So, the question is, why are expectations of lower interest rates so consistent? The main reason is that the risk appetite of the whole society is highly conservative. Why do investors like high dividends? Why do people like fixed deposits? Why do companies choose idling arbitrage to support their savings? Why do young people take the public examination? Why are there fewer and fewer people in the system to take action? Why are more and more people lying flat? These problems are actually similar to the logic of the 30-year Treasury bond purchase. That is, the risk appetite of the whole society has fallen systematically. When the premium of hard work tends to die, wouldn't it be good to take an interest-bearing asset that can protect the principal until retirement? In addition, the asset shortage is becoming more and more severe. In the past, the main carrier of creating high-yield + rigid assets, a real estate and an urban investment. The myth of the former's housing price ** has been broken, not only can not provide high returns, but also the hardest hit area of risk exposure. The latter's expectation of non-default has been fully priced in by the market, and non-standard is also the hardest hit area of risk thunderstorms. Come to think of it, isn't there only 30 years left? /
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