Text: Wei Zhou
This winter break, parents are experiencing a consumption downgrade that is visible to the naked eye.
Not long ago, "Piano Crash" was on the hot search. Last year, half of the piano factories went bankrupt, and those who learned and sold the piano seemed to disappear overnight. Not only pianos, but also some of the camps that were blowout before and after the epidemic could not be sold, and some well-known camps could be reported on a daily basis, but they were not full until the camp opened. After the consumption downgrade, both camps and trips disappeared from the parents' list ......
Parents are now aware of the reality, and if you haven't, then the situation will help you realize that something is really happening, and when all walks of life are under the pressure of the economic downturn, the storm outside will sooner or later affect the small family.
Not only is the wallet deflated, but the impact of AI is also greater than you think, and the marginal effect of involution is decreasing, and it may even become meaningless.
01. The crisis of interest classes
The changes are already visible.
Overnight, the piano suddenly could not be sold, and now the sales volume is only equivalent to 15% of the peak, and the piano that was bought for 50,000 or 60,000 yuan before is now 5,000 yuan and no one wants it. Originally, after learning the piano, it was necessary to change the piano roughly every 5 years, but because the number of piano learners has dropped sharply, the market will inevitably shrink.
Although this trend has been showing signs since 2019, it has since accelerated its decline, and after April 2023, piano sales have fallen off a cliff, said the deputy secretary general of a musical instrument association
"Those who learn the piano and those who buy it seem to have disappeared out of thin air overnight. ”Ten years ago, there were too many children to learn the piano, but now? There are still those who are willing to learn, so they have to be coaxed.
A senior piano teacher complained that three or four years ago he earned tens of thousands of yuan a month by teaching piano in Beijing, but now it is only one-tenth of the original amount.
Although the number of people taking the piano test in the country has not decreased, it is a stock, and the increase has been greatly insufficient. As a result, the ABRSM has been withdrawn in many cities.
Of course, it is not only the piano that is cold, and the title of a recent report of Sanlian Life Weekly has pointed out the problem: "The "First Sword" of Middle-class Consumption Downgrade, "Chop" to the Baby's Interest Class".
For many parents, the original interest class is just the "icing on the cake" thing, in order to let the child develop a little more talent and interest, it may be somewhat useful when going to school, but this is no matter how and the "serious thing" of going to school and reading can not be compared, like when you have spare money, you can taste some interesting snacks, but after all, it is not a meal.
Not only that, children's time and parents' money are limited, piano exams, Go lessons, ballet, ice skating, ......Which one doesn't cost money to spend time?
Unless the child is really gifted and can take the career route, most parents do not expect their children to have many specialties in these interests, but should always beware of their "playthings".
"Originally, I just wanted this kid to learn some Go and develop his intelligence, but I didn't expect that now he is so addicted that he can't even delay brushing papers. ”In this case, when the economy is in a downturn and you have to live within your means, the "useless but very scrapped" interest class has become a drastic budget cut by parents.
After all, income expectations are not good, non-essential needs have to be cut first, and the result of consumption downgrade is that parents find that they can find some more cost-effective replacements, eliminate some unnecessary interest classes, and cut out all the dispensable, and focus on the really important things.
In an interview with "Cover News", an industry insider revealed that there are two main reasons for the current changes:
First of all, the city that was happy to pay for interest classesMiddle-class parents have had their incomes affected to a certain extent, and an interest class like learning piano becomes embarrassing;As the Triptych report said:Secondly, this is a concentrated outbreak of everyone's "chicken baby" and "roll can't move", both teachers and parents feel itSince the result can't be rolled up, it's better to simply forget it"It's so hard to get a musical instrument, it's better to go out and travel with this money, let off the wind in the suburbs, and do something happy." ”
"For parents' money bags, there are three types of interest classes: those that must participate, those who can participate or not, and those who do not have to participate. The last category is the bottom line that parents have to keep. ......As long as parents have a clear enough understanding of their genes and the filter of their children's mothers is broken enough thoroughly, the money saved from the interest class is beyond your imagination. ”
In other words, in the past, when they had plenty of money, parents still felt that they might as well let their children develop more interests, but now they have to re-evaluate: what are the results of practicing piano, ballet and Go? Is that the material for your own child? If you don't plan to eat here in the future, you might as well stop immediately.
What's more, it has been notified two or three years in advance: from 2024, the college entrance examination will stop art enrollment. Art students have to think clearly, don't expect their specialties to be extra or be admitted with reduced scores in the future, they can only take pure art majors.
