From the 4th to the 14th of this month, the United States and South Korea once again held a joint military exercise codenamed "Freedom Shield" on the Korean Peninsula, focusing on multi-domain operations and strike capabilities against North Korea's nuclear threat. But before the drills began, South Korean civil society groups held a rally in downtown Seoul to urge the United States and South Korea to cancel the drills and call for efforts to resume dialogue on the peninsula.
The views of South Korean civil society are worth paying attention to. In the nearly two years since Yoon Suk-yeol took office as South Korea's leader, the situation on the peninsula has continued to deteriorate. Renewed pressure on North Korea could lead to a dearly price for South Korea. Mr. Yoon may also be worried because of a rift in the alliance between the United States and South Korea. South Korea's defense minister recently publicly stated that the United States should abandon its "global leadership" if the United States is swayed by the North Korean threat and reneges on its alliance obligations with South Korea.
Liu Xiaoming, China's special representative for Korean Peninsula affairs, had a telephone conversation with the United States' senior officials on Korean affairs and exchanged views on the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Some believe that Yoon has chosen to stand on the opposite side of China in order to gain U.S. support. Now Biden** has set South Korea aside and actively sought dialogue with China on the situation on the peninsula. This made South Korea feel uneasy, fearing that it would be abandoned by the United States and reduced to a "bare-bones commander."
The rift between the United States and South Korea stems first and foremost from their lack of self-confidence. Both Biden and Yoon are aware that their North Korea policies have failed. They are afraid of the threat from North Korea. Kim Jong-un said on North Korea's Army Day that if the enemy army uses force against the DPRK, the DPRK will not hesitate to mobilize all forces against the enemy. Kim Jong-un has prepared for the worst, and in the event of a conflict, the situation could spiral out of control.
Biden's choice to talk to China at the most dangerous moment for the Korean Peninsula shows a fine-tuning of his attitude toward South Korea. Yoon Suk-yeol may be worried inside. The key to resolving the situation on the Korean Peninsula lies in the way the United States and the ROK change their policies toward the DPRK. Are they willing to change? Hardly. Because if they stop pressing, it will be tantamount to admitting their mistakes and will pay a political price. They also realize that if they stop this time, it will be more difficult to put pressure on North Korea in the future. Because the first use of military deterrence is the least difficult, once North Korea strengthens its own defense capabilities, the United States and South Korea will be in a difficult position. Since the beginning of this year, Kim Jong-un has ordered to speed up preparations for war and strengthen the building of naval combat capabilities.
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