Teacher Xiang Shuai live broadcast for more than 3 hours,The output of views is too much and too scattered,Limited ability to summarize and only grasp the following key records,If necessary, I will go to see mp4 and learn by myself
1.The teacher has 3 000 points, can he get 4 000 points? The down payment on my mortgage is still in A.
A: I don't know if 4, 000 points will get and I'm not going to do this**, but if I were going to make a down payment on a house I'd pull it out and wouldn't gamble on it.
2.In 2023, the whole ** conditions are deteriorating, and they will begin to deteriorate after April 2023, and the rate of deterioration is still relatively fast.
Looking at real estate, corporate investment and personal consumption are closely related to real estate. This line has not improved much so far, and the real estate market forecast from 2023 to 2024 is that real estate will not pick up until at least January in 2024. Why can't you get up? The most important thing is funding**. And now that our capital has not come down, it will be difficult for you to invest in real estate, because the industrial chain of real estate is very long, and it is difficult for you to expect this total demand to come up soon.
So what does it take for aggregate demand to come up? Now all the suspense is in ** spending, only when the interest rate level comes down, it is possible for companies to invest, right? So why can't the investment come up? Because they don't consume, it's because their income is low. Why is the income low? It's because there is no investment and no project. Why is there no project? Because investing in projects doesn't make money. Why doesn't investing in projects make money? Because interest rates are too high.
This year's two sessions, if the general public budget can reach 38. That will be a very active fiscal policy, and the economy may really be stimulated. (We used to be about 3%).
3.The interest rate cut (LPR cut by 25bp), is it a big positive?
A rate cut is good, but not that big of a stimulus to the economy; There are also hidden costs, and the real interest rate is still about 8%.
Central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, listed enterprises, and small and medium-sized private enterprises face different interest rates.
The current economy does not have strong policies, and it is not easy to recover.
Q&A session:1.If you buy U.S. stocks, buy Nvidia or NASDAQ?
A: Actually, Nvidia I think, in fact, from my personal experience, I think it's overvalued, but you don't care about my valuation, and don't care about my valuation experience, because I'm a person who misses Google. So I really don't dare to answer you, but I don't think I missed the U.S. stock market, or I didn't miss the opportunity for global growth. So from the scope of my knowledge, I will invest in a NASDAQ ETF, and prove that I have made money by investing.
A friend of mine bought Nvidia, and he not only bought Nvidia, but also added a lot of leverage to Nvidia. Makes a lot of money, more than I do. But we both made money in our own cognition, so I still say that in the end, you make money in your cognition. You see the two of us are the same, and we both make completely different money.
2.I just asked if the delay in the Fed's interest rate cut has any impact on Hong Kong stocks, and he should have bought Hong Kong stocks.
A: There is not much of an impact mechanism. That is, we call excluding China, this is Hong Kong stocks, I went to Hong Kong a while ago, I think Hong Kong's capital market is indeed facing restructuring, maybe this I will talk about the revaluation of Chinese assets, because it has one in the valuation of capital, that is, in the discount rate, it has a discount to the system. So why has Hong Kong become Asia's financial center? Because it is adopted in common law, but now the common law system in Hong Kong, China is not very pure, so this part of the risk premium will have to come in, so this is more difficult.
3.The industry leader of A-sharesI suggest that you don't waste too much time in this A-share market, but I can talk a little bit about the industry leader, but because of this logic, in fact, I think the industry leader stocks can be bought. To be honest, you won't say anything else, but there is a problem in China, which is that I can't estimate the risk premium, so I'm also calculating it myself. For example, in the medical cosmetology industry, after I went to lecture with the medical cosmetology industry, I found that the medical cosmetology industry has maintained a double-digit growth rate in the past few years under such a difficult situation, and they all have profits in the upstream enterprises, so that person is very good. But you can't stop it, it still falls in a **field, that is, **as soon as it falls.
4.Can I continue to hold Treasury bonds**? Already to 105The number of 8 has actually reached the 107 before Mr. Xu, so we are clearing the warehouse and not earning the last penny. But this time we're still hesitating, but I think it's worth thinking again. It's that after the LPR has dropped, I feel as if there are some signs of positive news for the national debt. So do you want to, but this is honest, compared to before, its yield is not so certain. Do you want to fight for this money on the knife edge? Anyway, if I think that if it were me, the previous profit was already very high, so I didn't take a little risk. It's hard to talk about the so-called if you haven't made money before, it depends on your mentality.
5.How about Hong Kong supporting Bitcoin transactions? What is the impact on the subsequent Bitcoin?
Answer: Digital currency is actually digital currency, they Hong Kong support is useless, we say this is a digital **, Hong Kong does not play a big role in it, it may be a good thing for Hong Kong. But it has no impact on Bitcoin, but the most important thing is that Bitcoin is now included in the US dollar system called the digital dollar system. This is a very important place, because digital assets, my point of view is that young people under the age of 40 are sure to understand, and preferably be able to touch.
6.What about the bank**? How to answer the future market of the four major banks?
A: I think this question can be answered more honestly. When I pulled it up this time, the ** of the four major lines was pulled very fast. This time the LPR was lowered, and the long and short ends of the drop did not come down, which is actually not good for the bank. Banks are definitely narrowing spreads, which is unfavorable. And then I don't know why his bank stocks are rising, of course it's possible. One market is wrong, and the other may be that the market expects it to fall, and it will definitely bring down the short end. Because the party must protect the bank, because the bank cannot fail, so it will reduce the short-end faster, so to ensure such a benefit of the bank, so the logic of judgment is policy.
Do you want to buy the ** of the four major banks? I'm definitely not going to buy it. But I agree with my mom buying it. Or if it's not my mother, it's my aunt, the money is for the elderly. I agree with her buying it.
7.There are not many opportunities for non-professional people this year.
8.Is buying a second-hand house in downtown Shanghai a good investment choice this year? Can it outperform inflation? The community I fancy for 10 years has been falling last year, and there is another one for young people's first house, is there a chance for second-hand housing in Beijing? Beijing's Haidian is also stumbling. What How Long Does It Take to Recover?
A: Because I live in the Wanliu area, it is rare to see houses below 140,000 yuan, and this year I saw a house of 90,000 yuan for the first time, which should be very rare, but it is indeed a big signal.
Anyway, you won't be good if you buy your first house, and you won't sell it within 5 years anyway. Up and down, you don't have anything. It's a stable asset for you, and you won't regret it if we look at it in five to ten years.
It is particularly core that is the first and second lines, and houses in Beijing, Shanghai, and Haidian will definitely outperform inflation. Houses in the core areas of the core urban area must be able to outperform inflation, it is such a simple truth.
Because the policy has not come out, it has a force called falling that is still pulling it. In addition, at least you have to wait for the first-hand house to disappear, basically after a wave of digestion before you can recover, then the more optimistic estimate is October 2024. If you buy a house in Beijing this year, we can suggest that he wait until October this year to observe, and he should have a better chance to pick up the leaks.