1. Strategic suggestions
In the current situation, the trading strategy recommends that short orders gradually take profit, wait for the basis to repair and then look for high-altitude opportunities. If you want to capture the basis convergence opportunity, you can pay attention to the 5-9 positive set, but ** is already on the high side.
2. Fundamental analysis
Supply side:The supply side is temporarily stable, but there are still some production lines that have not yet been produced. It is expected that the subsequent daily melting volume will reach 1750,000 tons or more.
Demand side:The start of downstream deep processing has gradually returned to normal. The destocking of spot inventories in the Shahe area is nearing the end, and the inventory of traditional merchants began to deplete this week. According to the data, the cumulative warehouse of manufacturers and traditional first-class merchants in the Shahe area is about 20,000 tons, which is equivalent to the current shipments, and the overall Shahe area maintains a balance between production and sales.
Availability:Except for the Shahe area, the inventory pressure in other areas is neutral. In the short term, the spot** tends to run smoothly, unless there is a low-price supply shock.
Basis Analysis:The current basis has reached the highest level in history for the same period. Heading into March, the expected time is running out. After April, the disk will enter the spot logic with a high probability. The real downstream demand will be concentrated in mid-to-late March. It remains to be seen whether there will be such a large downside in the spot.
Drivers:Problems such as bad downstream orders and poor payment collection have been priced on the disk. Potential bearish drivers may include the lack of positive signals from the two sessions and the extremely poor start of construction. However, judging from the recovery of downstream deep processing order days, the situation is not extreme. In addition, even if the spot is fast, it will also promote the willingness of some downstream to replenish the stock.
III. Conclusion
In the demand recovery phase, the market needs to continue to decline to be driven by very strong pessimistic expectations or extremely poor reality. The price drop will promote the willingness of some replenishment. Therefore, strategically, it is recommended to take profit gradually for short orders, wait for the basis to be repaired, and then look for opportunities in the sky. If you want to capture the basis convergence opportunity, you can pay attention to the 5-9 positive set.
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Important: This report strives to be objective and unbiased in its contents, citations and data. Reliable, accurate and complete to the best of our ability, but not the accuracy and completeness of the information stated in the reportThe information provided in this report is for reference only and is not used as the basis for investment decisions。Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.