CCTV:February 17th,The box office of the 2024 Spring Festival movie will exceed 8 billion, breaking the record of Chinese film history. The average ticket price is 50 yuan, compared with 52 yuan for the Spring Festival last year3 yuan slightly lowered. The downward trend of the film market is obvious, with the box office share of third- and fourth-tier cities accounting for more than 54%, significantly higher than last year's 50%.
Fliggy:The Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has become the most popular Spring Festival tourism holiday in history, and the number of domestic travel bookings has greatly exceeded the same period in 2019Among them, medium and long-term tours increased by more than 3 times year-on-yearThe average travel date of FIT increased by 30% year-on-year. Outbound travel also hit a four-year peak, with bookings increasing nearly 10 times year-on-year.
Macroeconomics
1. China Railway Group:On February 16 (the seventh day of the first lunar month), the national railway sent 1528 passengers80,000 people,For three consecutive days, the number of passengers sent in a single day during the Spring Festival has reached a new high. On February 17 (the eighth day of the first lunar month), the last day of the Spring Festival holiday, the national railway is expected to send 16.2 million passengers, and 2,256 passenger trains will be added, and the railway Spring Festival transportation capacity arrangement will reach a new high.
2. Chan Kwok-ki, Chief Secretary for Administration of Hong Kong:At present, residents of 49 cities across the country can come to Hong Kong on their ownThe Hong Kong government is discussing with the mainland how to increase the number of citiesThe "one visa for multiple lines" measure is also being studied. At present, there are more than 3.9 million arrivals and departures, of which about 750,000 are visitors to Hong Kong and 650,000 are from the Mainland, an increase from 640,000 in 2018 before the epidemic.
3. **Meteorological Observatory:At 6 o'clock on February 17, the yellow warning for cold wave will continue to be issued, and it is expected that from February 17 to 22, most parts of China will have a sharp cooling from west to east and from north to southTemperatures generally drop by 8-12,The temperature in Xinjiang, most of North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai and other places will drop by 12-18.
4. Interface news: After the supply of Hainan outlying islands has increased, the trend of air tickets has fallen from a high level. On February 16, China Eastern Airlines MU8548 Sanya Phoenix-Shanghai Pudong flight still has a small number of economy class tickets on sale, ** at 3420 yuan, but it has been sold out. On February 17, there is no direct flight ticket between Sanya and Shanghai, and on February 18, Juneyao Airlines ho1128 Sanya Phoenix-Shanghai Hongqiao flight will be open to economy class ticket standby, ** for 3160 yuan.
Real estate dynamics
1. Shanghai Securities News: Bank of China has taken the initiative to connect with the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism in many places. In response to the list of the first batch of real estate projects pushed by the Guangzhou Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism, the Guangdong Branch of the People's Bank of China immediately and efficiently organized the mapping of demand, and successfully issued real estate development loans of 65 million yuan and 25 million yuan respectively to the Zhiling Holiday Garden Project, a local private real estate enterprise in Guangzhou, and the Yuewan Project, a national private real estate enterprise, on February 6 and 7, respectively.
2. Middle Index Institute: The adjustment of the Wuhan property market is close to the bottom areaThe scale of land supply and demand has increased, the transfer conditions have been optimized, and "small but fine" plots are sought after. The scale of commercial housing has stabilized at more than 10 million square meters, still ranking among the top 3 in the country. The relaxation of purchase restrictions has promoted the volume increase and price stability in the main urban areas, and the proportion of transactions in the far urban areas has decreased.
3. Shanghai Provident Fund Management Center:According to the relevant provisions of the Administrative Measures for Personal Housing Loans of Shanghai Housing Provident Fund (Shanghai Provident Fund Management Committee No. 5, 2023), the maximum loan limit of the provident fund will be announced and implemented by the Municipal Provident Fund Management Committee according to the direction of real estate market regulation, the city's housing consumption level, and the per capita income of the society. The proposal has been recorded for study in due course.
Stocktaking
1. The Paper:A few days ago, MSCI regularly announced the results of the quarterly index review and adjusted the index targets, newly transferred 4 A-shares including Midea Group, China Merchants Highway, MGI, and Samsung Medical, and transferred out 48 A-shares such as Siruipu, Honglu Steel Structure, Puluo Pharmaceutical, and Yihualu. According to industry insiders, on the whole, the adjustment of MSCI routine targets has little impact on A-shares. The inclusion ratio of 20% of A-shares has not changed, and the transfer in and out is basically two-way balancedThe share of A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index was virtually unchanged.
2. Xinhua News Agency:In 2023,The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors (NAFMII) has filed investigations against 52 institutions121 self-discipline sanctions were imposed, involving 61 institutions and 60 responsible persons. We will continue to promote the construction of market discipline with strict tone and strict measures, and supervise all kinds of business entities to return to their responsibilities through strict punishment.
