A Russian Il-76 transport plane crashed in Belgorod Oblast, carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners. The Russian side accused Ukraine of launching a missile strike, which caused the plane to crash. The Ukrainian side denied it and said it could not confirm that it was its missile that shot it down. This incident could lead to an escalation of the standoff between Russia and Ukraine, making it difficult for the two sides to negotiate peace. Ukraine** Zelensky condemned Russia and saw the incident as "playing with the lives of prisoners of war." Behind the incident, Ukraine may want to continue fighting due to the loss of support, and the United States, in order to maintain its dominant position in Europe, may avoid negative consequences for Biden by supporting Ukraine. At the same time, NATO launched large-scale military exercises to deter Russia. Despite the fact that the Russian side says it does not want to clash with NATO, relations between the two sides are complicated. The situation between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new inflection point, and 2024 will be an extraordinary year.
Crash
A Russian Il-76 transport plane crashed in Belgorod Oblast, carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners. The Russian side accused Ukraine of launching a missile strike, which caused the plane to crash. The Ukrainian side denied it and said it could not confirm that it was its missile that shot it down. The occurrence of the incident may lead to an escalation of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, making it difficult for the two sides to negotiate peace. Ukraine** Zelensky strongly condemned Russia and regarded the incident as a "toy" with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners. Behind the incident may be Ukraine's desire to continue fighting due to the loss of support, and the United States, in order to maintain its dominance in Europe, may avoid negative consequences for Biden by supporting Ukraine. In addition, NATO has launched large-scale military exercises to deter Russia. Despite the fact that the Russian side says it does not want to clash with NATO, relations between the two sides are complicated. The situation between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new inflection point, and 2024 will be an extraordinary year.
The accusations of the Russian side and the denial of the Ukrainian side are the same
In the crash, the Russian side was quick to blame Ukraine for firing a missile, which caused the plane to crash. However, Ukraine denied responsibility and said it could not confirm that the missile shot down the plane. Such recrimination makes the truth of the incident confusing, and it is difficult to judge who is responsible. This also laid the groundwork for further confrontation between the two sides.
The position of Ukraine
Ukraine** Zelensky expressed strong condemnation of the incident, viewing it as a "toy" with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners. Taking a stand against Ukraine's resolute attitude in the face of similar incidents may make the chances of dialogue slim. Zelensky's position may also be a response to public opinion in order to assert his leadership.
U.S. support and considerations
Ukraine may want to continue fighting because of the loss of support, while the United States is likely to maintain its dominance in Europe by supporting Ukraine and avoid negative consequences for Biden. This consideration makes the Ukrainian issue a regional conflict, between the great powers. The position of the United States on how to deal with Ukraine will have a profound impact on the situation.
NATO's deterrence posture
NATO has launched a large-scale military exercise to deter Russia. Despite Russia's reluctance to clash with NATO, the purpose of the exercises is clearly to send a strong warning to Russia. The complex relationship between the two sides has made regional stability uncertain and the situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict delicate.
Outlook
The situation between Russia and Ukraine has entered a new inflection point, and 2024 will be an extraordinary year. The development of events depends on the decisions of the parties and the influence of external forces. If all parties are able to engage in dialogue and seek common solutions, conflicts of magnitude may be avoided. However, considerations, pressure from public opinion, and the impact of external support have complicated the development of the situation. As the move towards uncertainty, all parties keep a cool head and try to find a solution.