** Bohufn
Author |An Xiao.
In 2024, will the way out for Internet celebrity noodle restaurants be the road to listing?
Recently, a number of ** reports said that Hefu Lao Mian plans to list in Hong Kong, planning to raise 1-200 million US dollars, and the listing has been approved by Huatai International Cooperation, and at the same time settled in Hong Kong Causeway Bay to open the first store in Hong Kong. At the same time, the noodle chain brand Meet the Noodles also announced an initial public offering in Hong Kong, which is expected to raise about US$100 million.
And this is not the first time that Hefu Lao Mian has been listed on the rumor, as early as 2022, there will be news of Hefu Lao Mian's overseas listing. In fact, in the past two years, the new Chinese noodle restaurant track has suffered a cooling, and in 2022, a large number of Internet celebrity noodle restaurants will close in the market, and narrow door data shows that Chen Xianggui, who had proudly vowed to open 1,000 stores in 2023, has dropped from 237 to 191, and the number of Wuye mixed noodle stores has also decreased sharply.
Nowadays, the market has become more and more strict in controlling the listing of enterprises. In a number of policies promulgated by the China Securities Regulatory Commission last year, it was clearly stipulated that mass consumer enterprises such as food, home appliances, furniture, clothing, shoes and hats with relatively traditional and low industry barriers belonged to the restricted category, and the market even reported the "IPO traffic light industry review standard rules".
At this moment, can Hefu Lao noodles be listed, can it be successful?
Nowadays, the capital market is becoming more and more rigorous in the review of corporate listings, but it cannot stop the pace of listing of some catering companies.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2024, ready-made tea chain brands such as Mixue Bingcheng, Gu Ming, and Shanghai Auntie have submitted prospectuses one after another, and restaurant chain brands such as Xiaocaiyuan have also reported the news of listing in Hong Kong.
At this time, Hefu Lao Noodles, as a representative of the emerging noodle food, naturally has to seize this opportunity.
For Hefu Lao Mian itself, it also needs to go public to boost the company's brand upgrade plan and store expansion goals.
At the end of last year, at the 2024 strategic meeting of the Hefu Lao Noodle brand, the founder Li Xuelin disclosed the brand 20 upgrade plan, and put forward the strategic direction of "finding friends, sinking, going to sea, and deep layout". At the same time, the company also plans to move towards the goal of 20,000 stores in the next 10 years.
Financing is essential to accomplish these plans.
According to the company's data, since 2016, Hefu Lao Mian has received a total of 6 rounds of financing, and in 2021, when Internet celebrity catering is hot, Hefu Lao Mian has set a record for the largest financing scale in the catering industry with nearly 800 million yuan in E round of financing, and the valuation was once as high as 7 billion yuan.
You must know that in June 2021, there were only about 340 stores in Hefu Lao Mein, which is equivalent to a store valuation of 20 million, and the average price of a bowl of noodles in the store at that time was 40 yuan, if this is calculated as a net profit, each store will have to sell at least 500,000 bowls.
Although the valuation and unit price of Hefu Lao Mian are high, its own financial situation is not ideal.
According to its early investor, Juewei Duck Neck, from 2020 to 2022, the parent company of Hefu Lao Noodles, "Jiangsu Hefu Catering", achieved revenue of 110.7 billion yuan, 173.2 billion and 14$5.6 billion; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -20.6 billion yuan, -21.1 billion and -29.9 billion yuan.
In other words, the cumulative loss of Fu Lao Mian in the past three years has reached 700 million yuan, although this is inevitably affected by the epidemic, but in 2023, it seems that there will be no special measures to get rid of this loss curse, coupled with the acceleration of store expansion, the loss problem will continue to be under pressure.
What's more noteworthy is that the company's debt ratio also remains high. According to the disclosure, from 2021 to 2022, the debt ratio of Hefu Lao Mian will increase from 6169% to 751%。
In 2022, Hefu Lao Mian will open up its franchise in order to increase its performance and even change the direct sales model that it has adhered to for a long time. However, during the year, there were reports of more than 10 managers of the company leaving and a large number of employees leaving, and at the same time, there were ** reports that the franchise team had been disbanded at that time.
At the end of last year, Hefu Lao Mian announced that it would open up joint operations and officially enter the "direct + joint operation" mode, and it is not yet known whether the model can be successful.
It can be seen that in the exploration of business models, the optimal solution has not yet been solved, and the problem of financial losses is still there. Next, whether it's brand 20 upgrade, or 10,000 store expansion, which requires the support of funds, financing and listing to its importance can be imagined.
Nowadays, the epidemic has brought about economic weakness, and the best pasta is no longer favored by the public, leaving little opportunity for this high-end pasta tycoon. So, what do you get for a listing "ticket"?
As far as the noodle industry is concerned, Hefu Lao Noodles is in a leading position.
According to Frost & Sullivan's "Blue Book of China's Noodle Industry", as of September 2023, in the domestic noodle market, Hefu Lao Noodle has the largest direct sales revenue, and the growth rate of direct sales revenue and the number of directly operated stores are leading the industry, ranking first among Chinese noodle restaurants.
In addition, as confirmed by the above data, the financing power and revenue scale are in an advantageous position with Fu Lao Mian, but there are also many problems.