Krypton:Amazon founder Jeff Bezos bought another 12 million shares of the company on Tuesday and Wednesday, worth about 20$300 millionThis month, it has been the first three times, and the cumulative cash has exceeded 6 billion US dollars. Bezos could end up with as many as 50 million shares of Amazon.
Wealth Focus
1. State Administration of Taxation:In 2023, affected by the improvement of the international situation,China has handled a total of about 1 export tax rebates8 trillion yuan. We will continue to deepen cross-border services and better support opening-up.
2. Xiabu Group:From the first day of the Spring Festival to the seventh day of the Lunar New Year,Its brands such as Xiabu Xiabu, Xiabuxiabu, Zhan Yao, and Cha Mi Cha have received more than 1.6 million consumers. A total of 31 Xiabu Xiabu restaurants broke historical sales records, and the overall consumption showed the characteristics of "homecoming tide"; At the same time, restaurants around popular scenic spots such as Wangfujing and Disney have also ushered in big sales.
3. Financial breakfast:Hot spots out non-stop, track what you want to hear. What are the Chinese New Year travel trends? How can young people change their understanding of the Spring Festival from "escaping rituals" in previous years to "being willing to participate and take the initiative to build"? How can we show that young people are finally coming of age? Why have young consumers become the main force of gold store consumption? More news that young people are watching,Fortune friends, scroll to the end of the article to check out today's financial secretarial tracking @trend, and if you like, check it out every week!
Industry Watch
1. Ctrip:During the Spring Festival holiday, cultural and tourism consumption soared, becoming the main force driving residents' consumption. Among them, domestic tourism, outbound tourism, and inbound tourism blossomed in many places, all of which increased significantly year-on-year and exceeded the level of the same period in 2019; Ticket orders for domestic scenic spots increased by more than 6% year-on-yearTicket orders for overseas scenic spots increased by more than 130% compared to 2019.
2. Alipay:After four years, the Spring Festival has once again become the peak period of global tourism consumption, and it has shown an obvious "two-way" warming trend. During the Spring Festival, the number of overseas purchases by users has been 107% of the level of the same period in 2019Among them, the consumption amount increased by 140% year-on-year.
3. China Development Bank:In 2023, we will focus on key areas such as national logistics hubs, national backbone cold chain logistics bases, and material reserves, and increase medium and long-term financing support. More than 40 billion yuan of medium and long-term loans in the logistics and circulation industry were issued throughout the yearProvide strong financial support for promoting the construction of a modern logistics system.
4. Ministry of Water Resources:Strictly establish green small hydropower demonstration power stations, strengthen training for demonstration creation, strictly establish audit checks, and strengthen the daily supervision of demonstration power stations. In 2024, more than 80 new green small hydropower demonstration power stations will be addedActively coordinate the introduction of incentive policies.
5. China Railway Shanghai Bureau Group:February 17 (the eighth day of the first lunar month) is the last day of the Spring Festival holiday, and the Yangtze River Delta Railway ushered in the highest peak of return passenger flowIt is expected to send 2.66 million passengers on the same dayIt is planned to add 568 passenger trains and reconnect 191 EMU trains to ensure the safe and orderly travel of passengers in a large passenger flow environment.
6. Beijing News:The world's first C919 jumbo passenger aircraft took off from Shanghai in preparation for the Singapore Airshow 2024. Five domestically produced aircraft produced by COMAC, including China Eastern Airlines C919, will be unveiled to the public during the air showIt was the first time to make an overseas "group" appearance.
7. Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Association:In 2023, the wholesale number of A00-class sedans will be 89340,000 units, the wholesale sales of manufacturers decreased by 30%; The number of domestic retail sales is 95070,000 units, with a cumulative decrease of 12% in retail sales. January 2024 wholesale 8460,000 units, accounting for 9 percent of the wholesale share68%, up 222% year-on-year and down 45% month-on-month; The micro-car market has recently become the main market for electric vehicles.
8. Haikou Traffic Management Bureau:As of 9 o'clock on February 17, the total number of cars booked to leave the island on that day was about 20,200, about 5,200 had left the island, and about 15,000 were waiting to leave the island. Affected by heavy fog from the early morning to the morning of the 16th,At present, the waiting depots of the three ports of Haikou are saturated.
9. Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Culture and Tourism:During the Spring Festival, the city received a total of 1,675 tourists950,000 person-timesa year-on-year increase of about 50%; The total amount of tourism consumption transactions including food, accommodation, transportation, travel, shopping, and entertainment was 191$2.2 billion; The average room occupancy rate of star-rated hotels was 53%, a year-on-year increase of 15 percentage points.
