Introduction: If Putin is overthrown, will Russia and Europe turn the other cheek?
As Russia's 2024** approaches, the topic of whether Putin can be re-elected is also heating up. Some believe that Putin is still the president of Russia and that he will maintain his strength in Europe. However, some Western** say that the war between Russia and Ukraine has plunged Russia into great trouble and triggered a domestic conflict, so it is very likely that Putin will fall in a military coup. With the fall of Putin, it is very likely that Russia will return to Europe, but there will also be contradictions between China and Russia. This article intends to examine this from a different perspective.
The external and internal assessments that Putin faced when he came to power.
1. Russia's internal conflict and Putin's power struggle.
The Wagner uprising, which shook the world in June next year, reflected the continuing discontent and power struggles in Russia. The West noted that although Putin quickly suppressed the uprising, this was only the beginning. The Wagner fighters show that there are many people in Russia who are very dissatisfied with Putin, including the military and some senior military officials. In the eyes of the West, Putin's resignation is a blessing or a curse, and this needs to be thought through.
2. Putin has changed his views on Western countries.
Putin has long been considered a moderate figure in Russian politics. Although Putin has always taken a tough stance in dealing with Western countries, on many occasions he still hopes to engage in dialogue and communication with Western countries. But once Putin resigns, it is likely that he will be replaced by more radical imperialists who are resolutely hostile to the West. Putin's fight in Ukraine has brought his popularity among the population to 80 percent. And, perhaps not the most worrisome person about Russia, the new imperial Russologist is more extreme and easier to deal with.
Changes in Russian-European relations after the fall of Putin.
1. Anxiety and cooperation between China and Russia on Russian-European relations.
People fear that Putin's downfall will lead to a change in relations between Russia and Europe, and the contradictions between the two countries will further escalate. However, even if Putin leaves office, the new Russia** is unlikely to clash with China. After the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia completely disconnected itself from the West and relied on China to develop its foreign trade business. Bilateral** has been increasing and has now reached $24 billion, and there are no pressing territorial disputes. Russia does not want to confront China, and China and Russia do not want the contradictions between Russia and Europe to escalate further.
2. The current situation in Europe and Sino-Russian relations.
Russia has doubts about the connection between Europe and the United States. The current North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is seen as a means of US domination over Europe, which must continue to increase military spending and maintain close ties with the United States. European politicians tend to follow the will of the United States, and the few independent politicians are gradually decreasing. When China and Russia confronted the dependent countries of the United States, they felt both regret and indignation. China and Russia are committed to building a global landscape that counters U.S. unipolar domination. But for this to happen, Europe would have to be liberated from American domination as a separate country. If Europe wants to regain its former glory, it should wake up sooner rather than later.
Brief summary. Although there is still debate about whether Putin will resign, after Putin leaves office, the new Russian ** is likely to become a more radical imperialist. But even then, Russia will not suffer a lot because of its relations with China. There are no urgent border disputes between China and Russia, and economic and trade cooperation between the two countries is constantly developing and has a solid foundation. On the European side, if Europe cannot be liberated from the United States independently, it will be difficult to improve Russian-European relations. Europe should look at the facts and see which are its real adversaries and which are its allies.
In short, Putin's fall did not have much impact on relations between Russia and China, and long-term cooperation between China and Russia will continue. As far as Russian-European relations are concerned, Europe must first of all gain freedom from the United States and free itself from its control. In order for the relations between China, Russia, and Europe to embark on a new track, it is necessary to have a sober European consciousness and adopt corresponding measures.