Aimeike's listing is highly sought after by the market because of its medical aesthetic attributes, and it continues to skyrocket, and hit a high of 837 yuan in July 21, an increase of more than 4 times compared to the listed issue price of 164 yuan. After that, it entered the slow ** channel, which is still today. In 2020, we talked about the medical beauty industry, and we mentioned Aimeike at that time, and said that its valuation is high, and it is recommended that you collect and pay attention to it first, so what is the valuation of Aimeike now? Is it OK to invest?
To see the valuation, we must first understand the basic financial situation of Aimeike. First, let's take a look at Aimeike's main financial indicators. It can be seenAimeike's indicators are very good
Rapid growth. Revenue from 07.5 billion grew to 19 in 20223.9 billion. Increase.
Nearly 25 times, with an annualized growth rate of up to a terrifying 50%. Net profit from 02.7 billion grew to 119.7 billion, an even higher increase, 43 times, an annualized rate of 60%.
High profits, high returns. The gross profit margin is high and stable, basically remaining at about 90%, which shows the strong competitiveness of Aimeike. The net profit margin continued to increase, the gross profit remained unchanged, and the net profit increased, indicating that the expenses continued to decline during the period and the company's operating capacity continued to improve. ROIC has dropped to 16 due to its listing in 202088%, which has continued to rise in the past two years, returning to 23 in 202214%, 5-year average 20%+, obvious benefits.
Low debt. In 2020, the pre-IPO debt did not exceed 20%, and it was as low as 5% after the listing.
Cash self-sufficiency,Every year, the cash flow generated from operating activities can cover the investment.
endogenous growth plus extension of M&A development; The company's endogenous growth is mainly reflected in R&D investment, which has increased year by year, from 01.3 billion grew to 1. in 20227.3 billion. Epitaxial mergers and acquisitions are mainly to acquire collagen companies and lay out the collagen track. June 2022 Flower 2300 million yuan joint venture subsidiary, Yuan Meimei (accounting for 57.).5% shares), September 2022 original beauty flower 3500 million 100% acquisition of Harbin Peiqilong Biopharmaceutical*** to lay out the collagen track and expand the company's product line.
The reinvestment rate IR is decreasing; It can be seen from the figure that the company's reinvestment rate has decreased significantly since 2017, mainly because the company's flagship product Hi Ti has increased significantly faster than the growth rate of R&D investment after the launch of the company's flagship product. The average reinvestment rate over the past 5 years is 336%。
Stable dividends; In 2020, it will be listed and raised 35After 7.2 billion, the annual dividend is stable, with a total dividend of 18 in 3 years800 million. It is estimated that in another three years, dividends will cover the financing at the time of listing. Of course, the premise is that the performance should be maintained, and the integrity of the operation will not increase the issuance of financing. For newly listed enterprises, integrity management will be a key factor for us to investigate.
Strong free cash flow. Since 2014, we have had positive free cash flow almost every year; Especially after the listing of Hi Sports in 2017, the company's free cash flow increased rapidly; By 2022, a total of 3 billion free cash flow will be achieved, with a 6-year average free cash flow of 600 million.
There is always a lot of uncertainty about the future, and the future is difficult, but we still try to use the company's future development from the company's investment today. As we already know, the reinvestment rate of companies is not high, with an average of about 33% in the past five years. That is, the IR is 33%, combined with the average ROIC of about 20% in the past 5 years, it can be seen that the growth brought by reinvestment is only 6.6%(g=ir*roic=33%*20%=6.6%)。It can be seen that the rapid growth of Aimeike in recent years is mainly due to the improvement of the efficiency of existing assets.
Combined with the actual situation, after the launch of Aimeike's popular product Hi Body in 2017, it achieved rapid volume and helped the company achieve rapid growth, with an annualized growth rate of up to 40% from 2017 to 2022. However, long-term high growth is obviously unrealistic, so,Expected in the futureThe decline in the growth rate of Aimeike will be a high probability event.
Since the future growth rate is likely to decline, we assume that the annualized growth rate of enterprises will drop to 25% in 2023-2025 and 15% in 2026-2030 based on the 40% high-speed growth rate in previous years, and then enter a low-speed stable growth period of 4%.
Combined with the fact that Aimeike is in the early stage of development, there is still a lot of uncertainty and risk, so we give a higher discount rate of 12% to offset the risk.
Based on the average free cash flow of 600 million in the past five years, the discounted value of the company's future free cash flow is estimated.
About 19 billion, plus nearly 4 billion in cash, a total of 23 billion, that is, the intrinsic value of 23 billion, about 106 yuan per share, corresponding to the current stock price of 300+ yuan. It can be seen that although the stock price has fallen sharply, the valuation of Aimeike is still very high.
Of course, Aimeike's later products will also be listed one after another, including botulinum toxin and other popular products, if the product is successful, it may bring the second growth curve, so that Aimeike continues to maintain rapid growth, here is just an estimate based on the current situation, and it is necessary to continue to track the development of the enterprise, and then make valuation adjustments.
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Risk Warning: The article is only for my own study of investment notes, for reference only, and does not make investment recommendations; Buy and sell accordingly at your own risk.