I really don't know what words to use to describe the current corn market.
Said before"The house leak happened to rain overnight"., said yesterday"Take advantage of your illness to kill you"., Thinking about it today, I can only describe it in one sentence, the current corn market isWu Zetian has lost her husband - she has lost her mind (Li Zhi)!
We have analyzed before that the center of gravity of corn ** has shifted downward, which is normal. Because the first two ** are special in a special background, and now the background has changed, so corn must also return to its own supply and demand background.
ButSuch a fall is really unbearable and abnormal.
Falling four or five times a day, deep processing is playing hard to reduce prices, and the "Chinese prefix" is also frequently loweredThis is a ** decline, it's just a rush to kill.
And there are two reasons why it hurts:
The first is emotional killing.
I don't know if you have noticed it, but in the past two years, the influence of emotions in the market has become more and more significantDon't look at it as inconspicuous, and it can't change the overall supply and demand of the market, but it can stir up the water in the market, and it can also set off a lot of storms.
For example, take corn as an example, the increase in yield and the decline in demand are objective realities, and it is also the background of the downward shift of the center of gravity of corn, but such a decline is the mood is boosting.
This sentiment is not only the mood of this year, but also includes:In the first two years, corn went up, and the pressure on deep processing costs soared, so we had to maintain low inventory for a long time.
Second, the situation of corn has indeed given the confidence to reduce the price of deep processing.
The pressure to sell corn after the harvest is actually there every year, which is nothing new, but this year it is very fresh.
What is new is not the selling pressure itself, but the decline in everyone's confidence in the corn market.
Every year after the corn harvest will face the problem of selling pressure, but this does not necessarily appear every year, when the confidence in the corn market has increased greatly, the same purchase sentiment is also relatively strong, ** business, drying towers, etc. are also grabbing grain, but this year has changed.
The demand of feed enterprises is tepid, and the first business and drying tower simply stop harvesting, and the purchase of corn falls on the body of deep processing.
In fact, the amount of corn consumed by deep processing does not fluctuate much every year, and has fluctuated around 50 million or 60 million tons in recent years.
For example, in 2022, the national consumption of corn deep processing will be about 53.66 million tons, and in 2023, the consumption of downstream products will be downgraded, and the consumption of corn starch will show a negative growth mode, and the overall consumption will be lower.
Last year, the corn yield was bumper and the yield increased, and it was obvious that such a huge magnitude was all smashed into deep processing, even if the deep processing was harvested at full capacity, it could not be digested.
The amount is large, and then there is a bargaining mood, and the corn falls like this.
But that's when worse news came.
There is an institutional analysis,According to the progress of the purchase and sale of domestic corn in 2023, as well as the amount of ground grain and stack grain in the hands of farmers, the peak of corn on the market has not yet appeared.
On the one hand, from November to December last year, many places in the north ushered in a wide range of continuous snowfall weather, and traffic was blocked, which seriously affected the progress of corn purchase and sales.
On the other hand, corn has been in the doldrums, and many grain-holding entities are still immersed in the big ** in the previous two years, so the psychology of subscribing is not very high.
As a result, the market stock of grain is still very large.
But as soon as the news came out, the market panicked even more:Before the peak of grain sales, corn has fallen like this, so if the peak of grain sales starts, what will corn have to fall into?
The market's concerns are not unreasonable, but the current corn market has fallen into a strange circleThat is, the more it falls, the more it feels like it is not in the end, and the more it falls, the more no one collects.
So it's not necessarily all about selling pressure.
So, is there still a "rescue" for corn?
Welcome to pay attention to the new agricultural concept, and analyze the 3 life-saving straws of corn in the next episode.
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