumultuous shuffle from the "old consensus" to the "new consensus".
At present, the United States believes that it cannot continue to adhere to the "old consensus" of economic globalization and free markets, and then throws out a "new consensus" to solve the four major challenges.
First, the serious hollowing out of the U.S. industry, especially the relocation of manufacturing and the over-dependence of the first chain on China caused by globalization;
Second, geopolitical and security competition is a drag on economic development, mainly around Sino-US competition and the Russian threat.
Third, climate change will exacerbate the pressure on the energy transition, affecting technological innovation, climate goals, employment and other aspects.
Fourth, the gap between rich and poor in society threatens democratic institutions, including the rise of populism represented by Trump.
The problem is that, while both are from neoliberalism, the two parties have come up with opposite solutions. Political polarization and partisanship will not be eased in a short period of time, and American politics will also usher in a turbulent reshuffle period in the midst of bifurcation.
At the heart of the new consensus is to abandon the excessive superstition of the free market and instead use the state apparatus to comprehensively revive the industrial ecosystem and technological innovation capacity in the United States. Still, it's too early to say that the Democrats' manufacturing reshoring policy has been successful.
As the saying goes, deindustrialization is easy but re-industrialization is difficult, and the reshoring of manufacturing, especially the re-cultivation of the local industrial ecology, requires long-term efforts and cannot be achieved overnight through several bills. As for "America First", the Sino-US dispute has caused about $100 billion in U.S. exports to shrink and about 250,000 jobs to be lost, which has been ridiculed as "stupid business".
The United States is facing three major adjustments.
It can be deduced from this that in the long run, the United States will make difficult adjustments in three aspects: political philosophy, social ideology, and political model.
The first is the political philosophy.
From the emergence of Huntington's "Clash of Civilizations" to the detonation of contemporary political philosophy debates by his student Fukuyama's "Final Conclusion of History", the United States has always regarded freedom and democracy as the foundation of its founding and is keen to spread its liberal values everywhere as a "world policeman".
As everyone knows, the United States itself is shifting from neoliberalism to advocating state intervention, and although the elites of the two parties have reached some consensus, there are still differences.
If the "new consensus" thrown out by the Democrats is a return to the state intervention advocated by Hamiltonism, then the "America First" that still hovers over the Republican Party is more like accepting the isolation and national priority emphasized by Jacksonism.
In addition to the inevitable annual budget tug-of-war, the elites of both parties will also more frequently and skillfully wrap nationalism in a free-market shell. At that time, the United States will be in the midst of elites competing for new political ideas that can be embraced by both parties – as it was played out among the founding fathers of the United States 200 years ago.
The second is the trend of social thought.
From the Black Lives Matter movement in May 2020 to the current "Jew or Palestinian"** American society has spent too much energy and resources on the issue of so-called identity. Further, identity is just one example of political correctness going to extremes.
For another example, advocating for the protection of the rights and interests of sexual minorities was originally a good thing, but so far there has been a comical view of "how can doctors arbitrarily define the sex of babies" (see the high-level internal reference article "Political Correctness, the Death Hole of the West of the United States - * Unstoppable Bleeding Point" in Issue 32 of 2023). The "gender is Walmart shopping bag" that was once circulated before is a satire of this overkill.
Extreme political correctness is essentially the subtle erosion of religion on the general public, dragging American society into infinite internal friction.
As the saying goes, the extremes must be opposed, and after countless political games, attacks and killings in the French Revolution, moderate equality, freedom, and fraternity were gradually realized in the change of regime. The social trend of thought that runs to the other extreme tends to gradually converge to ** in extreme fluctuations and chaos.
The second is a political model based on the first two.
The American-style separation of powers has provided the world with a unique experience of nation-building; However, whether it is a "lame duck"** stalemate with Congress, or a bipartisan confrontation in Congress, the political model in the United States today is becoming increasingly inefficient.
Not long ago, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer handed Harris a small gavel to congratulate her on becoming the deputy who cast the most crucial votes in history during a draw in the Senate. As everyone knows, Harris's record-breaking just confirms the-for-tat political stance of lawmakers from both parties.