For some institutions with extracurricular interests, this is not only a problem of losing some students, but a blow to the bottom of the pot, because fields like this usually have a "self-sustaining" characteristic: as long as there are enough students, even if they can't rely on professional food in the future, they can at least teach staff.
Over the years, the piano fever has caused an increase in the supply of piano teachers, and there was a remote piano training app before, which solved the work of many young graduates, but now it is gone, which is a systemic crisis for the entire industry.
What does this mean for parents, students, and teachers?
02. Return to the essence of education
There are no doubt that there are signs that urban middle-class parents are now calmly re-evaluating their education investments and identifying what their children really need.
If education is like an investment plan for talent development in the minds of these parents, then the first point to measure the return on investment (ROI) is, of course, to rationally evaluate the results that can be seen and felt.
This is like after the market is overheated, people's consumption behavior gradually returns to rationality, "only choose the right one, not the expensive one".
In the minds of many parents, most of the interest classes for their children are indeed more like a kind of consumption behavior, and they are still luxury consumption - you might as well buy it when you have spare money, but when your hands are tight, this can't be eaten as a meal after all, and you have to cut these luxury goods first with the first knife.
It is precisely for this reason that, in a sense, it is normal to do this now, because what is really "abnormal" is actually the previous overheating.
At one time, 80% of the world's 50 million piano children were in China, even in terms of population proportion, it was much higher than the European countries where classical ** originated.
A teacher who has been engaged in education for many years also said that the piano market is not necessarily a bad thing when it encounters a cold winter, because education should not become a market
"Buying more pianos does not mean that the family's education foundation is good. Taking advantage of this cold industry situation, I think it would be a good thing if everyone could consider the impact of aesthetic education on the future of education more calmly. ”However, there is a more complicated side to the story. After all, it is needless to say that when many parents cut interest classes, the focus of consideration is not so much to rationally weigh the growth potential of their children in specific interests, but to control the budget cost, because the starting point of the current cut project is to reduce the income of parents, rather than to readjust the training plan.
What's more, just think about it, you know what children can practice when they practice the piano, and it is very likely that they will not be able to see it after practicing for a few years (if the parents are laymen, it will be even more difficult to see), but how much money they will put into it every year is clear at a glance.
One of my children's classmates had a mother's way of educating her in the same way: she was more like managing her subordinates than educating her children.
She herself relied on her own ability and hard work to achieve success in the workplace step by step, becoming a "new Shanghainese", and now she also hopes that her children will replicate their success, so she pays great attention to her children's education, but her approach is like a CEO evaluating KPIs - she enrolls her children in many different interest classes, from skating to Go, but if one semester does not work, she will stop and change again.
At first glance, this is very efficient, and it also avoids the investment that has no results, which can be called "product manager parenting": only look at which one has the best results, and resolutely cut off those who don't. However, her son suffered deeply: after all, he was only a primary school student, and he couldn't get grades in such a short time, not to mention that every area of interest has a deep doorway, practicing piano and playing Go, how much can he learn in a semester?
He often felt a little bit of the doorway and was a little interested, but his mother couldn't wait anymore and didn't see him effective, so she helped him stop.
This is not only his opportunity to go deeper is interrupted repeatedly, but more importantly, I am afraid that it will plant a frustration in his heart: he has tried a lot, but he always disappoints his mother, and he can't satisfy her.
This is not to say that parents should not re-evaluate their educational investments, but in such a re-evaluation, we need to pay special attention to returning autonomy to children
Maybe the child does not have obvious results in the short term, but he likes it very much, and there is no need for parents to be so utilitarian and respect the child's interests; Unlike adults, many children don't have much of a concept of money, and they don't spend a penny on biking in the countryside and nature observation, but they may be more engaged and more interested in climbing interest classes than you spend a lot of money on.
If the current changes mean a return to rationality in the education market, then this rationality should not only be the "economic rationality" of parental control over budgets, but should be a key issue of re-rationalizationWhat kind of person do we want our children to be?
Parents' wallets should be considered, but more importantly, decisions should be made based on the child's potential and strengths
Get to know your children well, listen to their opinions, and stop learning those things that she doesn't want to learn if they don't learn well, even if it doesn't cost much; However, those that he or she is very interested in investing in, even if they do not achieve results for a while and cost a lot of money, it is necessary to consider carefully.
For the industry, after the original excitement subsided, it is not so much a "return to rationality" as a "return to the essence of education", any teaching is not just to provide students with a consumer product, a kind of window dressing skills, in order to earn some tuition, but should be sincerely for the growth of children, tap their inner potential, to help them grow.
Teachers are often more aware of their children's strengths in these areas than parents, or even children themselves, and sincere advice can sometimes affect a person's life.
What is Education? That's education.