Reference News Network on February 29** Australian East Asia Forum ** published an article on February 26, entitled "Trump, the World ** Organization and Defending the Global**" The full text is excerpted as follows:
If re-elected, Donald Trump's plan to impose tariffs of 10 percent on all U.S. imports and 60 percent on Chinese products could trigger a global contagion of retaliatory measures. In November, no matter who is elected, the United States will continue to disrupt the world organization and undermine the international system. Global collective action is needed to uphold the rules-based system; The 13th Ministerial Conference of the World Organization, which is being held in Abu Dhabi, provides an opportunity to do so.
Protectionism is back.
Trump promised that if re-elected**, he would impose a 10% tariff (import tax) on all products entering the United States and a 60% tariff on Chinese products. This is not a special shock to the kind of tariff system that exacerbated and prolonged the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which exacerbated and prolonged the Great Depression of the 20th-30s, but it is very close. The depression of the '30s was exacerbated by retaliatory measures from much of the rest of the world: higher tariffs, global restrictions.
After the Second World War, in order to avoid repeating the protectionism of aggravating competition and conflict and beggar-thy-neighbor on the eve of the war, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Tariffs, which later became the world's largest organization, was established.
So far, the system has avoided the so-called "prisoner's dilemma" outcome: countries acting in narrow selfish interests, with a worse outcome for them together. However, this system is under threat, and international ** rules are seriously outdated.
Basic international economics tells us that-for-tat retaliation exacerbates the harm of predatory measures, but it is the nationalist instinct not to reward the appearance of weakness that drives action.
Domestic problems are deeply entrenched.
Trump may be making good on what he now promises about the front. In his first term as a leader, in addition to withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership on his first day in office, it took some time to launch a war and sabotage international organizations. If Trump is re-elected, those who held the White House and cabinet during Trump's first presidency and restrained the destruction will not be in office next year.
We can be sure that on his first day in office, Trump will shake the foundations of the international system.
Trump is both a symptom and a cause of America's withdrawal from global** leadership. In 2019, when the United States rejected the appointment of judges to the Appellate Body with a single vote, making the global rules unenforceable, Biden did nothing to reverse the castration of the dispute settlement mechanism of the World Organization. Biden's ** representative Tai Qi overturned the ruling of the world ** organization that Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum products on the grounds of ***. At the end of last year, Tai Qi announced that the United States would withdraw from important provisions of the world** organization's e-commerce agreement and negotiations on multilateral rules for the digital economy, including those contained in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
The problems that have plagued the U.S. domestic economy for a long time are deep-rooted and structural. Despite the country's growing affluence, the majority of the population is not reaping the benefits of decades of globalization and innovation. Trump will exacerbate the consequences of this discomfort of the United States with the international system. However, no matter who is elected to the United States in November this year, the United States will continue to play the role of a spoiler in the world** organization for the foreseeable future. Trump will be more impudent and more extreme, but the direction of the United States is locked.
Collectively defend the rules.
The question is how the global community will respond to the rudeness of the United States in the field of **.
Defending a rules-based system requires collective action. It is in the collective strategic interest of the rest of the world to isolate, rather than emulate, the protectionism of the United States.
World organizations may be in a difficult position, but without a multilateral frame of reference, many bilateral and regional liberal agreements will not be able to protect global openness. The alternative to the rule of law in international business will be the rule of power and a retreat to a closed market to prevent domination.
The rules need to be updated. This week, when the Minister is in Abu Dhabi for the 13th Ministerial Conference, there is an opportunity to make some progress. But, as Ken Hayden pointed out in his headline article this week, following the rare success of the 12th Ministerial Conference in 2022, the expectations for the 13th Ministerial Conference are "relatively not too high".
We can expect progress on "an agreement that provides transparency and accessibility in e-commerce", as well as an agreement that promotes investment development.
E-commerce transparency and accessibility progress is welcome. The digital economy is growing at 25 times faster than the real economy, and physical products and services** now rely on data optimization and innovation generated by digital flows. In addition, we need to consider the factor of artificial intelligence, which is accelerating the rapid development of the digital economy.
The 13th Ministerial Conference will not solve the world's problems, but it will provide much-needed momentum. The momentum of multilateral** cooperation contributes to the necessary domestic opposition to deep-seated protectionist sentiments;Hayden reminds us that this strategy has worked in the past and must not be missed now.
Despite the setbacks, the core of the global economy's gravity continues to move toward Asia. Joining the rules-based system and becoming an exemplary system recipient, Asia became rich. It's time for Asia to accelerate its emergence as a system maker.
Supporting this ** system at the 13th Ministerial Conference is just the beginning of the fight for Trump20 ready. (Compiled by Cheng Guoyi).