The logic of this question is: Li Jiancheng is incompetent, but he has the identity of the eldest son, while Li Shimin is just the opposite, which formed a conflict, which in turn led to the outbreak of the Xuanwumen Change.
Is this really the case? My personal answer is no, if the identities of the two are reversed, it is still impossible to avoid fratricide, but the result is difficult to predict.
We split this question into three, it will be easier to answer this question, first, who has the stronger comprehensive ability between Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng? Second, why is there a brotherly dispute? Third, what is the most important force that dominates the brotherly dispute?
It is generally believed that Li Jiancheng's political ability is on a par with Li Shimin's, and his military talent is not at all an order of magnitude compared with Li Shimin's, but I want to pour cold water on people with this view: Li Jiancheng is above Li Shimin in both aspects.
It is estimated that someone will come up with "ironclad evidence" to spray me: How many people in the history of the "Zhenguan Rule" created by Li Shimin can reach such a height? Can you guarantee that Li Jiancheng will be able to do it?
I can't make history repeat itself, but I can tell you by analogy that the "rule of Zhenguan" is indeed great, but it is not unusual at all, if you change people and let him be in Li Shimin's historical environment, as long as he does not make big mistakes, he can do it.
I don't know if you have noticed a phenomenon, all the great unified dynasties will have a historical period of great governance, the "rule of Wenjing" in the Western Han Dynasty, the "rule of Mingzhang" in the Eastern Han Dynasty, the "rule of Kaihuang" in the Sui Dynasty, the "rule of Renzong" in the Song Dynasty, the "rule of Renxuan" in the Ming Dynasty, the "Kangxi Prosperous Era" in the Qing Dynasty, and so on.
The timing of these reigns will vary depending on their particularity, but most of them occurred between 20 and 50 years. Why are there these historical coincidences? This is actually the result of the driving force of Chinese culture.
After the war, as long as the "non-action" policy of recuperation and recuperation is adopted, as long as the people can live a worry-free life in just three years, and give it another one or two decades of free development, it can create a prosperous society.
Therefore, after the founding of the dynasty, a wise ruler can become a Ming monarch only by virtue of the trick of "ruling by doing nothing", and if he can introduce some more good governance, the speed of recovery will be faster, which is the main reason why it is easy to produce a Ming monarch at the beginning of the founding of the country.
In fact, the real great rule of the Tang Dynasty was not "Zhenguan", but the period of Gaozong Li Zhi and Xuanzong Li Longji.
Due to the erasure of Li Jiancheng in the history books, we can't see too many details about him, but even so, we can still see Li Jiancheng's political talent.
First of all, he has the ability to gain the support of the Shi clan. This was very important in the environment where the noble class was in power, and Emperor Yang of Sui was defeated on this issue. Li Jiancheng's basic plan to compete with Li Shimin was the Guanlong Shi group, and later won the support of the Hebei group.
His only shortcoming is in Henan, where Li Shimin has been fighting for a long time, and has become Li Shimin's iron plate.
Secondly, Li Jiancheng has a very strong ability to handle government affairs, and he has assisted Li Yuan for a long time without any mistakes. What's even more difficult is that Li Jiancheng has been suspicious of Li Yuan except for the Yang Wengan incident, and the relationship between father and son is very harmonious, which shows that Li Jiancheng has quite outstanding balance ability.
At that time, Li Shimin was a pure military general and did not have the level of civil governance. I don't mean to belittle him by saying this, the history books record that Li Shimin has not been good at reading since he was a child and likes to mix in society, so he was taken by Li Yuan, probably afraid that something would happen to him.
Li Shimin began to study after pacifying the world, especially after becoming the emperor, so it seems that he is still very talented in reading, so Li Shimin's government affairs ability actually began to accumulate slowly from that time.
Talking about military talent, later generations exaggerated Li Shimin, but ignored Li Jiancheng.
I have studied Li Shimin's military career, and I will only draw conclusions based on space: First, Li Shimin was not a natural military strategist, but was trained step by step, and he also experienced failure. Second, Li Shimin can be regarded as a second-rate military strategist, and he is by no means a god of war, and compared with the world's famous general Li Jing, he is not at the same level at all. To say that the Tang Dynasty was brought down by Li Shimin is even more blind advocacy.
Li Jiancheng's military talent is actually seriously underestimated, let me give you a few examples:
The commander of the first battle of Taiyuan's army, "Capturing Xihe County", was Li Jiancheng, and Li Shimin gave his eldest brother a hand. It was a perfect battle, and in just nine days, he not only won the war, but also won the hearts and minds of the people with his serious military discipline.
After Li Shimin pacified Liu Heimin's rebellion, due to improper policies, a second rebellion was triggered, and Li Yuan used Li Jiancheng, who rarely went to the battlefield, during the second expedition to Liu Heimin. Li Jiancheng won this battle much easier than Li Shimin, and it was a complete victory, and at the same time won the support of the Hebei Shi Group.
If Li Jiancheng is given full marks in the Battle of Hebei, Li Shimin will have a maximum of 70 points.
Li Jiancheng's shortcoming is that he has no chance to go to the battlefield, and he lacks the support of his exploits compared with Li Shimin. But he can't be blamed, because this is Li Yuan's careful arrangement.
