The cyclical operation of the economy is created by the contradiction between supply and demand, and the solution of the contradiction between supply and demand depends on the game of all parties in the market.
Pork is the most widely eaten meat on our Chinese table, our country has a long history of pig breeding, but in comparison, the time for the people to truly realize the freedom of pork is very short, which is not only due to the rapid development of productivity, but also thanks to the long-term peace and stability of our country.
The latest round of pig cycle ** originated from the African swine fever raging in 2018 around the world, economic globalization has led to the globalization of supply, and the disease has also spread globally, our country's strong swine fever prevention and control measures, although it has ensured the safety of the table, but also objectively caused a shortage of live pig supply in the market, and then pork ** soared all the way, until 30 yuan a pound in 2020, and then began to slowly turn down, whether it is individual farmers or large pig breeding enterprises in this round of pig cycle** , all of them have made a lot of profits, but this also laid the foundation for the later collapse of pork.
Because of the money-making effect, pig self-employed and pig enterprises have since carried out a large-scale pig expansion, and soon there was a surplus, in addition to the short-term pork price increase caused by transportation problems during the new crown epidemic lockdown, pig prices seem to have become sluggish until now, and investors who made money from buying pork stocks now rarely mention the pig cycle, it seems that the pig cycle has really disappeared! What I want to say is that the pig cycle has not disappeared, it has just been lengthened.
In fact, our country's pig breeding is just 10 years ago, or in the self-employed breeding-based, enterprise centralized breeding supplemented by the state, and pig seedlings mainly rely on imports, our own traditional pig seedlings due to the lack of market-oriented operation, almost on the verge of extinction, in addition to pig imports every year, the market also imports a large number of pigs from the United States and other countries to make up for the gap in the domestic market, as can be seen from the pork ** at that time. Under such a market premise, the changes in pork supply and demand are constrained by the two factors of unstable domestic supply and import restrictions, and it is not difficult to understand the characteristics of its ups and downs.
In fact, these problems are all getting attention, but the process of solving them has been relatively slow because there is no suitable opportunity. However, with the huge profits and fierce market competition brought by the cyclical pork driven by swine fever, as well as the arrival of these opportunities in the United States against our ** war, the domestic pig seedling breeding technology has developed rapidly, and the modern pig enterprises have also expanded rapidly.
Enterprise production is completely different from the production of individual entrepreneurs: enterprise breeding is the product of industrialization, focusing on scale, intensification and utility maximization; The self-employed aquaculture production is essentially the product of the small-scale farmer economy, small scale, extensive operation, due to the lack of information support, the scale of production is often arbitrary, lack of utility thinking, which is also the reason why the market-based market often has high volatility. With the gradual replacement of self-employed pig breeding by enterprise pig breeding, pork has become relatively stable, and the cost of pig breeding has become lower and lower, so we have seen the current slump of pork.
In addition, compared with the self-employed, enterprises also have the advantage of capital tools, enterprises in the process of pig breeding, enterprises can enter the market, hedging pork, if pork enterprises can earn profits from breeding; If there is a loss in the operation of pork, hedging can also hedge the loss part, coupled with the fact that the enterprise has bank loans, market issuance and other financing channels, its tossing and turning space is very large, far from being comparable to individual farmers.
In the fourth quarter of last year, pork appeared, many analysts attributed the main reason to the acceleration of the clearance of pig excess capacity, the author believes that it is a lack of consideration, now to analyze pork enterprises, can not copy the previous logic, whether it is the main body of pork production, or the contradiction between supply and demand of pork, there have been visible changes to the naked eye, not so much that it is the stock price ** caused by the possible supply and demand gap of pigs in the future, but rather the stock price caused by similar reasons to the expectation of market dominance of the head wine companies. When an industry matures, the leading companies that have finally gained a relatively monopoly position must have the right to speak, and they are called value-oriented enterprises because of their stable profitability and dividend distribution ability. Now that our pork market has gradually entered a mature industry like developed countries, the return of the value of the stock price of the head pork companies is the only way.
Therefore, although the pig price is a lot, it does not mean that it will rise back to 30 yuan in the future, although the pig cycle seems to be invalid, but in fact, it is still there, but it is slowly transformed from a strong cycle industry to a weak cycle industry, which is the correct understanding posture.
Investment is not to hold on to the incomplete, must keep pace with the times, welcome everyone to like and pay attention, and the author to keep pace with the times and talk about investment.