I reproduce "free" room delivery
Logic
Avoid pits
Summary
Since the beginning of Yanjiao 21 years, there are owners who can't bear the loan to send the house for free, and now in 2024, the owners around the country can't bear it, and they have followed suit, and I read a news in the morning in Sihui City, Zhaoqing, Guangdong, "I send the house for free, and I have been paying it monthly for 5 years, is anyone interested" The reporter learned from a real estate agent that this phenomenon is not an exception, and the agent himself has 5-6 sets of free real estate in his hands.
The logic of giving away for nothing
The logic of free delivery is not difficult to understand, when the loan amount exceeds the current ** of the property, at this time no down payment will be charged"Room delivery"It is beneficial to the seller.
As a simple example, Mr. Li bought a house with a total price of 1 million yuan in 2020, with a down payment of 300,000 yuan and a loan of 700,000 yuan, and now the real estate is sluggish, and the market price of this house is only 550,000 yuan, which is 450,000 yuan, which is 150,000 more than the down payment.
In this case, if Mr. Li's own economic strength allows, it is a way to continue to repay the loan"The tooth shattered and swallowed in his stomach"choice, but if Mr. Li wants to maximize the benefits, will this house"Send it out"It is cost-effective, because Mr. Li's loan balance may still be 580,000 yuan (which has been repaid for more than 5 years), but it is only worth 550,000 yuan on the market"Free room delivery"Instead, he earned 30,000 yuan.
Then someone may say, understood, all"Free room delivery"If the loan balance is less than the market price, it can still be considered, but this kind of ** is rare.
Or take the case mentioned above, if the house purchased by Mr. Li did not fall to 550,000, fell to 650,000, and the loan was 610,000 at this time, Li always had to sell the house because of complete unemployment and loss of income, then at this time, if the property itself is worth considering in all aspects, then you might as well understand, but this kind of **rare, the reason is simpler, since the house can directly cover the loan repayment, why"Free delivery"This?
However, in real life, I have seen individual houses with loan balances that are less than the market price"Free delivery", because the homeowner has been desperate, the second-hand market has no price, and has no choice but to try a variety of channels.
In fact, the city that has successively spread the information of "free house" is not only Zhengzhou. Since 2023, it has been reported that many cities in China are willing to "give away houses for free".
In essence, the core reason for this trend is that housing prices have fallen, and expectations for the future are generally not high. In some cities, many second-hand houses often fall by more than 30%, which is equivalent to the down payment for some high-level owners. At this time, if you lose your job and lose your income**, even the monthly mortgage repayment will become a problem, so instead of suffering and tangling, it is better to break your arms to survive.
The situation is stronger than people, but the instinct of human nature to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages is destined to these free house delivery behaviors, and the owners of the houses have their own small abacus. There is an analysis on the Internet, that is, starting from the absolute ideal state, starting from the absolutely rational action, when the house price falls, it is time to give the house away for nothing? (Repayment of principal ° current total price of the house?) Very interesting, share it with you; Or follow the example above:
1 million house, with a down payment of 300,000, a commercial loan of 700,000, and an interest rate.
4.2% calculation, assuming that the house price **, after repaying the mortgage for 5 years, will wait until the following figure (Say the Fortune Cat
As shown in the figure above, when the house price falls by about 36%, a house with a total price of one million, after choosing equal principal and interest and repaying the mortgage for 5 years, the remaining repayment principal is 63520,000; When the house price falls by about 43%, a house with a total price of one million, after choosing the same principal and repaying the mortgage for 5 years, the remaining repayment principal is 58330,000. At this time, the repayment principal is almost equivalent to the second-hand house after the house price. And the corresponding decline in house prices, that is, the so-called"The critical point of sending the house"
In other words, when the house price falls by 35%-45%, it is the threshold for sending a house. After all, you can't cut off the mortgage directly, if the house is cut off, the auction money will not be enough to repay the loan, and the bank will be held responsible. Sending a house has also become an option.
But whether it is Zhengzhou or Shenzhen, the free delivery of houses this time has obviously not reached this threshold. In other words, negative equity in the real sense does not conform to the reality of the situation, of course, compared with the house prices that have risen all the way in the past, it must not be the same, one rises and one falls, and the book loss may not reach the threshold of sending the house, but the psychological account. , that's twice as much as normal. One of the interesting things about this world is that different people may have completely different psychological literacy and endurance.
The stress test is a necessary item to witness and test the level of character, reflect the difference in psychological quality, and the difference in screening level, which is what it means. Under the pressure, it is clear that some people have lost their ability and have chosen to escape and try to escape. This is certainly not a good signal for the current Chinese property market: free delivery of houses, cutting meat to avoid risks may not be smooth and successful, but such a trend to the market to release a very bad signal.
People's potential and ability to resist pressure are closely related to expectations, and choosing to send houses for free to transfer debts, and not being willing to insist, is a clear response to the uncertainty of the current people's expectations for the subsequent direction of the property market. Needless to say, housing prices are rising, as long as they are relatively stable, who will do this? Someone does the business of killing heads, and no one asks about the loss-making business, that's what it means.
Of course, this is also a real irony of the downward pressure on China's property market at present. This signal is very bad, and it is also contrary to the country's main planning and thinking for the property market and the real estate industry. Rational prediction, although there is still an epic rescue that is still indulged in the market, there will be no big move in the group expectation of the earth-shattering fantasy, but next, the country will inevitably give more attention and "special care" to the trend of insufficient expectations and lack of confidence in the property market.
