China Economic Q&A at the Two SessionsWhat is China's economic growth potential? -- One of the questions and answers on China's economy at the two sessions
During the two sessions of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress, China's economy has attracted much Last year, China's economy rebounded on the whole, but some foreign media continued to clamor that China's economic potential had "peaked" and growth had "peaked".
Has China's economy really peaked?
GDP growth of about 5%", the first work report submitted for consideration on the 5th, showing the expected target for the new year, which is the same as last year's expected economic growth target, which is a powerful response to the "peak theory".
Perspective growth target: "about 5%" shows enterprising
In the face of a more complex and severe external environment and multiple difficulties in the domestic economy, why is the growth target still set at around 5%?
*The work report explains: It takes into account the needs of promoting employment and income, preventing and mitigating risks, and is in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the goal of basically realizing modernization, and also considers the potential and supporting conditions for economic growth.
Economic growth of about 5% is a goal that can be achieved through struggle, showing China's most enterprising and promising state. Zhou Li'an, director of the Faculty of Economics and Management of Peking University, said that this goal is conducive to boosting confidence, guiding expectations, and better building consensus on development.
The growth target is an important guide for the country's economic development. The reporter found that from 2003 to 2023, except for special years such as the outbreak of the epidemic, China did not set specific targets for economic growth, and set targets in the rest of the years, and achieved the development task well.
In recent years, China's economy has not been smooth sailing, but has overcome difficulties along the way.
The SARS epidemic in 2003, the Wenchuan epidemic in 2008, the international financial crisis, and the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020 ......In the midst of ups and downs, China has not only not become the "next collapsed economy" as foreign media say, but has moved forward under pressure, maintained sustained economic growth, and injected impetus into the world economy.
The argument of singing about China has repeatedly hit a wall in the face of facts.
In the past 10 years, China's economic growth has continued to climb over hurdles: GDP exceeded 60 trillion yuan in 2014, 80 trillion yuan in 2017, and 100 billion yuan in 2020. In the context of the impact of the epidemic, it has also exceeded the 110 trillion yuan and 120 trillion yuan marks one after another.
The past year has been a recent example.
In 2023, China's economy will grow by 52%, calculated at comparable prices, the corresponding economic increment of more than 6 trillion yuan, placed 10 years ago, it needs to exceed 10% growth rate to achieve. Longitudinal comparison, 5The growth rate of 2% is faster than the three-year epidemic of 45% average growth rate; Side-by-side, faster than the U.S. 25%, Eurozone 05%, Japan 1The economic growth rate of 9% is expected to contribute more than 30% to world economic growth.
China's economy remains an important engine of global economic growth. Spain's Economist newspaper ** recently reported that many people's eyes are focused on China's slowing GDP growth, but behind the data lies a more promising side: this "Asian giant" is still growing at a rate of about 5% per year, and if this trend continues, Chinese's per capita GDP will increase amazingly.
A mega-economy that can continue to grow at a medium and high speed cannot be labeled as 'peaking' in any case. Pan Jiaofeng, dean of the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said.
Understanding the Economic Landscape: What is China's Medium- and Long-Term Growth Potential?
Compared with short-term growth, the outside world is more concerned about the medium- and long-term development trend of China's economy. Some people in the United States and the West claim that "China's economic growth is sluggish" and "China's prosperity is nearing the end".
The number of KFC stores in China exceeded 10,000, and Airbus' first aircraft life cycle service project outside Europe was put into operation in Chengdu......Foreign-funded enterprises have expressed their optimism about the Chinese market with practical actions.
According to a report by the American Chamber of Commerce in China, about half of the companies surveyed will maintain the same scale of investment in China in 2024, and nearly 40% plan to increase capital in China. According to a survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, 59% of companies surveyed see China as one of the three main investment destinations.
Investments, which usually take into account medium- to long-term factors. The trend of foreign investment highlights the confidence in the medium- and long-term development of China's economy. As Procter & Gamble's Chairman and CEO James Muren said, the challenges in the market are temporary, and "China's long-term opportunities remain."
In terms of growth rate alone, compared with the high growth rate in previous years, China's economic growth rate has indeed slowed down. As China's economy shifts to a high-quality development channel, it emphasizes the effective improvement of "quality" and the reasonable growth of "quantity", and no longer "judges heroes by GDP", and the economy has slowed down but not stalled.
