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Is the expansion of domestic demand mainly dependent on consumption or investment? This is an issue that has been discussed a lot by all sectors of society in 2023.
Domestic demand has always been the main driving force for China's economic development, and demand has contributed more than 90% to economic growth in recent years. At a briefing held by the Information Office on March 5, Huang Shouhong, head of the drafting group of the "Work Report" and director of the Research Office, pointed out.
Expanding domestic demand has always been the focus of the work report in recent years. The difference is that "reviving and expanding consumption" was previously given absolute priority, but this year, "expanding effective investment" has been given equal priority. **The work report pointed out that "better coordinate consumption and investment, and enhance the role of economic growth".
This is the emergence of several sets of key figures - it is proposed to arrange local special bonds 39 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan over the previous year; It will issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be used for the implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas, and 1 trillion yuan will be issued this year; This year's budget investment plans to arrange 700 billion yuan.
Judging from last year's economic performance, investment was weak, and investment in fixed assets grew by 3 percent throughout the year, which was a lag. Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences, analyzed to Uncle Cheng that the expected economic growth target of 5% this year, if the investment is only 3%, it is obviously not enough, and it needs to be increased to more than 4%.
The question is, how does this 1 percentage point gap pull?
Who will lead economic growth in investment and consumption", which has undergone several shifts over the past decade.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2013, the contribution rate of consumption and investment to GDP was about 50%, and investment had a slight advantage, and then the contribution of consumption fluctuated and increased, reaching the first peak of 69% in 2015, and the investment contribution rate was only 22 in the same period6%。
In 2020, affected by the epidemic and other factors, the consumption contribution rate fell to -68%, while the investment contribution rate was as high as 815%。And in the first year after the end of the epidemic, the contribution rates of consumption and investment in 2023 will be respectively. 9%。
From this perspective, investment seems to have become a shortcoming that restricts economic growth. From 2013 to 2023, consumption drove GDP growth by an average of 358 percentage points, while investment drove GDP growth by 235 percentage points, starting to gradually stabilize at the level of 1% 2%. In the decade before that, China's economy was still in a period of strong investment, with investment and consumption driving GDP growth by 5 per year respectively6 pcs and 52 percentage points.
Therefore, in the past, there was a view in the academic circles that "investment-led economic growth is unsustainable", and when the economy develops to a certain stage, the contribution rate of investment to economic growth will decline significantly, and it will show a long-term decreasing trend. Since then, there have also been views emphasizing that consumption-led economic growth is sustainable.
In this regard, Lin Yifu, member of the Standing Committee of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, deputy director of the Economic Committee, and dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University, said that in the economic downturn, the role of consumption in driving economic growth is relatively limited. In order for consumption to become the main driving force for economic growth, the premise is that the income level of residents should continue to rise, and the premise of the continuous growth of income level is continuous technological innovation and industrial upgrading, which are inseparable from investment.
Lin Yifu believes that it is necessary to let investment effectively stimulate economic growth and invest funds in technological innovation and industrial upgrading, so as to improve the level of productivity. When productivity levels and incomes increase, household consumption will naturally grow rapidly.
Since the end of last year, promoting a virtuous cycle of investment and consumption has become an important trend. The first economic work conference held in December last year pointed out that it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption and expand effective investment, and for the first time mentioned "forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other".
In this year's work report, it was once again emphasized: "Focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting the economy to achieve a virtuous circle." It is necessary to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with the deepening of supply-side structural reforms, better coordinate consumption and investment, and enhance the stimulating role of economic growth. ”
**Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center, pointed out that a contradiction faced by the current investment growth is that the lack of market demand leads to the lack of investment confidence of enterprises, "there may be fewer orders in hand, and the prospects for future orders are not good".
In this case, "it is necessary to give full play to the driving and amplifying effect of ** investment, because the purpose of ** investment and market investment is different." Market investment considers the economic rate of return, and the public welfare characteristics of investment are more prominent, and it is also an indispensable public good. Zhang Liqun said.
