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In 2021 and 2022,pvdf(Polyvinylidene fluoride) once became a hot spot in the market.
BecauseLithium batteriesThe demand in the field of new energy has increased sharply, and the downstream production capacity and technical constraints have led to a shortage of supply, and PVDF has started a hurricane mode, which once soared to near in mid-2022500,000 tons of yuan。With the expansion of enterprise capacity and technological progress, the industry is currently close to the balance of supply and demand or even oversupply, so it began to fall back and gradually return to the level before 2021.
In recent years, PVDF**trend data**: open source** research institute.
In the long run, the PVDF market has been performing betterSmoothThe author expects that unless there is another surge in demand from emerging industries, PVDF will eventually calm down.
1. Look at the faces of the upstream and downstream to eat
PVDF, known as polyvinylidene fluoride in Chinese, is a highly non-reactive thermoplastic fluoropolymer. PVDFPros:It can be described asThe list is endlessIt has the characteristics of both fluorine resin and general resin, and in addition to general properties such as toughness, low friction coefficient and oxidation resistance, it also has special properties such as piezoelectric, dielectric and thermoelectric.
This also leads to PVDFVersatileIn the early days, it was mainly used in the field of coatings, and in recent years, with theLithium batterieswithPhotovoltaicsPVDF is widely used in the weather-resistant layer of lithium battery binders and photovoltaic solar backsheet films.
PVDF Industry Chain Data**: Tokai **Research Institute.
fromDownstream marketsLook, according to the data of Zhiyan Consulting, the proportion of PVDF downstream market applications has changed greatly in the past two years. The amount of lithium batteries in the field is expanding year by year, and in 2022, domestic PVDF will be inLithium batteriesThe proportion of field demand has reached。This leads to changes in the lithium battery sector, which can have a significant impact on PVDF. Looking at it the other way around, PVDF is in lithium batteriesThe dosage is very low。According to Guoxin**'s calculations, PVDF accounts for only a small proportion of the cost of lithium batteriesAround. In other words, lithium batteries are well-deserved gold owners for PVDF, but PVDF is justInsignificantof dust.
PVDF accounts for battery cost estimation Data**: Guoxin ** Research Institute.
fromUpstream raw materialsIt is expected that at present, there are usually acetylene routes and VDC routes for the preparation of PVDF, and no matter which route is produced, it must be produced firstr142bThe preparation of PVDF can be completed with intermediate products. However, R142B is a second-generation refrigerant that can deplete the ozone layer when used on a large scale, so it is strictly enforced for environmental reasonsQuota system。According to relevant data, China's production quota for R142B is indeed thereDecreasing year by yearThis is a constraint on PVDF at the source of production.
R142B and PVDF downstream application distribution Data**: Zhiyan Consulting.
From this point of view, PVDF is the middle link of the industrial chain, and the upstream raw materials are subject to quota control, and the face of the downstream also depends on the face of the person, and PVDF is in the industrial chainThe right to speak is too weak
Second, continue to expand production, supply exceeds demand
As mentioned above, lithium batteries can be said to be the big financiers of PVDF, so in the face of the huge increase in demand for lithium batteries, PVDF naturally has to keep upExpansion of production capacityof footsteps. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, from 2019 to 2021, China's PVDF production capacity and output are growing slowly. After 2021, the industry began to leap forward mode. The production capacity in 2022 is year-on-yearAn increase of 56%., year-on-year productionAn increase of 21%., up to 580,000 tons; Year-on-year production capacity in 2023An increase of 26%., year-on-year productionAn increase of 63%., up to 940,000 tons, it can be seen that the capacity planning of major enterprises has been effective.
PVDF production capacity and output Source**: Open Source Research Institute.
And, according to statistics, at the end of 2022, China's PVDF production capacity (10310,000 tons per year) accounted forGlobalPVDF capacity (16.)950,000 tons per year)., doubling compared to 2021. At the same time, according to public information reports, PVDF production capacity under construction and planned in the world is under constructionMore than 80%.All are invested by Chinese companies. It can be said that China is already **PVDFThe main force
China's PVDF production capacity accounts for 60% of the world's Source**: Fluorine chemical silicones.
According to the data of the Lithium Battery Research Institute of Advanced Engineering Industry and Research, PVDF for lithium batteries in China will be used in 2023DemandFor 680,000 tons, a year-on-year increaseMore than 55%., lithium battery demand accounts for 72% of the total production in 2023. From the perspective of the supply and demand structure of PVDF for lithium batteries, China's PVDF will be close in 2023Balance between supply and demandEvenSupply exceeds demand
The performance of listed companies also shows the current situation of the industry. Taking Juhua Co., Ltd. (600160) as an example, the company is a leader in the fluorine chemical industry, according to the disclosure data: fluoropolymer materials (including PVDF) in 2023Production growthOn the one handlower than the industry as a wholeProduction growth, on the other handLower than the sales growth rate。Illustrate the company inSlowing down productionDigest inventory。The company's overall net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 will be 9 10600 million yuan, year-on-year55% reductionThe main reason for the decrease in the company's performance is the increase in the supply shock of the main product market and the weak demandSupply exceeds demandThe contradiction is prominent.
Main operating data of Juhua shares in 2023 Data**: company announcement.
From the perspective of PVDF, in recent years, China has made great efforts to PVDFHigh dependence on imports, mainly due to the surge in demand in the short termCapacitywithTechnologyDifficulty keeping up. With the gradual implementation of new production capacity and technological improvement of domestic enterprises, domestic production has basically been possibleMeet domestic demand, and even considerableOverseas exports
Domestic PVDF import dependence Source**: Huatai **Research Institute.
3. Catch up with the new outlet
According to the general law of industry development, when the current downstream demand stagnates growth or decreases, it is necessary to seek the industrial chainExtensionorExtensions。PVDF has also encountered a bottleneck at the moment, and after a significant expansion of production capacity, demand has not been able to keep up, which makes PVDF players have to seek it in timeFresh air outlets
As mentioned above, PVDF has a variety of excellent properties such as low density, strong toughness, piezoelectricity, and dielectric. As the saying goes, "if you bloom, butterflies will come", PVDF is regarded as a robot realization due to its excellent characteristicsLightweightwithHigh sensitivityofPreferred, just in timeHumanoid robotstuyere. However, humanoid robots are still in the fieldEarly stage of developmentDifficultBoost PVDF demand in the short term.
PVDF-based tactile sensors for humanoid robots Source**: Humanoid Robotics Alliance.
Moreover, according to the relevant data query, the application of PVDF in humanoid robots is likely to be used as a tactile sensor at the fingertip. From the perspective of the cost composition of humanoid robots, PVDF is speculatedThe proportion is not too high, which is undoubtedly also a basin of cold water.
Cost Composition of Humanoid Robots Data**: CMR Humanoid Robot Subcommittee.
From the perspective of supply and demand, the author expects that PVDF will once again encounter a large increase in downstream demand, which may be difficult; Moreover, even if it skyrockets again, PVDF is in the middle of the aggrieved midstream, and I'm afraid it's just another moment of splendor!
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.