The current political model of the United States has entered a vicious circle of self-dissipation, and the future must be explored and innovated in the form of experimentation.
At present, in order to promote a political agenda that is in line with the interests of his party, Biden has to "bow his head" to the Republicans in terms of aid to Ukraine and the interim budget.
Moderate politicians play a key role in this. This will require both parties to promote underrepresented forces (young politicians, moderate politicians, etc.) into the leadership, and cross-party consultations and cooperation between Congress and the White House may become normalized and institutionalized. Driven by the current situation, the elites in power passively reflect on the existing political model of the United States, trying to seek the greatest common divisor in compromise.
Certainty and uncertainty of 2024**.
And when the long-term problems are clarified, the year 2024, which is the most concerned at the moment, will be relatively clear. In terms of this, the face-to-face meeting between Trump and Biden is basically a foregone conclusion, and for voters, 2024 will be the lesser of two evils in a certain sense.
On the one hand, although Biden is personally unpopular, the Democratic Party maintains considerable appeal. As a result, Biden will not only adjust his campaign strategy to make voters feel the benefits of his political achievements, but also combine partisan issues with concepts such as human rights and freedoms** in order to win re-election.
On the other hand, Trump's "America First" populist line has gone further and further, but his approval rating has not diminished. At the end of the day, the uneducated suburban white community is quite solid as its base, and it is not entirely impossible for it to be re-elected.
As for the two houses of Congress, the Republican Party may be able to "breathe a sigh of relief."
In the north wing of the Capitol, with Democratic Senator Manchin announcing his retirement, the probability of Republicans regaining control of the Senate has increased. In the south wing of the building, not only are several state legislatures redrawing district boundaries to ensure Republicans are elected, but the number of retired Democratic House members is also increasing, and the Republican Party's slim majority may not be shaken.
Of course, the world is always full of unexpected encounters, and no one can be sure that there will not be a "black swan" or "gray rhinoceros" in the last 11 months that will change the current situation. For example, the United States** noted a marked increase in turnout in the 2023 election, a trend that could mean that the 2024 United States** could see something new beyond experience.
Find a new politics in the throes.
With 2024** as the benchmark, the two parties will have to make adjustments to their political layout in the coming years.
For the ruling Democratic Party, it is necessary to train the next generation of politicians and improve the current situation of lack of young people in the party. If Biden is re-elected, he will become the oldest at the age of 82**, and many people even doubt that he will be able to complete his term successfully. In fact, there is still no star politician like Obama in the Democratic Party.
On the one hand, the competition between the two parties is becoming more and more fierce, and on the other hand, the incumbent ** has to wrestle several times when he gets on the plane, and the Democratic Party's vision must penetrate the current ** and plan for the future.
The Republican Party is also expected to review its strategy in the context of the defeat of the last session and the lessons of the party, and recognize that "conservative is not the same as reactionary", and there is no prospect for going against the trend of history.
The scarring effect of the June 2022 Supreme Court ruling to revoke the constitutionally protected right to abortion is sinking down to the states, with voters widely viewing the ruling as a human rights step backwards and speaking out with action. Republicans fail to foresee widespread support for women's right to have an abortion, even though a majority of Republican voters do not approve of abortion at any time during pregnancy. If the Republican Party sticks to traditional values, it will only lose more points in the future.
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In fact, the two parties are politically polarized and their boundaries are becoming increasingly blurred.
For example, the Democratic Party has recently made major compromises to the Republican Party on border policy, and the Republican-dominated states are also working with the Democratic Party to promote the legalization of abortion rights and deregulation in the state, which is accused of "the Democratic Party has become like the Republican Party, and the Republican Party has become like the Democratic Party."
Hobsbawm once said, "If a new millennium is to be built on this old foundation, it is doomed to failure." "When the old order reaches a dead end, the land of the free that the Founding Fathers were once proud of will force the United States to find a new politics in the throes of more than a decade – and this time, it will be difficult for the United States to lead the world.