Judging from the relevant arrangements of this year's work report, the driving and amplifying effect of investment is significantly enhanced with the support of a series of policies. In this year's work report, "actively expanding effective investment" was placed in an important position. It is clearly stated that ——
It is necessary to give full play to the amplification effect of investment, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation, new infrastructure, energy conservation, emission reduction and carbon reduction, strengthen people's livelihood and other weak economic and social areas to make up for shortcomings, promote flood control, drainage and disaster relief infrastructure construction, promote the renewal and technological transformation of various production equipment and service equipment, and accelerate the implementation of major projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan".
This year's budget investment plans to arrange 700 billion yuan. At the same time, starting this year, it is planned to issue ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years, which will be specially used for the implementation of major national strategies and the building of security capacity in key areas, and will be issued as a trillion yuan this year.
At the briefing held by the press office today, Huang Shouhong said that in terms of strength, this year's budget investment and local special bonds have increased compared with last year.
* Investment plays a guiding role, to produce a multiplier effect, radiation effect. Xu Hongcai believes that the radiation effect is embodied in how much private investment can be driven, how much employment can be increased and other actual benefits, but also to play a certain role in promoting the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, "to be low-carbon and green, with high scientific and technological content."
With regard to the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds for several consecutive years starting this year, he believes that this is a professional and technical arrangement, and that in the past, there were too many short- and medium-term bonds, but now the maturity has been extended, which is actually to optimize the debt structure and ease the pressure of debt repayment in the current period.
In addition to which professional fields to invest in, which regions to invest in are also concerned. According to the ** work report, it will "reasonably expand the scope of local ** special bonds to be invested in and used as capital, and the quota allocation will be tilted towards areas with sufficient project preparation and high investment efficiency." ”
Zeng Gang, dean of the Urban Development Research Institute of East China Normal University, speculated that China will concentrate on the use of three types of funds: 1 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds, 700 billion yuan of budget funds, and local investment principal. Among them, first-tier cities, central cities, developed provinces and cities will receive more financial support and development opportunities.
This is not an equal distribution, but a focused arrangement of the financial funds that are currently raised, so as to make effective investment as quick as possible and grow better. In Zhang Liqun's view, for these considerations, the funds will be invested in areas with faster and better results, and more mature projects will be supported to start construction as soon as possible, which will quickly form the workload of project construction, drive the increase of enterprise orders as soon as possible, and improve the sense of acquisition of public goods construction faster.
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Recently, many provinces have clarified the expected growth targets for fixed asset investment in 2024, specifically, Hainan, Liaoning, and Shanxi have target growth rates of about 10%, Henan, Anhui, and Heilongjiang target growth rates of about 7%, Hebei, Zhejiang, and Gansu target growth rates of about 6%, and Guangdong, Chongqing, and Jilin target growth rates of less than 5%.
Compared with the higher fixed asset investment growth target generally set by the local government in 2023, the target for most provinces in 2024 has been lowered. For example, Guangdong, at the beginning of last year, proposed that the growth rate of fixed asset investment should be more than 8%; Henan's target for last year was also as high as 10 percent.
Although most provinces have lowered their expectations, investment is still one of the main tasks of local governments this year. From the perspective of direction, all localities have invariably focused their investment efforts on future industries and a new generation of information technology, and accelerated the deployment of new quality productive forces.
The work report of Zhejiang Province proposes that in 2024, more than 1,000 major projects of "thousands of trillions" will be arranged around key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, and major infrastructure, and an annual investment of more than 1 trillion yuan will be completed.
According to the list of major projects in 2024 released by Shanghai, among the 191 formal projects planned and arranged, 76 are in the science and technology industry. In the list of major provincial projects issued and implemented by Jiangsu in 2024, there are 186 strategic emerging industries and future industry projects, an increase of 25 over the previous year7%, accounting for 80% of manufacturing projects.
Since the beginning of last year, with the needs of industrial transformation and upgrading and the pursuit of high-quality development, the signal of the Communist Party of China's focus on supporting strategic emerging industries and future industrial development is very obvious. In Zeng Gang's view, the fourth industrial revolution with digital network technology as the core has had a profound impact on the global economy. As a response and choice, seizing the opportunity and changing lanes to overtake is the proper meaning of development.
National Business Daily.