When the destocking of overseas inventories is carried out, attention is paid to the valuation elasticity of the household storage sector
Installed capacity demand: CNESA recently announced that the installed capacity of energy storage in the country will be 21 in 20235gw/46.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 195% and 193%, and the domestic energy storage installed capacity is booming. At the same time, the installed capacity of large reserves in the United States in 2023 is less than expected at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the interest rate hike environment and the rapid decline in the price of upstream raw materials, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. After the current expectation of interest rate cuts and the stabilization of raw materials, the installed capacity of energy storage in the United States has high growth potential.
Export data: The number of inverter exports increased month-on-month in November, and the destocking of overseas inventories is expected to accelerate. In November, China's inverter export volume was 38030,000, a year-on-year increase of -300% MoM +223%；The export amount of the inverter is 5600 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of -468% MoM +12%, mainly due to the obvious improvement in Brazil, South Africa and other regions, and it is expected that the removal of overseas inventory will usher in an improvement in 24H1.
Destocking rhythm: Q3 began to be affected by the bulltail effect of European demand, and the inventory problem of industry channels began to appear, and the export value and number of inverters in October hit the lowest monthly data in the year. The data growth in November was affected by the low base in October; At the same time, combined with the feedback of some household storage enterprises, after nearly half a year of industry-wide destocking, the single-quarter shipments may basically bottom out. In addition, due to the impact of the Red Sea conflict, China's export freight to Europe will add an additional 7-10 days of sailing time if it bypasses the Cape of Good Hope, and the extended arrival cycle is expected to further accelerate the process of destocking in Europe.
Household savings subsidies: European household savings demand is still high, and recent policies may further catalyze household savings demand. According to the Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance, Germany's new installed capacity of battery energy storage in 23Q3 was 852MW 1305MWh, a year-on-year increase of +118% +106%, of which the household storage scale (MWh) accounted for more than 92%. As of September 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of household savings in Germany is 826GWh, the cumulative number of sets is 93870,000 sets. The UK** announced that it will remove the 20% VAT on the installation of energy storage battery systems (BESS) from 1 February 2024, which is expected to further catalyze the demand for household storage in Europe.
The logic of going overseas: the terminal demand of household savings overseas is still expanding. In the traditional European market, the fluctuations of electricity spot are more frequent and larger, and negative electricity prices are frequent, and the arbitrage model of terminal installation household storage + dynamic electricity price contract is becoming more and more acceptable, and household storage has begun to have a demand for independent installation (no photovoltaic) (pay attention to SolaX Energy); At the same time, the implementation of NEM3 in California in April this year0, the distributed photovoltaic feed-in tariff has dropped significantly, and the economy and demand of distribution and storage have increased significantly; In addition, in emerging markets where power facilities are relatively weak, the demand for household storage as a power supply guarantee is also booming.
Company valuation: The price-earnings ratio quantiles of household savings companies are at a relatively low level. According to the consensus expectation of Wind on January 10, 2024, the valuation PE of Tongrun Equipment, SolaX Energy, Deye Shares, Jinlang Technology, GoodWe Shares, Hoymiles Shares, Yuneng Technology, and Paineng Technology's 24th earnings** is 20., respectively50/18.00/10.86/14.42/10.90/19.20/23.16/10.89 times. On the whole, at present, there are still disturbances in the energy storage sector such as inventory removal and industrial chain profitability, but the pessimistic expectations have been fully reflected in the stock price, and the subsequent improvement of the disturbance is expected to catalyze the recovery of the sector with the continuous improvement of natural gas and overseas inventory, and the sector is expected to usher in a double repair of expectations and valuations. Tuesday's article mentions the subject.
From the photovoltaic storage sector after the New Year's Day devastated the market as a whole did not hit a new low and today's plate performance, the market still maintains attention to the photovoltaic sector, once the fundamentals appear marginal catalysis, there are higher odds, this year is still interesting, although today ** continues to weaken as a whole, but yesterday's prompt of the auxiliary material inverter bracket junction box target has achieved the first to bottom out and become the main force, is worth paying attention to the change of thinking signal, This year, we should use marginal thinking to dig out the expected changes to find structural opportunities, rather than continuing last year's linear extrapolation bearish and the continued pessimism of the industry's total volume, and the risk of total beta needs to be controlled by **, as well as the alpha opportunities in structural subdivisions to hedge.