10. Sichuan Provincial Department of Culture and Tourism:As of 15 o'clock on February 16, the province included 833 A-level tourist attractions in the statistics, receiving 537 tourists60,000 person-times, achieving ticket revenue of 6,253180,000 yuan,Year-on-year growth respectively. 63%；Compared with the same caliber in the same period in 2019, they increased respectively. 86%。
Company news
1. Interface News:It is reported that OpenAI has completed a transaction that allows employees to ** shares in the company. The offer values the AI startup at $86 billion, in less than 10 monthsIts valuation has nearly tripled.
2. Xpeng Motors:From the beginning of the Spring Festival to February 16,The cumulative total mileage of intelligent driving is 271 times, a new high. On February 16, the number of smart parking in a single day also exceeded 40,000 for the first time since the Spring Festival.
3. UBS:Nvidia has dramatically shortened the lead time for AI GPUsIt has been shortened from 8-11 months at the end of last year to 3-4 months now. There are two possibilities, one is that the company is planning new ways to increase production capacity to meet future orders, and the other is that it already has enough capacity to handle the backlog of orders.
Global Vision
1. CCTV News: The Federal Reserve will test the ability of banks to withstand broader potential shocks this year. It is the first annual test since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in the United States in March last year. The test covers 32 banks with assets as low as $100 billion, and focuses on how banks are responding to a nearly 6% rise in unemployment5 percentage points, the results will be announced in June.
2. Every warp network:Recently, OpenAI announced the launch of a new generative AI model "SORA", which has attracted widespread attention. Even Tesla CEO Elon Musk was amazed by this and expressed his convincing attitude on social **. The market expects that in the latest round of funding, led by venture capital firm Thrive Capital,OpenAI's valuation is expected to exceed $80 billion.
3. CCTV News:Because Trump has exaggerated his net worth by billions of dollars, it constitutes serious fraud,A judge in the US state of New York imposed a penalty of more than 3$500 million fine,He was permanently barred from entering the New York real estate industry and significantly restricted his ability to do business in the state.
Financial data
1. AMAC:As of December 2023,The total scale of private asset management business of operating institutions is 1241 trillion yuan (excluding social security** and enterprise annuity). The number and scale of fixed income products accounted for the largest proportion of the four types of products, the number of mixed products ranked second, and the number and scale of derivatives products were smaller.
trend·
Young people are returning home:For most migrant workers in other places, their hometown is "the most familiar and unfamiliar destination". But it is worth noting that this year's Spring Festival,A group of young people who have been away all the year round no longer travel together, but choose to follow the online strategy to re-understand their hometown. Online note-taking guides, local recommendation lists, online store pages and other content allow young people to take advantage of the holiday to rediscover these memories of hometown life scenes. As "in-depth travel to the hometown" has become a travel trend during the Spring Festival, netizens who are resident in the local area have become "hometown guides" and are vying to share travel strategies on the platform. According to data from Meituan and Dianping, on the eve of the Spring Festival, the number of views of eating, drinking and playing notes in cities and towns across the country increased by 300% month-on-month, and the number of new notes increased by more than 120%; As a result, many small and medium-sized cities have also ushered in a "good start" for local consumption, with a three-day month-on-month increase of more than 200%.
Young people in the New Year:As the most important festival for Chinese, the Spring Festival has always been given many special meanings. It is particularly noteworthy that young people are becoming the breadwinners of their families and are beginning to play a central role in social relationships. For Chinese New Year,They have also changed from "escaping rituals" in previous years to "willing to participate and take the initiative to build", and are looking forward to celebrating the Spring Festival according to their own ideas. In each novel way of celebrating the New Year, young people's expectations for the future and their attitudes towards life are more vividly expressed during this period.
Young man drinking tea:How can it be said that a person has finally matured? Perhaps, it starts with falling in love with tea. If the first cup of tea for young people is milk tea, then in recent years, as the BMI index on the physical examination report has risen year by year, more and more young people have realized that it is time to say goodbye to sweet drinks. The slogan of "drink more hot water" has been shouted for so many years, and the heavy responsibility of "hydration" for young people still falls on tea after all. After all, boiled water is tasteless, and sweet drinks are too inconsistent with the health concept of contemporary people. Nowadays,More and more people are turning their attention to this ancient natural drink and are beginning to discover the joy of drinking tea.
Young people are consuming:Young consumers have become the main force of in-store consumptionThey have a soft spot for small gram weights and novel styles of jewelry, which makes these products sell considerably. It is understood that in addition to the traditional ** jewelry hot sales, the Year of the Dragon gold bars and some ** jewelry with the theme of the Year of the Dragon are also popular among consumers. These products not only imply auspiciousness, but also incorporate traditional cultural elements to meet consumers' needs for personalization and fashion. In 2024, the Federal Reserve is expected to start an interest rate cut cycle, and at the same time, the global central bank gold purchase trend continues, supporting the marginal demand of the world, thereby continuing to support the world. In the longer term, in the context of US debt expansion, US dollar credit damage, and global currency over-issuance, the long-term allocation logic of ** remains unchanged.