**1: Humanoid robot market space outlook - the world can reach trillions of levels, not inferior to 3C, new energy vehicles
Humanoid robots are expected to be commercialized in the AI era. In 2021, electric vehicle giant Tesla announced that it would launch the humanoid robot product "Optimus Prime", thus marking the beginning of the era of commercialization of humanoid robots. The number of domestic heavyweight players is increasing, and companies such as Xiaopeng and Xiaomi have entered the field of humanoid robots. In 2021, the Walker X was released, and the visual positioning navigation and hand-eye coordination operation technology were fully upgraded, so that the Walker X could interact with people more vividly, and also learned to play chess. In August 2022, Xiaomi's first full-size humanoid bionic robot, CyberOne, was officially unveiled. In October 2023, Xpeng launched its self-developed humanoid bipedal robot PX5, and in October 2024, Xpeng hopes that the humanoid robot will be initially used in its own factory. Huawei and other companies are actively deploying in the field of humanoid robots. On June 19, 2023, Dongguan Jimu Machinery Co., Ltd. was established, which is wholly owned by Huawei Technologies Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 8700 million yuan, the market expects Huawei to also enter the field of humanoid robots.
Humanoid robots have a wide range of application scenarios and are a powerful complement to industrial robots and other automation equipment. Musk expects humanoid robots to be used in the vicinity of vehicles, living in the home, industrial and commercial and outer space scenarios. According to the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, the application scenarios of humanoid robots to be expanded in the future include: In special fields, humanoid robots will be used in vigilance and guard scenarios, as well as special environments such as civil explosion and rescue. In the manufacturing industry, humanoid robots will be used in assembly, transfer, testing, maintenance and other processes for structured production and manufacturing. For unstructured production and manufacturing, humanoid robots will achieve collaborative interaction with equipment, personnel, and the environment to support flexible and customized manufacturing. In the field of people's livelihood, humanoid robots will be applied to medical and housekeeping scenarios such as life and health, companion care, agriculture, logistics, etc.
**2: The increase in global wind power installed capacity in 2024 will come from domestic sea wind, and the profitability of the host may have upward elasticity
It is expected that in 2024, the domestic offshore installed capacity will maintain a year-on-year growth rate of more than 80%, with 10-12GW of new offshore wind installed capacity, and the onshore installed capacity will be flat year-on-year, which is expected to be 60GW, and it is expected that the level of power grid consumption will increase in 2025, and the installed capacity of onshore wind is expected to grow, and the increase in domestic wind power in 2024 will mainly come from sea wind. Overseas is expected to be flat year-on-year in 2024, and the installed capacity of sea wind is expected to be basically flat or slightly increased year-on-year in 2024, and the installed capacity of overseas sea wind is expected to usher in an increase in 2025.
**3: The current round of PV storage inventory cycle is expected to bottom out in the first half of 2024, and the sector is expected to recover in the spring
Under the year-end destocking cycle, the industry chain will further decline, and it is expected that the low point of polysilicon will appear around the end of the year. At present, the industrial chain has gradually entered the stage of clearing production capacity, and the follow-up demand is to focus on the timing of photovoltaic storage & photovoltaic hydrogen parity. At present, the LCOE of PV + storage is significantly lower than that of coal power, and the production of hydrogen from photovoltaic is expected to achieve complete parity in 2026-2027.
Photovoltaic: grasp the industry pattern and new technology changes, and continue to be optimistic about the TOPCon industry chain.
In 2024, the overall supply of the industry will exceed demand, the industrial chain and profitability will be at the bottom of the "L-shaped", and the market share of enterprises with cost and technical advantages can be increased, focusing on the evolution of the industry pattern. We judge that if double-sided poly can be successfully introduced, TOPCON will still be the mainstream technology route in the next 2-3 years.
Energy storage: Pay attention to ground power station inverters, large storage PCS, and overseas integration.
This year's domestic installed capacity is expected to reach 35GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 100%, but the battery and integration links have missed, mainly due to overcapacity, poor pattern, and fierce war resulting in gross profit and net profit loss. Looking forward to next year, we are still optimistic about the domestic demand for large storage, and recommend PCS and ground power station inverters with stable volume and profit.
Fourth: the demand for hydrogen energy will continue to double, and it is expected to become the most potential investment direction of electric new
In 2024, demand is expected to maintain a high growth rate, and there is still downward pressure on the first end, based on the 25-year target of 50,000 vehicles in the medium and long-term planning of hydrogen energy, we give 24 25 domestic fuel cell vehicles to promote 11,300 and 21,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of about 100%, but at present, the visibility of production and sales is still to be further clarified after the new phase of the urban agglomeration's promotion goals and bidding landing. From the perspective of the distribution of urban agglomerations, Hebei and Guangdong have set higher targets, and the promotion of 7710 10000 fuel cell vehicles during the demonstration urban agglomeration period will be the main body of market increment in 24 to 25 years. From the perspective of model structure, the Shanghai urban agglomeration has no promotion plan for passenger cars in 24 years, and the proportion of heavy truck models with more than 31 tons has increased from 19% to 53%, which is expected to become the main model of fuel cell installation in 24 years.
