Corn already has a large share of renewable fuels in the United States and will not change much, but it will increase in Brazil. In terms of biodiesel, Brazil needs to consider Japan and India, which will be one of the main external demands; In the case of ethanol, the focus should be on Indonesia, Malaysia and South Korea.
The new ** of the Americans shows that Brazil is making strong progress in foreign markets, depending on the very frequent climate impacts today, geopolitical conflicts, producer incomes, costs, interest and the evolution of the world economy.
For example, the ** for Ukraine is greatly underestimated, because the future of the region is uncertain due to the war. Ukrainians have an annual corn export potential of 35 million tons, but Usta will remain at 19.5 million tons over the next decade.
According to the Americans, most of the products that will be put on foreign markets in the next decade will leave Brazil. If Usta's expectations are confirmed, Brazil will supply the world market with 72% of soybeans, 46% of corn, 62% of beef, 61% of chicken and 32% of pork in the coming years.
One of the main changes to the protein scenario will be the participation of pork in the U.S. ** balance. After the export of this protein surpassed that of cattle in 2004, it is now its turn to continue to lead the chicken that appeared in 2031.
Brazil's two big leaps will be soybean and corn exports. In 2033 34, the external sales of oilseeds will reach 13.3 billion tonnes, well above the US estimate of 58 million tonnes.
Daniele Sikiira of Agrural said that the acceleration of Brazil in foreign markets and the stabilization of Americans are the result of market choices.
In the wake of Trump's war against China, the U.S. is turning more to the domestic market as it has fallen out of favor with major importers.
Americans seek to increase the value of soybeans, especially the production of renewable diesel. According to the analyst, Brazil should follow this path as well.
Through this inward look, the U.S. seeks to diversify with better quality soybean oil and product suitability. "As domestic demand increases, they pay less attention to China," Daniele said. ”。
Indeed, China is a worrying factor as it seeks to reduce its dependence on soybeans. The population is growing at a different rate than before, pork consumption is declining, and chicken demand is not attracting many consumers, which affects the demand for soybean meal.
The analyst said that the most attractive to consumers now is beef, especially after the income of a large part of the Chinese population has increased.
According to USDA calculations, in 2033 34, China will import 13.8 billion tonnes of soybeans, 38% more than current imports. Corn imports were 26 million and beef imports were 3.9 million.
The Americans insist that Brazil will have the world leader in corn exports of 77.5 million tons within a decade.
Brazil's leadership this year is controversial, but Agrural analysts say there are two factors that need to be considered in the USDA's assessment.
First of all, the agency still estimates the national production in 2023 24 at 12.4 billion tons. After the climate impact, the number of CONAB (Brazilian National ** Company) is 11.4 billion.
Secondly, USDA considers a different ** calendar, from October to September. According to this calculation, by January 2023 24, Brazil will end 27 million tons of crop ** in September.
This observation also applies to cotton, which is commercially available from August to July. Brazil is likely to lead in terms of exports due to lower U.S. crop production in 2023-24 and Brazil's crop has not yet been determined.
In the coming years, five countries will dominate cotton imports, gaining 80% of the fiber in the international market. Bangladesh made its debut in China as the second largest importer, followed by Vietnam, Turkey and Pakistan.
Like cereals, Brazil's share of global protein exports is increasing. Brazilians are already leaders in beef, with 3.9 million tonnes of beef to be released to the market in 2033, a 39% increase over 2023 production.
Chicken exports increased to 6.8 million tonnes, up 39 percent, and pork exports rose to 2.3 million tonnes, up 55 percent.
The main meat importers in the coming years will be China, Mexico, Japan, the United States, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and the European Union.
The Chinese are involved in the import of three proteins (beef, pork and chicken) and dominate the procurement of beef and pork. Mexico is the number one chicken.