The U.S. Air Force recently announced that the B-21** strategic bomber has entered the low-speed mass production phase, just two months after the B-21 made its maiden flight in November 2023. This news has raised concerns and questions from the outside world: why is the United States in such a hurry to promote the production of the B-21? Has the technology and performance of the B-21 reached the expected level? What impact does the mass production of the B-21 have on the strategic strike capabilities of the United States and the deterrence of China?
Generally speaking, the development of a new type of flight combat platform, whether it is a fighter or a bomber, needs to go through a long process from test flight to mass production, which usually takes 5-10 years. In this process, the aircraft needs to undergo a variety of tests and verifications to ensure the maturity and reliability of its technology, as well as meet various performance indicators and operational requirements. For example, China's FC-31 fighter, although it took a short time from project approval to first flight, is still a long way from mass production. If China wants to develop a first-class strategic bomber, it may face greater technical challenges and risks, and the time from test flight to mass production will be longer.
The United States has also encountered many difficulties and delays in the development of advanced fighter jets such as the F-22 and F-35, and the time span from test flight to mass production is longer than that of similar models in China. Therefore, the United States was able to enter the stage of mass production so quickly in the development of the B-21, apparently for its own special reasons and considerations.
First of all, the US side believes that the technical risk of the B-21 is relatively low, because it is based on the flying wing layout design of the B-2, and the B-2 has more than 30 years of service experience, and its stealth technology and flight performance are relatively mature. In addition, the United States has adopted a large number of digital manufacturing projects in the development of the B-21, which can effectively shorten the design and production cycle of the aircraft and improve production efficiency and quality. The U.S. side said that the results of ground and flight tests of the B-21 show that the B-21's project maturity and manufacturing plan can meet the requirements of low-speed production.
Second, the U.S. side urgently needs the B-21 to enhance its strategic nuclear strike capability to form an effective deterrent to China. The B-21 is the future strategic bomber of the U.S. Air Force, which will replace the two older bombers, the B-2 and B-1B, and the U.S. Air Force plans to purchase at least 100 B-21s for deployment and mission worldwide. Although the B-21 is smaller than the B-2, it has more advanced stealth characteristics, can carry out penetrating strikes in complex air defense environments, and is also considered to be the world's first sixth-generation aircraft, which can be used as the core network node of the US military's air strike combat system. The mass production and deployment of the B-21 will give the US Air Force a more powerful strategic deterrent and pose a greater threat to China.
Third, the United States needs to eliminate the two old bombers, the B-2 and B-1B, as soon as possible, because their combat readiness level and maintenance costs are very low. Both the B-2 and B-1B were developed in the 80s of the last century and have been in service for more than 30 years, and their technology and performance have lagged behind the times, making it difficult to adapt to the needs of modern warfare. The stealth coating of the B-2 requires frequent maintenance, while the airframe and engine of the B-1B often fail, resulting in low availability and safety for them. Not long ago, there was a B-1B crash in the US Air Force, but fortunately, the pilot ejected in time to escape. The US Air Force hopes to be able to replace the B-21 and B-2B with the B-1 as soon as possible in order to save maintenance costs and increase combat effectiveness.
Fourth, the U.S. side must accelerate the production of B-21 to reduce the negative impact of inflation on the project. Due to the fiscal deficit and monetary dewatering in the United States, the inflation rate in the United States has reached the highest level in 40 years, which has put great pressure on both US military spending and military industrial enterprises. Northrop Grumman, the main contractor for the B-21, asked the Pentagon for a low-speed production contract back in 2023 because inflation has led to an increase in production costs, and if the scale of production is not large enough, the company will not be able to make a profit, and may even lose money. Therefore, the United States needs to increase the production of B-21 as soon as possible to reduce unit costs and improve economic benefits.
To sum up, the U.S. side announced that the B-21 would enter the low-speed mass production stage two months after its first flight, out of many considerations and interests. The B-21 has relatively low technical risk, and digital manufacturing engineering can shorten production cycles. The mass production and deployment of the B-21 can enhance the strategic nuclear strike capability of the United States and form an effective deterrent to China. The production of the B-21 can replace the B-2 and B-1B, two old bombers, saving maintenance costs and improving combat effectiveness. The production of B-21 can reduce the negative impact of inflation on the project and improve economic efficiency. But is there really no problems and hidden dangers with such a B-21? Are the Americans once again going too fast, ignoring some important details and risks? These issues deserve our continued attention and analysis.