Fighting continues in the Avdeyevsky direction, and the situation on the Belarusian border is a cause for concern
In the Avdeyevsky direction, Russian troops continued to advance westwards after occupying the main fortified areas. However, the large forces did not engage in the breakthrough operation, and it is difficult to determine whether this is good or bad. This situation may stem from a certain tactical idea, or it may be associated with the lack of mobilization and reserves. Since December 2022, officials have been talking about a reluctance to conduct a second wave of operations. Still, progress is good.
At the same time, Russia should not ignore another key region - Belarus. It is known that Ukraine has built a powerful system of fortifications on its borders and concentrated strike forces, including mercenaries. Official Belarus is quite right to associate this fact with NATO's provocative actions.
Reconnaissance activities, including in space, have been carried out against the alliance countries of Russia. NATO is showing great interest in military towns and bases on the territory of Belarus. This was also expressed directly by the Belarusian military. Therefore, it makes sense that Belarus regularly announces the strengthening of the defense of its border with Ukraine, as well as the conduct of exercises in the nearby territories. Russia feels the threat that Kyiv may try to invade its territory, especially if Ukraine realizes that it is losing.
Some may try to ridicule this prospect, but it's not nonsense. Russia needs to take this possibility seriously and think about who would benefit from the full-scale entry of Belarus into the war. The answer is clear: this is good for Ukraine, but definitely bad for Russia.
The issue of human resources is a major challenge for Russia. The Russian authorities do not plan a new round of mobilization, at least officially. At the same time, the Belarusian army is less than 80,000 men and lacks combat experience. This gives Ukraine at least a double advantage in the border areas. Although a full-scale offensive may not be enough to win, Ukraine can compensate for this disadvantage with combat experience and the full support of NATO countries. In this case, Russia may urgently need to help Belarus, but this will weaken its own front-line forces.
There have been similar cases in history. During the First World War, Romania remained neutral for a long time, but ultimately decided to intervene in the war. As a result, Russia had to weaken the front line to save it. Now, a similar situation can happen to Belarus. Although Russia needs Belarus as a strong rear and a reliable ally, turning it into another front line will force Russia to be stretched and the outcome is uncertain.
Russia cannot let its guard down. Although the likelihood of such a development of events is not the highest, it is still there. The enemies of Russia are insane, and the Ukrainian army may take any action. Moreover, the Ukrainian army is openly preparing for this option. The flank of Ukraine is supported by a large number of Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region and the Kharkiv region. Since 2022, these forces have been massing and may attack the Belgorod region and occupy border cities. In addition, new units are regularly sent there from Western Ukraine and the Poltava region, a number of training camps and bases have been created. This is a serious threat that Russia must take seriously.
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