Recently, Xingwen County in Sichuan Province has issued a subsidy policy to encourage house purchases, which has caused heated discussions on the Internet.
It is said that the day after the "official announcement", the relevant article was deleted by the publisher.
Among them, the most concerned one is the measure to encourage enterprises to pay wages in advance and make down payments.
This kind of treatment was unimaginable to industrial workers in the past
Aren't many people complaining about not having the money to buy a house?
That's good, the down payment will be slowed down, and if you can't put it on first, people will directly spend 30 million to set up a special house purchase**.
If the down payment is less than 100,000 yuan, you can apply directly from this special **, and you can return it after two years, and you will not be charged interest in the first year.
Xingwen County's tax revenue in 2022 will only collect more than 800 million, and it is still sincere to spend 30 million yuan at once to help the workers and brothers buy houses.
What if it's still not enough?
It doesn't matter, we just want to do everything possible to help the worker brother buy a house, ** come forward to your boss and ask the boss to pay you in advance.
Yes, you read that right, the local government actually encourages enterprises to pay wages in advance, which you would dare to think before!
I have to say that in order to let the people buy a house, they are really heartbroken.
But just like netizens said:Saying a thousand things and ten thousand is not to reduce the price, as long as the house price is not reduced, everything is in vain.
Of course, you can find 11 million reasons why housing prices can't be ***, and even tie up the entire Chinese economy.
But it is true that on the road to encouraging the purchase of houses, almost all means except for lowering house prices are a bit of a fart off their pants.
China's property market, which has been galloping for 20 consecutive years, has been cold in recent years, and I once said that the era of high growth in the property market is gone.
Now people dare not buy houses and do not dare to consume, a big reason is that the leverage ratio of residents is too high, and their wealth is overdrawn in advance.
2011 In 2021, affected by the rapid growth of housing loans, the leverage ratio of China's residential sector rose by a total of 338 percentage points, the largest increase in the world.
According to statistics, the proportion of real estate debt to household income of urban residents in China has reached 1379%, up from 90% in the United States;
The proportion of interest payments paid by urban households in our country is equivalent to 15% of income, compared with 78%, Europe is generally 8%-9%.
Although the Spring Festival just passed is said to be "the hottest Spring Festival in history", the per capita consumption expenditure is only 90% of that in 2019.
GDP data is growing, CPI data is still lying below, but per capita consumption is falling, why?
It's not that ordinary people are burdened with a lot of debts one by one, and they dare not spend money, or even have no money to spend.
In this case, whether it is a deferred down payment or a down payment of advance salary, it is ostensibly to encourage the purchase of a houseIn fact, it is to let the people add another lever.
Advance wages for workers to make a down payment? What is the current situation of many enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, and they have no points in their hearts?
This set of combinations is basically the same as buying a house with zero down payment.
Lessons from the pastThe subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in '08 is not far awayYes.
Do you think, if a person can't even get a down payment, is there a high probability that he won't be able to repay the mortgage in the future?
Buying a house normally requires not only a down payment, but also proof of income, bank statements, etc., before the bank gives you a loan, and even the down payment income has to be checked before.
And the current economic environment, especially for migrant workers, is fine this month, maybe they will be unemployed next month, what should they do then?
If you really can't take back the house, will there be a systemic financial risk that they often say?
In the past two years, we have been dazzled by this fancy encouragement to buy a house.
Last year, we saw what garlic arrived at the house, and bought a house and sent gold bars.
Earlier, in August 2022, the leaders of Shimen County, Changde, Hunan Province, at the opening ceremony of a housing fair, asked local cadres to let go of their courage and take the lead in buying a house.
The relaxation of property market policies in first-tier cities before the Spring Festival, and the recent asymmetric interest rate cuts that exceeded expectations, all pointed to saving real estate.
In the context of the real estate downturn, the best people in various places are changing their flowers, desperately, and trying their best to encourage the purchase of houses.
The main thing is these four words: land finance.
It's not just Xingwen County that is in a hurry, all places are in a hurry.
Because the most closely related to real estate, in addition to banks, is the local **.
There are two main sources of local fiscal revenue, one is general public financial revenue, and the other is sexual revenue, and the main part of the latter is the income from land sales.
In the rapid development of real estate in the past two or three decades, real estate capital, financial capital and landowners have formed a close alliance.
In this alliance, the three of them perform their own duties, and it can be said that they have eaten most of the social wealth created by the 20 years of real estate boom.
In this process, finance and real estate capital are deeply bound, forming a very distinctive "land finance".
As long as this set of processes continues to operate, housing prices are stuck in the middle of the most immobile link, once housing prices **, selling, financial system pressure.
As for the future? What are the financial risks ahead? Future Debt Crisis? Future economic crisis?
Some people will say that it's my, who cares about the monstrous waves behind.
It's hard to say whether the losses of the people are big or not, but their losses are really big.
He Keng, former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the 2023 China Real Economic Development Conference, "There is a surplus of real estate now, and how many vacant houses there are, the figures estimated by various experts vary greatly, and 1.4 billion people may not be able to live in them."
Not only in 2024, but for a long time to come, we will inevitably witness a more fragmented real estate market.
Prices in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities are likely to remain relatively stable and even slightly in some hotspots due to their economic dynamism and demographic attractiveness.
But for those third- and fourth-tier cities with slowing economic growth and population outflows, continued housing prices may become the norm.
We all say that we are in the midst of a century of great change, and many people are not aware of it or have not really made changes.
The impact of the macro-political and economic environment on investment is huge.
Especially for the majority of middle-class families, the leverage cannot be increased, and for many people, it is unlikely that they will continue to invest heavily in domestic houses.
In China, as the two most important capital pools, the property market has played the role of "Wolong and Phoenix Chick" in recent years, which has once again deepened our "investment anxiety".