"ASML refused to withdraw from China's leading lithography machine, TSMC, etc"！
Foreign-funded enterprises, in the eyes of ASML shareholders, suddenly found that TSMC, Samsung, etc. have disappeared from the list of ASML shareholders, and Intel, the once largest shareholder, now has almost no shares in ASML
As the world's largest lithography company, ASML has achieved market exclusivity, with EUV lithography technology unique to ASML. This initially made ASML the world's leading manufacturer of thermal chip devices, but with the introduction of 2nm EUV lithography, the company seems to have reached its limits.
ASML has begun mass production of 2nm EUV lithography equipment and has delivered the first device to Intel. Intel has announced that it will start mass production of 2nm process technology this year, while TSMC is not expected to produce 2nm process technology until next year, in order to gain a technological advantage over TSMC, Intel has brought a large order to ASML, which will have 2nm** systems this year and next. It is said that it has been allocated. The order value will reach more than 56 billion RMB.
However, ASML also says that 2nm EUV lithography could be the last generation of lithography. This is because the technological frontier of silicon-based chips is generally considered to be 1nm, and 2nm EUV lithography can be used to produce 1nm-level process technology, so there is little hope for further development of this lithography technology.
For ASML, the current 2nm EUV lithography machine is TSMC, Samsung and Intel, these three companies will be able to purchase enough 2nm EUV lithography machine by next year, in this case, these three chip manufacturers will no longer rely on ASML next year, and will no longer hold ASML's ** There is no point in holding ASML shares, and ASML will be abandoned.
Now, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have acquired enough 2nm EUV lithography machines, but ASML is not completely out of the market. The Chinese market is also the last significant opportunity for ASML.
GECoChip and TFN, the world's five largest chip companies, have announced that they will stop research and development on sub-10nm processes, which means that they and other chip companies will not buy EUV lithography machines as well as the latest 2nm EUV lithography machines, and outside of these companies, Chinese chip companies have been showing buying interest.
In 2018, Chinese chip manufacturers paid 1200 million yuan, but due to the United States, ASML could not deliver. In fact, ASML can't do anything but EUV lithography, not even the mature DUV lithography process. In September last year, ASML unexpectedly obtained a license to China's **2000i for 7nm process technologyASML accidentally obtained a license to China's **2000i DUV lithography machine for 7nm process technology, but after January 1 this year, it lost this license, leaving China's 28nm and above DUV lithography machines can only be sold to China.
TSMC, Samsung, and Intel have long stopped buying EUV lithography machines, but 2nm EUV lithography machines will be launched next year, and the Chinese market**, where demand for EUV lithography machines is limited. Next year's ** of 2nm EUV lithography machines will be the beginning of ASML's decline, and in this case, we can foresee the inevitable failure of TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.
If ASML can sell EUV lithography machines to China, it will hold on for a few more years, but unfortunately, this is not an option. The recession will begin next year, which also means the end of silicon-based chips. All this may force the chip industry in China and the United States to decide which technical route will become a new starting point for the chip industry.