On March 4, it was reported by **Goldman Sachs Group Inc. removed Apple from its "Best of the Best list" due to the company's poor performance and concerns about weak demand for its main products. Goldman Sachs said its "best list" would be reviewed monthly and removed if it was "no longer the best investment choice."
According to agency analysis, Apple's fundamentals are expected to be under pressure in 2024, and it remains to be seen when the subsequent performance inflection point will appear.
Agency: Apple's future performance growth is weak
Dongcai Choice data shows that since June 2023, Apple's stock price has only **176%。Especially since December 2023, Apple's stock price has been **9%.
*: Oriental Fortune.
Apple's business is mainly based on consumer electronics products such as mobile phones, tablets, and computers, as well as supporting software ecosystem services. Apple's important product, the iPhone, increased shipments slightly. According to data from the market research institute IDC, in 2023, Apple's iPhone shipments will be 23.5 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 37%。
According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter of 2023, Apple's iPhone business revenue was $69.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%. But the agency believes that iPhone sales are not ideal. According to the Everbright Research Report, the revenue of the "fist product" iPhone is mainly driven by the increase in the average selling price of the iPhone 15 series, and the sales volume itself is not optimistic, and the competition of the iPhone in the high-end mobile phone market has intensified.
From the perspective of the Chinese market, in the fourth quarter of 2023, Apple's revenue in Greater China was 208200 million US dollars, down 129%。IDC data shows that although Apple's iPhone shipments ranked first in the Chinese market, under the impact of competing products, shipments fell by 2% year-on-year1%。
In addition, the financial report showed that revenues related to businesses such as iPad and Mac computers were under pressure. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Apple's Mac business revenue was 77800 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 06%。The iPad business remained weak with revenue of 70200 million US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 253%；Wearables, Home & Accessories revenue was 119500 million US dollars, down 113%。
According to Everbright's research report, the consumer electronics industry is expected to show a weak recovery in 2024, and Apple's performance growth will still be weak in the future.
But analyst Michael Ng maintained Apple's ** rating, arguing that "the market's focus on slowing product revenue growth masks the strength of Apple's ecosystem and the durability and visibility of associated revenues," the report said.
Apple has suffered a series of negative news
It is worth noting that recently, Apple has encountered a series of negative news. On February 28, Apple was revealed that the company had decided to cancel the electric vehicle project that had been done for more than ten years. The decision came as a surprise to the nearly 2,000 employees involved in the project. It is understood that many of the employees in the team responsible for the car will be transferred to the artificial intelligence department, and these employees will focus on generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) projects, which is an increasingly critical priority for the company.
In terms of wearable products, Apple released the spatial computing device Vision Pro in June 2023, and the product will be officially launched in 2024. On February 16, it was the expiration date of the trial period of Apple's first headset device, Vision Pro, but it was revealed that the first batch of Vision Pro users returned a large number of returns.
As early as January, a review showed that Vision Pro still has a lot of problems to solve. The Vision Pro's counterweight problem has not been effectively improved, with reviewers reporting significant discomfort after 20 minutes of wearing the standard straps. According to TrendForce, the main challenges faced by Vision Pro are insufficient battery life, insufficient application, and poor performance.
Significant investment is being made in generative AI
Everbright believes that Apple's strong product strength and diversified ecosystem will remain an important competitive barrier for the company, with short-term performance under pressure and long-term competitiveness still existing. We can pay close attention to the shipment prospects of the next-generation Vision Pro and the combination trend of Vision Pro with multi-modal large models, which is expected to build Apple's next growth curve.
Apple is investing heavily in generative AI. On February 28, local time, Apple held its annual shareholders' meeting, and Apple CEO Tim Cook said that Apple has "invested a lot of money" in artificial intelligence.
Cook said the company believes generative AI has incredible breakthrough potential, which is why Apple is making significant investments in this area. Apple believes it will bring transformative opportunities for users to be more productive, solve problems, and more.
Editor: Yu Hongbo.
Proofreader: Zhang Lijing.
Producer: Zhang Nan.
Issued by: Peng Yong.