Arrogant! The Philippines ** visited Japan and said from the heart: China's Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal can't feed the Philippines!
Analysts generally believe that Marcos' visit to Japan shows Marcos' intention to cooperate with Japan in developing resources in the South China Sea. Behind the scenes, this is not just a simple economic decision, but a deliberate geopolitical strategy.
The Philippine economy has been in a slump, especially after the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, which hit the economy hard, with GDP growth falling sharply. Many Filipinos have had to travel abroad to earn a living because of the deteriorating employment environment. Against this backdrop, Marcos seems to be hoping for a quick economic recovery by grabbing resources in the South China Sea.
However, such an act is clearly a provocation to China-Philippines relations. In particular, Marcos's request for Japan to send additional troops in the South China Sea to "confront" China during his time in Japan is undoubtedly a blatant provocation. On the South China Sea issue, the Philippines' so-called "sovereignty claim" does not actually comply with the provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, while China's claim to sovereignty over islands and reefs in the South China Sea has a more adequate legal basis.
Why, then, did Marcos take such a tough stance to "argue" with China?
The main reason lies in the structural problems of the Philippine economy. The Philippines has long relied on tourism and labor exports as the pillars of its economy, and lacks strong endogenous growth drivers. This has led to a difficult economic struggle for the country's economy, forcing Marcos** to seek financial gains through quick and illegal means.
Japan and the Philippines have a high degree of similarity on the South China Sea issue. Japan is highly dependent on overseas oil and gas resources, and is eager to obtain low-cost and high-security energy from neighboring regions. As a result, Japan has responded positively to Marcos' proposal for cooperation in order to obtain resources in the South China Sea.
However, in the Philippines, there are also some rational voices pointing out that Marcos's move may seriously damage the economic and trade relations between China and the Philippines. Considering that China is the largest partner of the Philippines, with a bilateral volume of $66.3 billion in 2020, damaging relations with China would be extremely detrimental to the Philippine economy.
Against this backdrop, China needs to guard against possible provocations such as "joint patrols" or "joint military exercises" in the South China Sea. In the long run, in order to completely curb other countries' provocations in the South China Sea, China needs to strengthen effective control over important islands and reefs such as Ren'ai Jiao and Scarborough Shoal.
In the face of potential cooperation and provocation by Japan and the Philippines in the South China Sea, China must adopt a firm and prudent strategy. First, China needs to act aggressively in the field of diplomacy and international law to refute and resolve disputes through peaceful and effective means. This includes using multilateral forums and international organizations, such as the United Nations, to articulate China's legitimate rights and interests in the South China Sea and to seek broader international support.
China must continue to strengthen its military presence and defense capabilities in the South China Sea. This involves not only modernizing naval forces, such as increasing the number of aircraft carriers and advanced destroyers, but also upgrading the combat capabilities of the Air Force and Marine Corps to ensure a swift and effective response to any form of provocation.
China needs to keep a close eye on the dynamics of military cooperation between the Philippines and Japan and be prepared for any provocations that may arise. This means that China must not only be militarily vigilant, but also step up its diplomatic and intelligence-gathering efforts to fully understand the intentions and actions of the other side.
In the face of provocative actions by Japan and the Philippines in the South China Sea, China needs to adopt a multidimensional strategy, not only strengthening its own military capabilities, but also using diplomatic and international law to maintain regional peace and stability. This is the key to solving the problem.