Just like the above financial problems, Hefu Lao Mian has been in a loss-making situation, coupled with the prevailing "consumption downgrade" in recent years, consumers are more sensitive to "xx assassins" such as "ice cream assassins" and "beverage assassins", and high-end Internet celebrity noodles seem to be marked with question marks in the future.
As far as the fast food industry itself is concerned, consumers are also concentrated in the low-end market. According to iiMedia Research, Chinese consumers' acceptance of Chinese fast food** is mostly in the 20 yuan** band. Of these, 437% of people budget less than 20 yuan, 852% accept** up to $30.
However, since its establishment, Hefu Lao Noodles has set up a label of "nourishing noodles in the study", and a bowl of "herbal soup" noodles in its store can be sold for forty or fifty yuan, and the original price of time-honored crab noodles is as high as 108 yuan. Under the trend of consumption downgrade, whether a bowl of noodles at 40 yuan for Hefu Lao Noodles can still be accepted by consumers has to be put on a question mark.
What's even more unacceptable is that the 40 bowls of noodles in Hefu Lao Mian are expensive enough, but there are also problems with food safety.
In terms of black cat complaints, there are 124 complaints related to Fulao noodles, most of which are "moldy noodles", "insects", "black spots on the lid", etc.
Recently, Hefu Lao Mian has also been caught in a pre-made food turmoil.
According to a ** report, an internal employee of Hefu Lao Mian broke the news that "the store of Hefu Lao Mian does not have a ramen chef and chef." The noodles are made in the factory, the toppings are basically pre-made, and they only need to be heated, and the soup is mixed with water in the cooking packets. ”
Food safety and the turmoil of prefabricated dishes have intensified consumers' doubts about their high-quality and high-quality products.
It can be seen that not only the financial or hematopoietic ability is doubtful, but also the food safety and customer source issues are also problems that need to be solved urgently.
However, Hefu Lao Mian has also made positive changes.
On the one hand, there is the model of open association mentioned above.
Last year, Li Xuelin said, "The company plans to adopt the 'direct + associated' business model, and the associated stores will be operated in a 'quasi-direct, fully managed, and co-risk' model, with a relatively small single store area, and priority will be given to second-tier and below cities to open applications." ”
It can be known through this passage that Hefu Lao Mian wants to ensure the quality of the operating products of the joint stores through the quasi-direct sales model and full trusteeship, although the cost of opening a store is higher than that of the franchise model, it can solve the standard and quality problems brought about by the franchise.
However, in the future, the "direct + joint operation" model is destined to encounter a lot of cost pressure, and it is not yet known how to fill the loss loophole with Fulao noodles, and how to share the cost pressure?
In addition, it can be seen that the next store expansion target of Hefu Lao Mian includes the sinking market, but it is obviously not feasible to enter the sinking market.
For this reason, the product line of Hefu Lao Mian has also ushered in a price reduction.
Li Xuelin said in an interview with **, "The overall decline is about 30%." "From the point of view, the product system of Hefu Lao Mian is also being stratified, not only covering the range of 25-108 yuan, but also enlarging the product matrix of 20-30 yuan.
According to the analysis of industry insiders, "most of the competitors in this market are cost-effective traditional noodle restaurants, and the characteristics of these noodle restaurants are 'more categories, fewer brands, and most affordable'." "It is not yet known whether Hefu Lao Noodles, which entered the sinking market by cutting prices, can get a piece of the pie.
According to the "2023 China Noodle Track Big Data Research Report", 569% of consumers believe that "reasonable" is an important factor in the consumption of noodle dishes, 533% of consumers spend no more than 20 yuan on noodle dishes, and now the range of 20-30 yuan after the price reduction of Hefu Lao noodles is only 208% of consumers said it was acceptable.
It can be seen that it is doubtful whether the Hefu noodles that put down their body and ** can be liked by the public. However, after putting down the high customer unit price and profits, can Hefu Lao Noodles, which is trying to tell a new story in the low-end and high-end markets, impress the capital? In the end, it may depend on the efficiency of its goal of 20,000 stores.
Another major layout is that Hefu Lao Mian is planning to go to sea.
Li Xuelin said, "At present, the company has been discussing cooperation with Southeast Asia, and after the Southeast Asian model is verified, it will consider expanding to Australia, the United States, Europe, etc. in the future." ”
As you know, the biggest problem with catering going overseas is the difference in the eating habits of foreigners, for which companies have to pay higher education and cognitive costs. This road is also destined to be difficult, and it is difficult to quickly get through the second growth curve.
In general, as the leader of the high-end noodle industry, Hefu Lao Mian needs to quickly change to adapt to the changes in the market when the dividends of Internet celebrity noodle restaurants are gradually disappearing, and at the same time, it also needs to go public and raise funds to pave the way for its strategy or store expansion.
But the road to listing is destined not to be smooth sailing, and whether Hefu Lao Mian can finally win the "first share of Chinese noodle restaurants" and at the same time provoke a wave of listing of emerging noodle companies, let's wait and see.
References: 1. Leopard Change: A loss of 700 million yuan in 3 years, how far is Hefu Lao Mian from "China McDonald's"?
2. Financial Mowgli: Before the listing of Hefu Lao Noodles, can you first explain the matter of "prefabricated dishes"?
3, slightly *** and Fu Lao noodles, finally in a hurry.
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