Fathers and sons, this sentence is vividly reflected in Li Yuan. Since the beginning of the Taiyuan army, all the power has been in the hands of Li Yuan, Li Jiancheng, Li Shimin, Li Yuanji and his son. Li Yuan's wishful thinking was to sit in charge and cultivate Li Jiancheng's ability to govern, and militarily rely on Li Shimin and Li Yuanji.
It's not that Li Yuan is selfish, but forced by the historical environment, because it was an era when the gate lord clan was rampant, and he knew that the power could not be handed over to others, otherwise even if he got the support of the wealthy group and won the country, he would be bombarded by them sooner or later.
Li Yuan was already in his fifties when he raised his army, and he definitely couldn't fight for a long time, so his main focus was on balancing the gate valve group and cultivating Li Jiancheng. Li Shimin also made great progress according to his expectations, but Li Yuanji was a little uncompetitive and could never be on his own, and later he had to use his nephew Li Xiaogong to sit in Jiangnan.
Li Yuanji's chain drop made Li Shimin a unique group, thus forming a military merit group with Li Shimin as the core. Trouble ensued, and the military merit group would definitely promote Li Shimin's ambition to compete for the crown for the sake of personal interests.
If Li Yuanji is strong enough, Li Shimin and Li Yuanji are tied for two, and Li Jiancheng is left and right, and the military merit group is easy to be divided. Li Yuan is distressed, who let Xiao Si not be angry?
Li Yuan also tried to change this situation, starting from the seventh year of Wude, Li Jiancheng, Li Shimin, and Li Yuanji often went out to fight the Turks at the same time, and Li Shimin's performance during that time was actually not outstanding. It seems that the situation has reversed.
In the ninth year of Wude, that is, before the outbreak of the Xuanwumen Rebellion, Li Yuan simply let Li Yuanji lead the troops alone, and shelved Li Shimin. Obviously, this is a red flag.
According to the history books, Li Shimin was worried that the old would be recruited by Li Yuanji and killed, and the situation was very critical, so he hurriedly launched the Xuanwumen Rebellion.
I think there should be another explanation: if Li Yuanji wins, he can slowly replace Li Shimin's position. Soldiers need to be rewarded for meritorious service, this check has since been transferred to Li Yuanji's hands, why are people still following you Li Shimin? Not surprisingly, a large number of military merit groups will disperse from Li Shimin's side.
Will Li Jiancheng and Li Yuanji care about Wei Chigong and Cheng Biting Jin, Li Shimin's sworn friends? cares, but they are too insignificant compared to the entire military merit group.
This is the reason why Wei Chigong and others are in a hurry, the situation has changed, if we are still loyal to you, either we have no future, or we will die, for our sake you have to go up, and you have to go up, otherwise Lao Tzu will also change jobs!
This involves the third question, this brotherly dispute is far from being under the control of Li Jiancheng and Li Shimin personally, and there is a powerful force behind it.
There are always people who say that there is no shortage of glory and wealth in the military merit group, so why do they have to fight for power and profit and seek death? Isn't it fragrant to play fairies with wine?
Do you think it's just human greed? No, it's actually about the long-term interests of a huge group, and everyone in it is caught up in it, and there is no way out.
Notice one of the basic social formations of ancient China, which was the blood clan society, where the family was the root of everyone. The ancients were good at asking "origin", what is birth? Birth is the family lineage, which represents the social status of a person.
In fact, this is what the military merit group is fighting for, they can not care about their official position and power, but they must find a bright road for the future of the family, only in this way can they be immortalized in the family tree after a hundred years.
The Sui and Tang dynasties are the world of the wealthy clan group, the wealthy family is not the same, but there are not many opportunities to change, and the change of dynasty is the biggest opportunity, who doesn't want to climb the dragon and the phoenix and change their background in one fell swoop?
Li Jiancheng's basic plate was the Guanlongmen Valve Group, a family group that had controlled all the political resources of the empire since the Western Wei Dynasty. Li Shimin is different, his basic plate is in the Kanto region, since the Northern Qi Dynasty was destroyed, they have become non-mainstream, and some families have even degenerated into the Shu clan.
Therefore, they want to support Li Shimin to the throne regardless of everything, this is a big gamble, a big gamble on the family's century-old fortune.
You may say, whether the family can prosper depends on whether the children and grandchildren are the material? It's really not what you think, at that time, the family was not "folk recognition", but "official certification", and what treatment future generations can enjoy depends entirely on the certification of the family origin.
This is the reason why Li Shimin later compiled the "Surname Record" and Li Zhi compiled the "Clan Chronicles", which caused an uproar. The status of the family is determined by which school the children attend, who they can marry in the future, how much meal tickets they can get for free, and even what kind of house they live in and what level of clothes they wear.
If you had the chance, would you be willing to gamble for future generations?
So the conclusion is that the dispute between Li Shimin and Li Jiancheng has nothing to do with ability, seniority and youngness, and there will be conflicts if their identities are reversed. As for the result, it is a bit complicated, depending on the will of the parties, the growth and decline of the forces behind it, and the impact of accidental events.
But the law of history will not change because Li Shimin is the emperor or Li Jiancheng is the emperor, that's all.