Potential growth rates are widely used to analyze and determine the medium- and long-term trends of a country's economic development. Studies by a number of domestic institutions show that China's potential growth rate is between 5% and 6% at this stage, and there is internal support for stable economic growth.
Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that from the past development process of catch-up economies such as the "Asian Tigers" and high-income countries, the per capita GDP is between 1Between $20,000 and $20,000, the economic development potential continues to be released. At present, China's economy is in a stage where its growth potential continues to be released.
China's economy is in a period of steady recovery and a critical period of structural adjustment, with sufficient internal vitality and great potential for sustained growth, and there is no 'peak' in economic growth. Deputy Tian Xuan, deputy dean of Tsinghua University's PBC School of Finance, said that the key is to concentrate on doing our own things well and effectively dealing with risks and challenges.
From the perspective of the factors that determine the potential growth rate, after years of development and accumulation, China's factor resources are more abundant, providing important support for China's economy to resist shocks.
China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories in the United Nations Industrial Classification, and the added value of manufacturing accounts for about 30% of the world's total; It is the world's second largest commodity consumer market and the largest online retail market; The total number of human resources, scientific and technological human resources, and R&D personnel all rank first in the world......
Institutional Advantages", "Demand Advantages", "Supply Advantages" and "Talent Advantages",* The work report interprets China's economic fundamentals, pointing out that "China's development will surely break through the wind and waves, and the future can be expected".
Why do those who sing the praises of China's economy make mistakes again and again? The reason for this lies in the cognitive biases and misunderstandings about the strong resilience and development law of China's economy. Wang Changlin, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and member of the CPPCC National Committee, said that China is a large economy, the socialist system with Chinese characteristics has unique advantages in coping with major risks and challenges, and China's economy has a strong ability to resist shocks and self-stabilize and self-repair. During the critical period of China's transition to high-quality development, it is inevitable that it will encounter various problems and challenges, and even experience necessary pains, but China's economic development has confidence, advantages, and opportunities, and the long-term positive trend will not change.
Unleashing growth potential: Boost confidence and put action first
During the Spring Festival holiday in the Year of the Dragon, the vitality of China's consumer market blooms: domestic tourism 47.4 billion person-times, an increase of 19% over the same period in 2019 on a comparable basis, and the box office of Spring Festival movies exceeded 8 billion yuan, setting a record for the same period.
Singapore's "Lianhe Zaobao"** recently published an article titled "Spring Festival Consumption is Hot, China's Economy Is Booming? Citing expert views, China's economy is standing at a turning point of confidence after a year of post-epidemic recovery.
At present, China's economic development is indeed facing some difficult challenges:
The momentum of world economic growth is insufficient, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising; Domestic effective demand is insufficient, some industries have overcapacity, social expectations are weak, some small and medium-sized enterprises have business difficulties, and total employment pressure and structural contradictions coexist.
However, the overall judgment is that strategic opportunities, risks and challenges coexist, and the favorable conditions for China's economic development are stronger than the unfavorable factors.
The bright future of China's economy is not calculated, but done. Committee member Zhou Lian said that it is necessary to firmly seize the favorable opportunity, make good use of the favorable conditions, do more things that are conducive to boosting confidence and expectations, and strive to transform development potential into development strength.
Open the first work report, "vigorously promote the construction of a modern industrial system and accelerate the development of new quality productivity" is placed at the top of this year's top ten tasks.
This is the key to unlocking the potential and reshaping the momentum of China's economy. Xu Guanju, chairman of Transfar Group, said that it is necessary to adhere to the real economy as the foundation, scientific and technological innovation as the core, and industrial upgrading as the direction, accelerate the cultivation of new quality productivity, and inject strong impetus into the high-quality development of China's economy.
We will thoroughly implement the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education, focus on expanding domestic demand, unswervingly deepen reforms, effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and earnestly protect and improve people's livelihood and ......The "construction drawings" of striving to complete the annual goals and tasks are clear.
We must brace our spirits, do solid work, and strive to achieve practical results in all aspects of our work as soon as possible. Deputy Yang Dayong, mayor of Baicheng City, Jilin Province, said that it is necessary to focus on the expectations of enterprises and the masses, and promote China's economy to continue to improve, stabilize and achieve far-reaching results.