**5: The penetration rate in 2024 will be one step higher on the basis of 40%, and the core is the characteristics of "the next generation of fuel vehicles", and the key is fast charging and intelligence
The main contradiction between the sales volume and penetration rate of new energy vehicles is supply, the core of supply is competitiveness, and the key to competitiveness lies in cost performance and new technologies. Of course, the consumption capacity of the demand side, the level of electricity prices and oil prices also have an impact, but the impact is limited.
Before 2019, the core contradiction was the subsidy policy, and its models were not competitive and new gravitational; Since 2020, with the localization of Tesla's Model 3 and the local industrial chain**, it has become the first B-class explosive product, and it has begun to have the signs of "next-generation products for fuel vehicles"; In 2021, the supply side will begin to develop towards the strategy of full audience and full **, and at the same time, CTP20, blade batteries began to be widely used, the local ** chain cost reduction was obvious, and the penetration rate quickly increased to 20% platform; From 2022 onwards, the BYD Dynasty series will make full efforts to demand better cost, supporting and safety for marginal audiences, and the new power model cycle will be brewing to strive for the mid-to-high-end field.
From 2023, the increase in the penetration rate of model diversity will begin to be blunted, standing in the process of 40% penetration rate and looking forward to 50% penetration rate, the core contradiction is to reflect the fundamental difference with fuel vehicles, on the one hand, to make up for the shortcomings of battery life, such as fast charging, charging piles, etc., on the other hand, the core competitiveness of electric vehicles is intelligent, and intelligent driving brings qualitative improvement to the use of new energy vehicles.
**6: Huawei's industrial chain will significantly benefit from the penetration of intelligent driving and the cycle of new models, and intelligent driving will blossom in more than 24 years
In 2024, Huawei's value chain will significantly benefit from the penetration of intelligent driving and the new model cycle. At present, Huawei's intelligent driving technology is at the first echelon level in China, with strong brand appeal and channel capabilities, and a partner ecosystem has been basically formed. In the future, the models of the "two worlds" of Sailis Wenjie, Chery Zhijie, JAC and BAIC will be launched one after another, and the models of the four smart car partners will be increased. At the same time, Huawei and Changan Automobile have carried out in-depth cooperation in the form of joint ventures, and other car companies such as FAW and smart car partners are expected to take shares in the future, which means that Huawei's partners will continue to expand, and related parts and vehicle companies are expected to usher in opportunities.
Mainstream car companies have more L0-L2 intelligent driving enterprises, and they have begun to move from L2 to L3 to promote the implementation of urban NOA. The automatic navigation assistance driving function of some car companies has gradually transitioned from parking to highway to urban road conditions. At present, the automatic assisted navigation systems of many car companies have basically begun to have multi-scenario autonomous driving capabilities, such as "Wei Xiaoli", Zhiji, Huawei, etc. Some companies' urban NOA systems, such as Xpeng City NGP and Huawei City NCA, have already begun to be launched in some cities, and more OEMs will enter the high-end intelligent driving in urban scenarios in 2024.
**7: In 2024, automobiles will still show distinct growth in going overseas, and independent car companies will achieve long-term development through factory construction and joint ventures
The overseas boom of automobiles continues to be high, and the total volume & structure is improving in an all-round way. From the perspective of total volume, China's auto exports have continued to boom since 2020, and the sales volume from January to October from 2020 to 2023 increased by -2 year-on-year8%/102.5%/54.4%/59.7%。The "first jump" in export sales is the inevitable result of the manufacturing capacity of independent car companies catching up and the electrification capacity leading overseas car companies under the opportunity of the external ** chain being blocked, showing long-term growth. In 2023, although the external first-chain disturbance will gradually subside, China's auto exports have entered a virtuous circle and achieved high growth from a high base. In October 2023, China's automobile export sales reached 4840,000 units, continuing to set a record high.
We believe that in 2024, there will still be a clear growth trend for automobiles going overseas, and independent car companies will achieve long-term development through factory construction and joint ventures. The medium- and long-term logic of automobiles going overseas continues to be deduced to support total growth: In the field of fuel vehicles, Chinese car companies have achieved "excellent people" by virtue of their strong manufacturing capabilities and cost-effective advantages, and have entered markets such as Russia and Southeast Asia; In the field of new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of overseas new energy is still low, and Chinese automakers continue to explore high-potential markets such as Europe and Oceania by exporting high-quality electrification capabilities. Electrification is a global definite trend, and Chinese automakers have a forward-looking layout and obvious first-mover advantage. On the demand side, the process of electrification around the world is fast and slow, but the penetration rate of new energy is in the early stage of development and is steadily rising: in October 2023, the penetration rate of new energy in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia is 776%/5.26%/3.74%, +243/+3.96/+2.24pcts。Chinese automakers have achieved a leading position in new energy technology and related industrial chains, and the first-mover advantage will continue to be transformed into momentum for going global.
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