I'm a creator of science and technology Everything is a cycle.
Recently, the market value of China Shenhua exceeded 670 billion, surpassing the market value of CATL of 650 billion in one fell swoop, which sparked market discussions.
Some people believe that the traditional energy leader surpasses the new energy leader, releasing a signal, they believe that the rise of traditional energy, new energy will enter a downward cycle.
In fact, there is no direct competition between the old and the new energy sources. CATL mainly produces power batteries, while China Shenhua has a traditional coal business, and the two businesses are not in conflict.
As a leading company in the global new energy field, CATL's share price decline is mainly caused by factors such as overcapacity in the industry. China's Shenhua's surge was driven by rising demand for coal and electricity in the winter.
In the past two years, the new energy market has been a blue ocean, because the demand is greater than the supply, the power battery manufacturers have a relatively large voice. Due to the sudden outbreak of the new energy vehicle industry, as the most important component of new energy vehicles, the relationship between automobile manufacturers and power battery manufacturers is relatively delicate.
As we all know, in the past two years, most of the auto brands** under the new car-making forces have been concentrated between 200,000 yuan and 400,000 yuan. Since the power battery is one of the largest cost components of new energy vehicles, and as a new energy market, it is also more willing to give a higher valuation.
Driven by this demand, the upstream raw materials have soared, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has even skyrocketed from tens of thousands of yuan a ton to more than 600,000 yuan a ton in a year. Many companies have seen the profits in this, and many companies have started a vigorous cross-border movement in order to obtain a higher valuation.
More and more enterprises are pouring into the new energy industry, in just one or two years, the industry has changed from the blue ocean to the red ocean, due to the higher and higher penetration rate of new energy vehicles, its growth rate has begun to slow down, the industry's expectations for lithium battery have begun to weaken, and the huge production capacity released by these enterprises has made the entire industry quickly enter the era of surplus.
In this context, the first level of battery-grade lithium carbonate began to fall sharply, once falling below the 100,000 yuan mark. But this conduction of ** is not reflected in the terminal.
After entering 2023, Tesla took the lead in provoking the first war to bring the entire new energy vehicle market into a state of accelerated competition, new energy vehicle companies in order to seize more markets, so the terminal needs to follow the market adjustment, but the bargaining power between car companies and giant enterprises such as CATL is not strong, so some car companies have also begun to develop their own batteries in order to reduce costs. Therefore, from this perspective, it has formed a direct competition relationship with CATL.
Under this trend, the market began to react in advance. Therefore, since the end of 2021, the new energy sector dominated by CATL has begun to go all the way, and in more than two years, the market value of the leading CATL has evaporated by more than 1,000 billion, and the growth rate of revenue has also shown signs of slowing down.
Compared with CATL, China Shenhua, a representative of traditional energy, does not have a surplus problem. In the long run, in fact, since 2014, China Shenhua has been in an upward cycle, on the one hand, thanks to stable earning ability, and on the other hand, because of stable dividend capacity.
Statistics show that from 2014 to 2022, China Shenhua's average annual dividend rate is 83%, while the dividend rate in 2022 is 7277%, higher than the 60% of the dividend commitment, and far more than the industry average of 4434%。In addition, the company's discretionary cash is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2023, and there will be no significant increase in capital expenditure in the short term, and there is no large debt repayment demand.
In the current environment, it is understandable that China Shenhua is favored, and the company's current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is less than 11 times, and although it has been for several years, its valuation is not expensive.
Kanjian Finance believes that since there is no direct competition between the two, it makes no sense to compare the two together, so the market value of China Shenhua surpasses that of CATL, which does not mean that traditional energy "beats" new energy.