Opinion: The start of the global **024 year is less than expected, the US stock market is lower, the A-share market also continues to decline, the gem refreshes a new low in four years, and the Shanghai Composite Index also falls below the 2900-point integer mark. **of**, the short-term is a concentrated embodiment of internal and external troubles and lack of confidence, but at the bottom of multiple cycles and the trend of economic recovery, with the historical low valuation and the imminent movement of funds, under the expectation of a good start in financial data, the index stage adjustment is expected to be nearing the end. At present, there is no need to be too pessimistic, but to be gradually optimistic, and consider dip allocation and seeding, and game a possible spring**.
At the beginning of 2024, A-shares fell below the 2,900-point integer mark, once again refreshing a new low since 2023. So far, since the beginning of 2024, the three major indexes across the board** have all ushered in a new low in the second round of adjustment, and during this period, the GEM and the Shenzhen Component Index have fallen for 5 consecutive years at the beginning of the year, and the GEM has also ushered in a new low for more than four years.
It should be noted that the latest financial data will be released today. Jiemian News Report: China Securities Construction Investment said that the social financing data for December last year will be released on January 10, 2024. According to its dynamic factor** model, the ** value of the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in December 2023 is 938%, overall stable and improving. Everbright also pointed out that from a historical point of view, the central bank's monetary policy adjustment, the release of important economic data, and the convening of important meetings will become the driving factors of spring, and the time for the start of the first month is more concentrated in January. Therefore, if the monetary policy is further implemented in January 2024, and the financial data in January 2024 is expected to achieve a good start, the market is expected to gradually come to the end of winter.
As we all know, financial data is also one of the leading indicators of the economy, especially under the trend of credit union financing, which often indicates the improvement of the macroeconomic stage, that is, the expected improvement of the economic recovery in the stage. Therefore, under the expectation of good social finance data and the fundamentals of the economic rebound, it will also bring positive stimulus to **. After all, around the New Year's Day, although it is the best in the market caused by internal and external troubles, the internal fundamentals are the core. At this time, if the financial data can bring a boost, the market's worries will be weakened, and the funds are ready to move, once the sentiment picks up, the pace of capital entry is also expected to accelerate.
In addition to the positive expectations of financial data, after continuous adjustments, many "disk protection" actions also seem to be unfolding. Since the beginning of this week, a new round of holdings and buybacks has continued, and at the same time, the company's buybacks and cancellations are also underway. For example, according to the report of the Financial Associated Press, the repurchase and cancellation of A-share companies is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan, and Huatai ** has recently cancelled and repurchased 45.28 million shares. Historically, although concentrated holdings and buybacks are not the absolute influencing factors at the bottom of the market, they are indeed important signals at the bottom of the market stage. Since the second half of last year, the increase in holdings and repurchases have been concentrated, and the signal at the bottom of the market stage is gradually consolidating.
Therefore, although there is no clear signal of a reversal in the market at present, the signal of the stage bottoming continues to strengthen at the time of the bottom of multiple cycles. After the beginning of the year, with the release of worries and the presentation of short-term technical overshoots, the market technical side showed signs of stopping. With the positive expectations of financial data and the continuous emergence of "disk protection" behavior, the adjustment after New Year's Day is expected to gradually come to an end. For investors, there is no need to be too pessimistic at present, it is still a good time to allocate on dips, and it is recommended that investors actively sow seeds and look forward to the harvest under the overall economic recovery!