It's the pipe that drains the water that is blocked, it's a man-made liquidity trap! 
Recently, the central bank has printed 5 trillion yuan on the hot search. Although, at the beginning of 2023, I also wrote an article "Releasing water, it will accelerate!" and judged that the central bank's balance sheet expansion will rise in a straight line next, and gave three reasons why it will accelerate the release of water. 
However, even so, I did not expect that the central bank would release nearly 5 trillion yuan in just half a year. According to the latest data from the central bank, the total assets of the central bank in July 2023 are 408 trillion, 45 in January 20246 trillion, net expansion of 48 trillion. What level is this? Since 2012, the central bank has released an average of 1 trillion yuan of water every year, 48 trillion is equivalent to the total amount of water released in the past five years since 2012. That's a bit intimidating. But the question isObviously put so much water, in addition to seeing an increase in savings, most people still have no money in their hands, what is the problem? Is it because we have fallen into the "liquidity trap", and it is useless to print the money? No! It is because the pipe for releasing water is blocked, and most of the money is used to repay debts (risk prevention), and it has not been circulated to the real economy at all, resulting in most people having no money in their hands. It is precisely because the pipes that release water are blocked and because of debt repayment that our economy has a false "liquidity trap". Therefore, as long as the plugging point of the pipe for discharging water is not opened, we will only see that the money is printed more and more, but the effect is very poor. 
First of all, let's take a look at how badly the pipe that drains the water is blocked. I have drawn a table comparing the data for the last six months and 2018 with the normal year of 2019. It turned out that the current was blocked even more severely than in 2018. 
In a normal year in 2019, the central bank released 1 trillion yuan of water to banks, which can almost drive banks to lend 20 trillion yuan to the real economy. In the past six months, the central bank has released nearly 5 trillion yuan of water to banks, but it can only drive banks to put 13 yuan into the real economy3 trillion. This proportion is even less than the 15 trillion in 2018. So, what happened in 2018? In 2018, the central bank also put a lot of water into the banks, but the banks were unable to put money into real enterprises, and people were also discussing whether we fell into the liquidity trap. That year, the central bank made a net 14 trillion, plus three RRR cuts, released about 4 trillion base money to banks. Logically speaking, banks should be more able to lend to the real economy, so as to stimulate rapid economic growth. However, the year-on-year GDP growth rate in 2018 was 0 percent lower than that in 20172%, the key indicator to judge whether the water discharge pipe is blocked - social finance, its annual social finance stock has only increased by 15 trillion, which is 5 trillion less than the normalized 2019. The same has been true in the last six months. The pipes that drained the water were blocked even worse than in 2018. So have we really fallen into a liquidity trap? No! 
The real liquidity trap is that there is no constraint on bank lending, and no matter how the central bank releases water to banks, even the water released to banks is still very cheap and as low as 0, and banks cannot lend out through the real economy. In other words,The real liquidity trap is the situation where there are no policy constraints, the economy spontaneously deleverages, and no one borrows money no matter how cheap it is. For example, this happened to the bursting of the bubble in Japan in the 90s of the 20th century and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008. That's the real liquidity trap, and there aren't as many people borrowing as there used to be when interest rates are at 0. And what about us? It is caused by the tightening of debt, and it can be changed, it is not caused by the fact that the economy itself has no growth potential and everyone is holding their purse strings. In 2018, banks were able to lend out, but they were not allowed to lend, and they could not lend. At that time, two things happened, one was the new regulations on asset management, which required banks not to issue loans through off-balance sheet business (shadow banking), that is, we commonly saw banks lending to trust companies, and trust companies lending to enterprises. This is equivalent to blocking a very important dark line for banks to lend to enterprises, resulting in many private enterprises wanting to borrow money but unable to borrow money. Another issue was deleveraging, when the policy required that local debt should not be further expanded, and housing prices were too strong to lend too much to real estate, so that nearly half of bank loans could not flow to infrastructure and real estate. It is precisely because of the above two tightening policies that banks cannot lend if they want to, and the market has a strange phenomenon of water shortage, and the central bank frantically replenishes water (mainly the RRR cut). And this time? The main reasons are similar to 2018, which are also debt tightening and real estate deleveraging, and there are also elements behind the non-concession of loans. However, this time it is more complicated and serious than in 2018. The complication lies in the fact that the tightening of local debt occurred when we had just passed the epidemic in the past three years, and enterprises, residents, and localities all lacked income, and the economic pressure was greater. The serious part is that the bubble of real estate has burst, and people who are scared do not dare to buy a house or want to buy a house, and are more willing to reduce consumption to guard against the uncertainty of the future. This resulted,Localities, enterprises, and residents are caught in the whirlpool of "debt-TS", and they have no intention of borrowing money to expand and consume except to repay debts and borrow money for turnover. Therefore, the author believes that these strange phenomena we see are artificially created, and they are fake liquidity traps created by the double pressure of not being able to borrow and not daring to borrow due to the deterioration of the environment, rather than the real liquidity trap. 
Like this time. The central bank has provided nearly 5 trillion loans to banks, what did the banks do with the 5 trillion? 
1 trillion is to prevent themselves from being short of money in their hands, replenishing 800 billion deposit reserves and 200 billion cash; Even the banks are restocking with extra ammunition to protect against shocks. Why? Bad debts have increased, limiting its ability to lend. On February 28, the Japanese Cabinet Office released a report on "Global Economic Trends", which mentioned that in 2023, the issuance of ** products with non-performing loans held by domestic banks as the underlying assets increased by 46% year-on-year, among which non-performing loans with housing loans and credit cards as the core grew the fastest. 
This shows that many people's incomes have not improved, and they are hitting the financial system such as banks in the form of defaults on mortgages and credit card loans. In order to ensure the stability of the financial system and reduce the impact, banks choose to package bad debts and peddle them out, and travel lightly on their own. That's what's behind the reality of the moment:Risks are intersecting and influencing each other, and the money printed out by the central bank is used by banks to protect against risks and policy preferences for industry loans. Places don't want to borrow money? No, you are not allowed to borrow, only to repay as much as possible. Don't property developers want to borrow money? No, the task of ensuring the delivery of buildings is pressing, and the demand for debt turnover is stronger than that of any industry. It's rotten on your own, and it's harder to borrow money. It is not easy to borrow money if you want to borrow money, and it is not used to expand and continue to let money flow downstream, but to maintain the capital chain and ensure safety, and it is strange that the activity of money is not low. So,At this moment, the pipe that released the water is blocked, and the root cause is the tightening of the policy, so that the water does not move. The lack of economic vitality reduces people's impulse to borrow and increases risk-proof savings. That's what makes us look like we've fallen into a liquidity trap. Because of this, the economic vitality is getting lower and lower, the interest rate is getting lower and lower, and there is a large-scale asset shortage in the country. All locking in long-term gains!! This is the current trend! Those who can save for 5 years do not save for 1 year, those who can buy 30-year treasury bonds do not buy 10 years, and those who can buy 30-year savings insurance do not buy 5 years.
No way,What ordinary people can do is to hedge, and try by all means to make the money in their hands as safe as possible and bring returns slightly higher than the market as much as possible.
However, there are so many means of hedging in China, and it can't be rolled back and forth. The more money you roll, the lower the deposit interest rate, the greater the risk of treasury bonds, and the lower the yield of savings insurance.
We might as well open our eyes and take a lookThink globally through Hong Kong and get more hedging tools.