Since the start of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the news of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has been difficult to search, if it is not for one or two news from time to time, I am afraid everyone will subconsciously forget that Russia and Ukraine are still fighting fiercely. Of course, this can't be blamed on the majority of netizens, mainly because the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has lasted for too long, and almost 2 years have passed in a blink of an eye, but the winner has not yet been decided, resulting in people being desensitized to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, commonly known as "indifferent".
Although there is not much attention to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict now, in fact, the war between the two sides has been going on, and from the overall situation, whether on the battlefield or outside the battlefield, Russia has gradually gained the initiative, according to this trend, Zelensky is almost a dead end, and Putin has a high probability of winning this war. In my opinion, the war will always end, and 2024 will be the "year of unwinding" for Russia.
What do you mean? Please listen to my analysis slowly. As we all know, the biggest supporters behind Ukraine are the United States, to be precise, the Democratic Party of the United States and Biden**, but due to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Democratic Party and Biden** were forced to allocate some resources to aid Israel, and even needed to mobilize military forces to escort Israel. In this case, the United States is already separated and unable to support two wars at the same time.
Therefore, you can see that since the outbreak of this round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States' assistance to Ukraine has begun to be greatly reduced, including the wording of Biden's commitment to Ukraine has also begun to change. In addition, there is another hurdle for Ukraine to get US aid, and that is the US Congress. The U.S. Congress is divided into two houses, the Senate is controlled by the Democratic Party, which is easy to solve, but the House of Representatives is not.
The House of Representatives is dominated by the Republican Party in the United States, and most Republicans, including the former Trump in the United States, are unwilling to continue to aid Ukraine, believing that continuing to support Ukraine is a waste of American resources. Therefore, both internal and external situations have made it impossible for the United States to fully support Ukraine as before, and may even terminate its aid.
Against the backdrop of the inability of the United States to provide effective assistance, Ukraine can only rely on the European Union, which may be able to fill the gap left by the United States if the European Union can further strengthen its assistance. But the question is, can the EU do it? I think it's very difficult, because if the EU wants to pass the Ukraine aid bill, it must be signed by all member states, and no one is missing, and there are more and more countries within the EU that do not agree to continue to provide assistance to Ukraine.
Based on this, what can Ukraine do in the face of the trend that neither the United States nor the European Union can effectively assist? What can we rely on to turn defeat into victory? Defeat and peace are probably a matter of high probability. However, the war can be lost, but it can't be lost now, because the United States is ** this year, and the main diplomatic achievement of the Democratic Party and Biden is the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if Ukraine loses before the end of **, isn't it a negation of Biden's political achievements in the past two years? In this way, what will the Democrats win with Biden? So you can't lose now.
Therefore, the strategy adopted by the United States and EU countries is to delay, delay the time of the defeated peace talks as much as possible, and drag it until the end of the United States**, as long as Biden can be re-elected, the next day can stop the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations, and then coerce Zelensky to end the war.
The problem is that Republicans can also do Biden's idea, and I am afraid that Putin wants Trump to return to power than Biden's re-election. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Putin will reach a private agreement with the Republican Party to give Trump a big gift on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine on the eve of the United States, in exchange for the initiative in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.