With the progress of society and economic development, more and more employees of enterprises are aware of the importance of basic pension insurance for retirement life. According to the current basic pension insurance system, only those who have reached the statutory retirement age and have accumulated 15 years of insurance contributions can enjoy pension insurance benefits for retirement. However, with the further aging of the population and the declining birth rate of newborns, the topic of delaying the retirement age has become increasingly the focus of public discussion.
The birth rate of newborns has dropped for 6 consecutive years
From 2016 to 2023, China's newborn birth rate has declined for 6 consecutive years. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of new births in the country in 2016 was 1,88320,000; In 2017, the number of new births in the country was 1,76480,000; In 2018, the number of new births in the country was 15.23 million; In 2019, the number of new births in the country was 14.65 million; In 2020, the number of new births in the country was 1,20210,000; In 2021, the number of new births in the country was 10.62 million; In 2022, the number of new births in the country will be 9.56 million; In 2023, the number of new births in the country will be 9.02 million.
Based on the trend of declining neonatal birth rate, there are professional institutions** The birth population of newborns in China is expected to fall below 8.5 million in 2024. At the same time, in this wave of "retirement wave", more than 20 million elderly people retire every year.
The aging trend of the population is intensifying
By the end of 2023, the total population of the country's 31 provinces and municipalities will be 140967 million, a decrease of 2.08 million compared with the end of 2022. Among them, the elderly population aged 60 and above is nearly 29.7 billion, accounting for 21 percent of the country's total population1%；The elderly population aged 65 and over is nearly 21.7 billion, accounting for 15 percent of the country's total population4%。
Compared with 2022, the elderly population aged 60 and above increased by 17 million, accounting for an increase of 13%；The elderly population aged 65 and above increased by 7 million, accounting for an increase of 05%。From these two data, it is not difficult to see that the trend of China's population aging has further intensified, and it has moved from mild aging to moderate aging.
There is no doubt that the change in population structure caused by the decline in the birth rate and the intensification of aging will inevitably affect the supply of labor, and once the labor force continues to decrease, it will inevitably affect or even break the balance of basic pension insurance. In this situation, the basic pension security system will undoubtedly face greater pressure, and the call for delaying the statutory retirement age is getting louder and louder.
The general trend of "delayed retirement" has been decided!
In order to cope with the pension crisis caused by the aging of the population and the continuous decline in the birth rate of newborns, the state clearly stated in the "Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035" issued in 2021Comprehensively considering factors such as the increase in life expectancy, the acceleration of the aging trend of the population, the increase in the number of years of education, and the changes in the structure of the labor force, the statutory retirement age will be gradually extended in accordance with the principles of small-step adjustment, flexible implementation, categorical advancement, and overall consideration.
In addition, in the "Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035)" released in 2022, it is also clearly proposed to implement a gradual extension of the statutory retirement age. Based on this, we might as well be bold and bold in the next 3 5 years, or even in 2025, China's specific plan to reform the statutory retirement age will be introduced and implemented. At that time, it may affect the retirement age of the post-00s and post-00s.
At this stage, what is the legal retirement age for women?
As we all know, the statutory retirement age for male employees or flexible employees is 60 years old, that is, only male employees who have reached the age of 60 and have accumulated 15 years of insurance contributions can apply for retirement and enjoy pension insurance benefits. The Interim Measures for the Retirement and Retirement of Workers stipulate that the statutory retirement age for female employees is 50 years old, and for female cadres 55 years old. However, it is worth mentioning that the retirement age of female flexible workers who participate in the basic pension insurance for urban workers is not only 50 years old, but 55 years old. It is understood that in 2001, the Ministry of Labor and Social Security issued the "Notice on Issues Concerning the Improvement of the Basic Pension Insurance Policy for Urban Employees", which has made specific provisions on the statutory retirement age of flexible employment personnel, that is, female flexible employment participants need to be at least 55 years old and have participated in the insurance for 15 years to enjoy pension benefits.
What will be the retirement age for women after the implementation of the delayed retirement reform plan? As mentioned above, the reform of postponing the statutory retirement age will be in accordance with the principles of small step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified advancement, and overall consideration. That is to say, delayed retirement is not a "step-by-step", but to be smoothly connected with the current retirement policy, and the implementation of delayed retirement reform will distinguish different groups, adopt an appropriate rhythm, steadily advance, and gradually put it in place.
The question is, since the principle of delayed retirement should be promoted by classification, what will be the retirement age of women after the detailed plan is launched and implemented? At present, many experts and scholars generally advocate the plan of postponing each of them according to the current statutory retirement age, and then gradually reaching the uniform retirement age of men and women. In addition, the following deduction table has been made based on the method of postponing retirement for two months per year for male employees and four months per year for female flexible workers.
From the above table, it is not difficult to see that by 2055, both male and female employees, as well as female flexible employees, will retire at the age of 65, and those born in 70 years and later will be affected. However, it should be emphasized that this is only a calculation and deduction, and does not represent the reality, and the specific delay and how old it will be are still subject to the official announcement.
Conclusion
In general, the postponement of the statutory retirement age may be the general trend, especially in the further intensification of aging, the basic pension insurance is facing the pressure of income and expenditure today, the gradual postponement of the statutory retirement age of the reform measures proposed and implemented, will be the basic social pension security system to be stable and healthy operation of the inevitable choice. However, for the majority of insured workers, no matter how the policy is adjusted, and no matter how old the retirement age will be delayed, we should work hard, live well, and increase the payment base and extend the payment period as much as possible within the scope of economic conditions, so that even if you retire at the age of 65 in the future, as long as there is a sufficient pension as a guarantee, there is no need to worry about the quality of life.