As Trump leaves the White House, speculation grows about his future political movements. Amid this speculation, it is widely believed that while Trump's political views have not fundamentally changed, he may face a very different domestic and foreign environment. This change could affect his views on the exercise of executive power, as well as the status and role of the United States in the world.
Trump's political views are likely to remain unchanged after he leaves the White House. He may still believe that the global alliance system is in the way, tearing apart the global system is the best way to achieve U.S. economic security, and that ambiguous diplomacy with ** countries can bring more benefits to the United States, and a unilateralist foreign policy is the best choice. However, he is likely to be more extreme, more aloof, and more aggressive in his second term, and no longer committed to upholding geopolitics and the liberal value system.
Trump's second term is likely to change dramatically, both domestically and internationally. Washington is likely to face an even more sinister situation, dealing with several wars, intensifying great-power competition, and an increasingly fragile liberal order. Trump's team may have done the preparations they didn't have time to do last time, and they have a turned-Republican Party behind them, with a very detailed list of friends and foes, and therefore better equipped to subordinate the American bureaucracy to their will.
During Trump's second term, it is expected that America's rivals and adversaries will be at ease, while America's traditional allies will most likely suffer. Trump is likely to pursue more extreme policies, even by coercing the US bureaucracy to strip its civil servants of their protected status, allowing them to be fired en masse. Trump may also resort to other means, such as purging the military of those who have not shown enough loyalty to him.
Trump's foreign policy in his second term is likely to continue some of the hallmarks of his first term, but it is likely to be more extreme and unstable. He is likely to step up China's economic competition, raise defense spending, and take a more aggressive approach in dealing with other countries. Trump is likely to put more pressure on America's allies and take a more unilateral and self-interested approach to international issues.
Trump's second term may face challenges from home and abroad, but it may also give him more opportunities to advance his political agenda. Despite the uncertainty, there is good reason to believe that Trump 20 would be Trump 10, his return will bring a more unilateralist, more aloof, and occasionally more aggressive America.