On March 5, China's urban and rural residents' pensions and retirees' basic pensions ushered in good news at the same time. **The work report clearly states that the basic pension standard for urban and rural residents will be raised, and the pension treatment of retirees will continue to be improved. What is the magnitude of the increase?
The latest statistics show that at present, the number of people enjoying pensions for urban and rural residents nationwide is as high as 1700 million, which is even more than the number of retirees receiving a basic pension. Based on the planning and deployment of the first work report, the minimum standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents will be significantly increased in 2024, with a one-time increase of 20 yuan.
After the increase, the minimum standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents will jump from the original 103 yuan to 123 yuan, which is converted to a significant increase of 194%, which can be called a high growth in recent years. Looking back on the past, the first two increases were 5 yuan each time, gradually increased from 93 yuan to 98 yuan, and then from 98 yuan to 103 yuan, and this year's increase was directly doubled to 20 yuan, which effectively responded to the people's ardent expectations for improving the pension treatment of urban and rural residents.
The basic pension of urban and rural residents actually includes two parts: the basic pension and the local basic pension, and the minimum standard of the basic pension is raised. With the improvement of the first-level standards, the basic pension in various places will also rise, forming a linkage effect.
It is worth mentioning that the highest level of basic pension for urban and rural residents appears in Shanghai, which has reached 1,400 yuan per month. If other regions can learn from Shanghai's practice and follow suit, it will undoubtedly greatly improve the happiness of urban and rural pensioners.
To sum up, in the context of the significant improvement of the minimum standard of basic pension for urban and rural residents this year, the amount of basic pension distribution across the country will increase by at least 20 yuan, which is a more obvious increase compared with the past, and such a policy adjustment is undoubtedly highly commendable.
As for the increase in the pension of retirees, although it is not clearly indicated in the original paragraph, it will also be raised, and the specific amount of the increase has yet to be further announced.
Although the specific amount of pension increases for urban and rural residents has been officially announced, for the majority of retirees, they are more concerned about the increase in basic pensions. Unfortunately, this key message has not yet been clearly stated in the recent ** work report. As a result, we currently have to rely on historical data and publicly available sources for analysis.
Looking back at the data of the past two years, the increase in the basic pension of retirees in China in 2023 will be 38%, compared to 4% in 2022. So, what about the increase in 2024?
According to the current situation, the pension increase is expected to remain relatively stable in 2024. Although some people believe that in view of the significant increase in the basic pension of urban and rural residents, the increase in the pension of retirees may also be increased accordingly, but this possibility is not optimistic.
The main reason is that the base of pensions for urban and rural residents is generally low, compared with the base of basic pensions for retirees;
In addition, pension adjustments will refer to factors such as price increases, and the price increase in 2023 will only be 02%, suggesting that price pressures have a limited impact on the cost of living for retirees, suggesting that pension increases are likely to be lower than the previous year's 38%。
I personally estimate that in 2024, the increase in the basic pension of retirees in China may hover at 35% to 38% range.
It is worth noting that the pension increase that each retiree can actually enjoy is not a unified standard, but is based on the original level of pension, working years, whether it belongs to the elderly retirement group and other factors, so the specific individual pension increase varies greatly.