[Introduction]: By the end of February, the main area of methanol in the Middle East was only 19Around 800,000 tons, coupled with the cargo delayed due to Ningbo Gambling Port and the loading plan at the beginning of the month, it is expected that the main regional unloading in the Middle East in March is estimated to be 3335-42.050,000 tons (determined by the unloading speed in Zhejiang), non-Iran is estimated at 51Around 970,000 tons, the total import unloading plan for the whole month is 8532-94.020,000 tons.
From the perspective of the arrival of non-Iranian sources**, Saudi Arabia's cargo volume has rebounded slightly, the volume of other regions fluctuates normally, and the South American cargo supply has increased significantly, which will support the arrival of non-Iranian goods in March to rise to more than 500,000 tons. From the point of view of the arrival area, due to the small amount in March, the current tense situation of the arrival plan of the social library has been basically clear, and the basis** has also been performed in advance last month (the basis of the highest offer of Taicang spot is at +230 yuan ton). Although the port olefins have been partially shut down for maintenance and load reduction, plus the domestic supplement has increased, it is still difficult to change the short-term cargo situation. In the early stage, the maximum price difference between the northwest and the port was opened to more than 700 yuan tons, which supported the mainland to stop falling, but because the logistics is difficult to increase enough (automobile transportation and shipping are so), it has not been tracked to the Inner Mongolia source of goods launched to Jiangsu and Zhejiang, so the production area fell again under the pressure of **, and the port also continued to maintain a strong basis, and the balance between regions has not yet been reached due to the circulation of goods.
Data**: Longzhong Information.
As of the deadline, the main areas of the Middle East in March include 14150,000 tons, in the context of the temporary delivery plan for Sabalan and Kimiya, the temporary assessment of the loading in March will be around 55-600,000 tons, which will rebound sharply from February. With the rise of temperature in Iran, if Sabalan and Kimiya restart smoothly, the ship plan may be more, that is, imports in April may rise to around 1.1 million tons, but if the olefin overhaul can be completed and restarted normally, and then cooperate with the spring inspection of some domestic products, the 05 contract cycle may maintain a tight supply situation.
The difficulty of inventory accumulation, as well as the industry's expectation of chemical profit recovery, support the current view that methanol remains strong**, but the impact of olefin profits on olefin production will ultimately be projected to port consumption and inventory trends are still the focus of tracking.