Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Soochow ** released a research report saying that it is optimistic about the opportunity for the military industry to stabilize and reverse under the over-fall in the early stage, and the medium-term adjustment of various equipment line orders have been signed one after another, and individual personnel changes do not affect the operation of the military systemThe industry is expected to usher in a resurgence of growth and continued valuation repair**.
The main points of Soochow ** are as follows:
The military industry since the beginning of 2024:
First of all, it lasted from January 3 to February 5, and then from February 6 before the Spring Festival to March 1, two weeks after the holiday, it quickly increased by about 26% (of which the three trading days before the holiday rose by 14.).4% ranked first in the industry, and the first week after the holiday**415% ranked 22nd in the industry, and **544% ranked 6th in the industry), and the two-stage merger is still about 93% decline. **At the level, the decline in the range from January 3 to March 1 narrowed lower than that of the industry 9The 3% level is 31, accounting for only 22% of the 138 ** in the military industry.
Look at the direction of the attack at the current point in time:
The military work is an industry with a certain degree of counter-cyclical attributes, and the biggest fundamental change in the industry in the near future is that the demand for orders from various services and arms is being issued step by step after the completion of the medium-term adjustment, and the consensus expectation of fundamental improvement is strong, and it has the opportunity to become the preferred direction for industry comparison.
After a continuous adjustment in 2023, the military industry will fall by about 8 percent so far in 2024Top 8%:
After the disclosure of the performance forecast in January, a wide range of low expectations of the performance were released, and the expectation of high growth in 2024 is more certain under the low point of performance in 2023.
Since February 6, the key words of the subdivision direction of the fast ** are:
Substantial overfall, absolute low valuation, new domain and new quality, core leading chain length, profit and short, etc., multi-point flowering, in the absolute low, funds with various aesthetic standards can be selected to select the target.
In the past two weeks, a number of listed companies have released their 2023 annual performance forecasts Express:
Part of it should be within market expectations, observing the performance of the stock price out of the bearish release; During the same period, a number of listed companies also issued intensive repurchase announcements, some of which have initially increased their holdings, and there is still room for further increases in the future; There is room for continuous upward movement in both industry indices and ** levels.
Two areas of focus:
1) The leading downstream state-owned assets with strong chain length attributes and performance certainty of the military aircraft industry chain, as well as the core supporting enterprises with significant overfall, low valuation and extremely high technical barriers, pay attention to AVIC Shenfei (600760.).SH), AVIC West (000768SZ) and so on;
2) Low-altitude economy is a new major theme investment direction that is expected to replicate satellite Internet, and the air traffic control system is the track with the most scientific and technological growth attributes in the low-altitude economy; As of the end of February, the market value of the air traffic control business of listed companies such as Sichuan Jiuzhou, Sichuan University Zhisheng, and Rice Information added up to about 200+ billion, and there is still a large market value space. It is expected that the follow-up policy will be catalyzed, even very heavy, and the market will pay high attention, which is the direction worth continuing to pay attention to throughout 2024, focusing on Sichuan Jiuzhou (000801sz)。
Risk Warning:
the risk that the medium-term adjustment of military orders is less than expected; the risk that the reform progress is not as expected; Macro risks.