Statistics from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China show that in terms of exports, from January to February 2024, China exported 1,591 steel products20,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 326%；In terms of imports, from January to February 2024, China imported 113 steel products10,000 tons, down 8 percent year-on-year1% (see Figure 1 for details).
Figure 1 Monthly steel import and export trends.
Net steel exports still showed a significant year-on-year growth trend
Driven by the best advantages and relatively sufficient orders in the early stage, China's steel exports will still show a significant year-on-year growth trend from January to February 2024, while steel imports will continue to run at a low level, so they will still maintain a significant net export trend from January to February. According to the calculation data of Lange Iron and Steel Research Center, China's net steel exports from January to February 2024 will be 147810,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 349%, the growth rate fell by 10 compared with last year7 percentage points.
The global manufacturing PMI operation situation has improved, but external demand is still under pressure.
The global manufacturing PMI operation situation has improved, slightly better than the fourth quarter of last year, indicating that the global economic situation is relatively stable. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in February 2024 will be 491% (see Figure 2 for details), down 02 percentage points, stable at 49 for 2 consecutive months0% or more, higher than 47 in the fourth quarter of last yearThe average of 9% shows that the recovery of the global manufacturing industry is still relatively stable.
Figure 2 Global manufacturing PMI performance (%)
According to JPMorgan Chase data, in February 2024, JPMorgan Chase's global manufacturing PMI index was 503%, up 03 percentage points; Among them, the output index rebounded significantly in the expansion range, up 0. from the previous month9 percentage points to 512%；The new orders index rebounded to the expansion range, up 06 percentage points to 504%。In February 2024, 10 of the 20 major countries and regions in the world monitored manufacturing PMI index were above 50%, an increase of 3 from the previous month, and 14 countries and regions had a rebound from the previous month, accounting for 70%, reflecting the overall recovery trend of the global manufacturing industry.
However, judging from the data of China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index in February 2024 released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, the new export orders index of China's manufacturing industry in February was 463%, down 09 percentage points, reflecting that China's external demand is still under pressure.
The overseas steel market continued to rebound year-on-year
Global crude steel production in January 2024 showed a year-on-year decline. According to worldsteel, crude steel production in January 2024 was 148.1 billion tons, down 16%。Among them, Africa's crude steel output was 2 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 163%；Crude steel production in Asia and Oceania was 107.6 billion tons, down 36%；The crude steel output of the European Union (27 countries) was 10.2 million tons, down 18%；The crude steel output of other European countries was 3.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 225%；The crude steel output in the Middle East was 4.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 231%；North American crude steel production was 9.2 million tons, down 21%；Russia and other CIS countries + Ukraine crude steel production was 7.2 million tons, up 40%；South America's crude steel output was 3.4 million tons, down 6 percent year-on-year3%。
Figure 3 Monthly crude steel production overseas (excluding China).
From the perspective of overseas steel production, it continued to rebound year-on-year. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Research Center, in January 2024, the output of the rest of the world outside China was 70.9 million tons (see Figure 3 for details), an increase of 2.6 million tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 78%, the growth rate narrowed by 1 from the previous month0 percentage points.
China's steel export advantage still exists
At present, China's steel export advantage still exists. According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Research Center, as of March 6, 2024, the export of hot-rolled coil** (FOB) from India, Turkey and the CIS was US$615 ton, US$670 tonne and US$595 ton, respectively, and China's hot-rolled coil export** (FOB) was US$545 ton; At present, China's HRC exports are 70 US dollars per ton, 125 US dollars and 50 US dollars per ton respectively compared with India, Turkey and CIS HRC exports (see Figure 4 for details).
Fig. 4 Comparison of monthly exports** (FOB) of hot-rolled coils.
The export orders index of China's steel industry fell back to the contraction range again
From the perspective of export orders in the steel industry, due to the continuous recovery of overseas supply, the export order index of China's steel industry has been under pressure; The new export orders index of iron and steel enterprises in February 2024 surveyed by the China Federation of Iron and Steel Logistics Professional Committee is 470%, down 4 from the previous month0 percentage points, and then fell back to the contraction range (see Figure 5 for details); The new export order index of steel circulation enterprises surveyed by Lange Steel Network is 464%, although it rose 06 percentage points, but still running in contraction territory. The export order index of the steel industry is running in the contraction range, which will still restrict China's steel exports in the later period.
Figure 5 Change in new export orders in the steel industry (%)
Short-term steel exports will show a slight year-on-year and month-on-month fluctuations
From January to February 2024, China's steel exports will still show a significant year-on-year growth trend. At present, China's steel export advantage still exists; The overseas steel market continued to rebound year-on-year, the global manufacturing index improved, but foreign demand is still under pressure, and the export order index of China's steel industry has fallen back to the contraction range, which will still restrict China's steel exports in the later period. Considering that from January to February 2024, China's average monthly steel export volume is 79560,000 tons, still showing a high-level export trend, steel exports in March 2023 will be 7.89 million tons, Lange Steel Research Center expects that China's steel exports in March 2024 will show a slight fluctuation trend year-on-year and month-on-month.
In terms of imports, the current domestic manufacturing industry is operating in the contraction range, which is under pressure on the demand for steel, while China's high-end steel import substitution capacity has been significantly enhanced, and China's steel imports will remain at a low level in the later period. (Lange Iron and Steel Research Center Wang Guoqing's original article, **Be sure to indicate the source).