Avoid pits
Free gift, directly transferred to you, you just pay the mortgage directly. From the perspective of wanting to take over, I will talk about a few legal issues and give a little hint or reflection to those who want to take over.
First, what are the pitfalls of "free gifts"?
In legal terms, the gift is actually a gift, and the gift of real estate can only be completed after the transfer of ownership, otherwise even if the two parties sign the "Gift Agreement", people can claim to get it back.
Unless, a way, notarized gift.
Otherwise, if a person who does not understand the law repays the loan to others, the other party can also claim to revoke the gift. However, the premise is that you think well, you accept the conditions put forward by others, and you come to repay the loan from the bank.
Second, "transfer directly to you".
In April 2023, the Municipal Bureau of Natural Resources and Planning, together with the Municipal Bureau of Housing Security and Real Estate Administration, jointly issued the "Zhengzhou Stock Housing "Transfer with Mortgage" Handling Process". This process for handling second-hand housing is described in detail in the figure below, so I won't repeat it here.
There is no problem with the loan conditions such as credit investigation between the two parties, and it can be basically carried out, and it is indeed a good policy to transfer the ownership with a mortgage, which solves the problem of needing to advance funds to solve the problem. However, the premise of this mortgage transfer is that there is a real relationship between the sale and purchase of the house, and in addition, the buyer and the bank need to re-register the mortgage, etc. There are two main problems with gifting real estate:
First, the seller does not sell the house, but actually gives the house, but just wants to replace the bank's repayer with the donee, and the bank loan has nothing to do with him.
Second, the bank needs to review the grantee's credit and loan conditions before the bank can lend.
Therefore, when the donor says "direct transfer" to you, the first practical question is whether this policy can be applied to the behavior that there is no housing payment transaction but is actually a gift loan mortgage house? Can the action follow the policy?
In addition, does the bank have any requirements for the donee?
This direct transfer to you, in reality, for the donor, this may be a simple idea, for the donee, there may be a bank there to review you.
Third, what should I do if the donor is already the person subject to enforcement or has a debt litigation dispute?
In reality, there are many such cases, where the homeowner has become the person subject to execution, or is entangled in litigation, and in order to get rid of the lawsuit or evade enforcement, he even wants to untie the set and exchange it for currency to facilitate the transfer of property, and many homeowners take this trick.
People who don't know the truth see the benefits, and in fact, they want to become the court's foreclosure house in the future, what should you do?
Summary
Combined with the logical differences behind the trends of "foreclosure houses" and "free house delivery", we can see the real status quo of China's property market.
The matter of free delivery of the house should be made clear and made clear. To put it bluntly, it's not complicated: why is there a "free room increase" situation one after another? There are two main reasons: first, the current changes in the real estate market, the situation is not optimistic; The second is that the owner faces various possible risks such as unemployment or force majeure, and it is a helpless move to survive with a "broken arm".
Objectively speaking, the problems and risks of this trend are not large, and they are not the same as similar trends in foreclosure houses. Look at a set of data:
From January to March 2023, a total of 70,567 residential houses were auctioned nationwide; The amount of the auction is 636$9.1 billion; The volume of transactions was 21,953 units, and the transaction rate was 3111%;The transaction amount is 324$5.8 billion; The average transaction discount rate is 7904%。
Compared with January to March 2022, the number of residential foreclosure houses listed for auction nationwide is **3741%, the transaction volume was **5% year-on-year, and the average transaction price decreased by 7 year-on-year79%, and the transaction value decreased by 1 year-on-year39%, and the average transaction discount rate decreased by 154 percentage points.
The number of foreclosure houses has skyrocketed, which is more worthy of attention than the trend of free house delivery. Not to mention how much there is growth, how many houses have entered the foreclosure process, just from the continuous growth momentum of foreclosure houses, it can explain a lot of the real situation of China's property market in 2023.
Foreclosure is the worst choice in the downward stage of housing prices, but at least, the vast majority of people whose houses are auctioned are only cash flow breaks, rather than a collapse in confidence and expectations.
The superposition of the increase in foreclosure houses and the trend of free delivery shows that China's current property market may be very close to the critical state. Based on the above logical analysis, what conclusions can be drawn? Don't be bearish, don't sing down, there is one thing to say, there is evidence: an era of buying a house that does not seek value-added, but seeks stability, and even compares losses, is really coming!
For the future real estate market, don't have illusions, the probability of losing money by investing in real estate will be much greater than the probability of making money. From the overall logic of the industry, the future demand for new housing will gradually shrink (negative population growth and slowing down the urbanization process), but the absolute value of housing will continue to increase, oversupply will become a common phenomenon, and it will be difficult for housing prices to maintain the trend of **.
Of course, it is not denied that there will still be some areas of the city in the future where housing prices will continue to **, but how to find such high-quality real estate requires deep professional knowledge, rich industry experience and strong capital. To put it simply, it has nothing to do with the vast majority of ordinary people. Just like in the past few years, some luxury houses in first-tier cities are still in the first place, but even if there is such a judgment, it is difficult to have such abundant funds to invest, and investing in real estate in the future and being able to make money or will be a game that a small number of people can play, and the era of making money by speculating in houses will be gone forever. Seeing the reality clearly, grasping the main line, combining needs, and guiding actions is the right way.
— end —