Text: Cai Leilei
Let me start by asking you a question:What will go in price?
You may be a little confused, so let's break it downFirst of all, this thing can't be infinitely issued, its additional issuance speed should be slower than the expansion of its number of holders, right, or it just can't be additional issuance, the total amount is limited or even decreasing- If Van Gogh has a total of two paintings, each for 100 million, how can he sell for 1 billion? The answer is to burn one of them.
But as long as there are centralized things and opaque things that can be issued, they will definitely increase, because additional issuance is legal stealing money, and who will resist stealing it- Is the fiat currency printed or not? Of course printing, everyone seems to have acquiesced** can steal money, so of course it will kill you; Why are A-shares rotten? Because almost only in and out, as soon as you see the best in and out, you will hurry up with all kinds of "additional issuance", and departments at all levels use their own ways to make money with power, and once they are delisted, they will have various interests and a big game of chess; Is the house printed or not? India, sell land with a wave of your hand, rush to false GDP, what should you do if you have no land? Demolition, this is used to access the road and that is used to access the high-speed rail, this plan is planned, there is land after demolition, 1 floor becomes 30 floors, the middle is full of profits, and it can also appear that you are doing practical things.
There is only so much money, and if things can be increased in infinite amounts, then no matter how much the demand increases, it will be diluted——* It's the project party, is there a project party that doesn't steal money from the additional issuance game? Impossible. But even the house, which is a game where the people of the whole country play the credit bubble leverage and leverage, there are times when they can't play it, let alone other things with a weaker mass base?
And then the "holder" of this thing has to become more and more not short of money. It is impossible for a thing to experience tens of thousands of times an increase without **, the earliest holders must be dicks, because things are cheap - if they are very expensive at the beginning, how can they rise so many times? And Dick Silk just took 2 times, 5 times, 10 times and got off.,Then a group of people who aren't so Dick Silk took over.,If it goes up a little more, they also get off.,Who did you throw it to? It was given to a group of people who could afford to be more qualified. The cycle went on until the last group of people who couldn't afford it also rushed in with loans due to the skyrocketing effect, and the drumming game came to an abrupt end.
If it is not worthy, it will continue to shuffle in the process of price increase, either to be worthy or to zero. Bored Ape NFT once sold for millions of yuan, now it is more than 500,000, more than 1 million expensive, it is essentially a process of washing, the earliest people who bought hundreds of thousands of yuan, most of them are because of good luck on the car, their group of people is randomly selected by fate, regardless of strength, so their average quality is very poor, they must go, if they don't go, Bored Ape will not stop washing dishes-The proportion of holders who hold it because of luck accounts for a certain extent, and this investment product cannot rise to a certain extent, because these people want to throw away to improve their lives. In contrast, the quality of holders of cryptopunk NFTs is much higher, in essence, it was launched early, and it has experienced a shuffle of the quality of holders very early, so a few days ago, there were still a few cryptopunks that sold for nearly 100 million in a row.
It's the same with Bitcoin, when I entered the circle in 2013, all the so-called bigwig summits were all dicksBut after more than 10 years of washing, if you really have more than 1,000 BTC in your pocket, you must be people who are already not short of money in their own business and business - those who hoard all the coins and have no business in hand, or whose income and other assets are completely unmatched, are all fake, because this is illogical - your income is very low, and there are few other assets, how can you hoard so many coins, and they must be washed out in the middle, because you have to keep cashing out 100% for various reasons.
All good things, things that can go through cycle after cycle and keep reaching new highs, must eventually flow to people who "can not be sold", such as the super-rich, head enterprises, and ** countries- As long as most of them are not in their hands, then every time they hit a new high, they have to wash it again, and then the proportion of higher-quality holders will continue to increase, and the number of dicks left for buying and selling will continue to decrease. If it can't do this, then it won't be good enough, it won't be able to withstand the cycle, and it will run to zero - investment products also have a big wave of sand, which is very cruel.
Investment products, which really circulate in the market, usually account for a very small proportion, that is, a total of 10,000 pieces of collection, there may be 1%, just 100 pieces, which have been traded countless times, and the other 99% are hoarded in the hands of people who are not short of money - when the number of this "100 pieces" gradually decreases, the price of this investment product will rise, and it seems that the market value of the entire 10,000 pieces has increased, but in fact, it is just a little less circulation. So what's the situation with the washing? It's that a larger proportion has been changing hands, as for whether it can be changed to more wealthy people? It depends on the quality of your investment product itself, and whether you are strong enough.
Do people with 10 million buy you, or do they have 100 million people buy you, or do they have 1 billion people buy you? It's completely different. Why does Hermès platinum bags hold their value? That's why, the more it discriminates, the more it needs to be distributed, what costs millions to buy kennels to buy leashes to buy mahjong in order to buy some of its bags, the more these bags are worth buying,Because the more money can be wasted, the higher the quality of the holders, and the more the price will not fall. On the contrary, in the past two years, some cities have even played the slogan of 0 down payment for college students, and you know that you want to sell the house in that placeBecause you can even see the holders who are not qualified to hold it, can the selling pressure not be great?
Why does even the aunt on the street rush in to buy xx, which is the time for xx to leave? Even if the ** of xx was still rising wildly at that time. You must know that the **crazy rise is because most of the people who are not qualified to hold but insist on holding come in, although each of them has a small capital, but as soon as the credit is enlarged, the number of people is large, ** will naturally go crazy. But you also have to know that they are actually not worthy of holding, the cost of using the funds of these people is very high, they can't bear the cycle, they can't carry the **, and they are also people who will be thrown as soon as they rise, so the part they hold is very unstable. The ** of investment products is often determined by its "floor price", that is, the 1% of people who can't bear loneliness the most, who determine the ** of all 100% of investment products, as long as the quality of those 1% of people deteriorates to a certain extent, whether it is still rising wildly, it will fall immediately.
So, will you choose? ENDS).
I'm Cai Leilei, thank you for reading.