Zhang LingThe second session of the 14th National People's Congress and the second meeting of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will open in Beijing on March 5 and March 4, 2024. As the 2024 National People's Congress and the National People's Congress are about to kick off, what hot topics do financial institutions pay attention to? What are your expectations for monetary policy and economic and social development this year? What investment opportunities will there be in the capital market? In this regard, the reporter of China ** newspaper interviewed six chief executives of public offering companies, they are Yao Yudong, deputy general manager and chief economist of Dacheng, Li Zhan, chief economist of China Merchants Research Department, Wei Fengchun, chief economist of Chuangjin Hexin, Chen Hongbin, chief economist of Pengyang, Yang Gang, chief economist and manager of Golden Eagle, and Chen Xianshun, chief equity strategy analyst of Bosera, to jointly carry out forward-looking. Let's look at the golden sentence:
Yao Yudong:In the process of re-establishing confidence in the capital market, the phased tightening of the financing end will help promote the long-term and healthy development of the A** market, realize the support of listed companies to limit the inferior, and promote the internal stability of the capital market. 
Li Zhan:Judging from the signal revealed by the local two sessions, this year's industry will continue to promote the transformation and upgrading of industries focusing on manufacturing, and the traditional, emerging and future industries will be developed simultaneously, and scientific and technological innovation will be the main line of industrial transformation and upgrading. 
Wei Fengchun:With the equity market, the decisive force of the next trend, structure and rhythm of the market shifts to the fundamentals, which include both the macro level and the industry level. 
Chen Hongbin:Looking forward to 2024, the internal and external dual circulation under the situation of no major changes in a century is still the theme to be grasped in the A** field. 
Yang Gang:Behind the continuous recovery of consumption, more comes from the improvement of residents' income expectations. 
Chen Xianshun:It is expected that this year's fiscal policy will moderately strengthen and improve quality and efficiency while continuing the steady tone, and give full play to the role of caring for economic growth. OneFocus on economic growth targets, fiscal and monetary policies, etcChina ** Daily: On the occasion of the two sessions, what are your expectations for this year's two sessions, and what will you focus on? Yao Yudong:Various policies and meetings have been intensively released and held before the two sessions this year, and the larger-than-expected RRR and interest rate cuts since the beginning of the year may mean that the loose monetary policy will still be a flexible tool to stabilize the economy and confidence; The first financial committee meeting held before the two sessions pointed out more directly that equipment renovation and trade-in of consumer goods will become a phased starting point for expanding domestic demand, and the determination to stabilize the economy and promote development is very clear. I think it is worth paying attention to the economic growth target, the promotion and use of macro policy combinations, and the industrial policy of scientific and technological innovation based on artificial intelligence and computing power. Chen Hongbin:At present, the high-quality development of China's economy still needs to maintain a certain growth rate as the foundation. China's economy is still in the stage of recovery and recovery, and it needs to pay attention to economic development targets such as GDP, employment, and inflation. At the same time, high-quality economic development should not only be quantitative but also qualitative, which is reflected in aspects such as industrial planning, green development, scientific and technological innovation, and safe development. Chen Xianshun:The growth target of the national economic growth rate, the target of the fiscal deficit ratio, and the deployment of key areas such as scientific and technological growth and the reform of central state-owned enterprises are all worth looking forward to. The key areas of industrial policy are worth paying attention to, especially the recent market transaction hotspots are concentrated in the fields of artificial intelligence, computing power, robotics, and the reform of central state-owned enterprises. Yang Gang:Focus on the new changes in macro policy setting and industrial policy deployment. Focusing on the deployment of expanding domestic demand, new trends in consumption and investment are also worth paying attention to. In terms of industrial policy, the construction of a modern industrial system and industrial transformation and upgrading should be one of the focuses of the deployment of economic work, and the first economic work conference in December 2023 has also made key arrangements in this regard. In addition, it is also worth paying attention to whether there will be new arrangements to further promote the reform of central state-owned enterprises and revitalize the capital market. Wei Fengchun:For the two sessions in 2024, the market expects to focus on how to better implement the key measures to expand domestic demand, establish first and then break down, and improve new quality productivity determined by the economic work conference at the end of 2023 at the critical moment when the economy enters a transition period and industrial replacement. Specific concerns include the expectation of GDP growth rate, fiscal deficit rate, price growth rate, etc. Li Zhan:First of all, the most important thing in the work report is the formulation of a series of economic indicators, including the national economic growth target, price target, unemployment rate target, etc. Second, the strength of fiscal and monetary policies also needs to be focused on. Thirdly, the annual National People's Congress and the National People's Congress will make important instructions on the development of the year in the fields of infrastructure investment, consumption, and opening up. Finally, it is also necessary to pay attention to the layout of the two sessions in terms of industry, such as the specific industries and fields focused on by the modern industrial system; arrangements for reforms in key areas, etc. IIEconomic growth is expected to remain solid in 2024China** News: The national GDP growth rate will reach 5 in 20232%。How do you expect economic growth in 2024? Chen Hongbin:The real GDP growth rate in 2023 will be 52%, looking forward to 2024, China's real economic growth is expected to reach about 5%. The main driving factors include the "three major projects" to make up for the shortcomings of people's livelihood, and fiscal expenditure to support equipment renovation and consumption. China is currently undergoing economic growth transformation, and high-quality development is the main theme of the times. Wei Fengchun:We expect to target economic growth of around 5% for 2024, while highlighting the power of new technological advancements and innovations in concrete growth contributions. Yao Yudong:I expect that China's economy will continue to grow well in 2024, and China's high-quality growth will be a confident change in the economic structure. Chen Xianshun:The national economic growth target is expected to reach 5% this year. In February, the LPR was lowered by more than expected, and the follow-up easing of monetary policy is still the general trend, and a series of policies such as stimulating domestic demand and encouraging the development of high-end manufacturing industries are continuously deployed, and the new economic growth momentum is expected to continue to grow. In addition, the inflation target for this year is expected to be set at around 2%, and the inflation level is expected to maintain a moderate warming trend throughout the year. Li Zhan:Considering macroeconomic pressures and endogenous resilience, we expect economic growth to remain solid in 2024. On the one hand, the economy has a demand for high growth in 2024. Second, the growth of real economic growth is still an inevitable requirement. The weighted economic growth target of the local two sessions is 53%, and the national growth target may be 5%, reflecting the attitude towards economic growth. IIIDevelop "new quality productivity".Artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing and other fields have attracted attentionChina ** Daily: Scientific and technological innovation is an important topic that must be discussed at the two sessions every year. In terms of scientific and technological innovation, what are your expectations and what are the key aspects that you expect to focus on? Chen Xianshun:The main development directions contained in the "new quality productivity" are worth looking forward to, mainly including artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing. In terms of artificial intelligence, recent technological breakthroughs overseas highlight the necessity of China's increased investment in the field of AI. In terms of high-end manufacturing, with the support of policies, the incremental space for domestic substitution of China's high-end manufacturing industry is broad, mainly in the fields of aerospace, robotics, chips and other high-tech manufacturing. Yao Yudong:I believe that this meeting will continue to deepen the concept of new quality productivity, and implement more precise and effective key policies in the fields of science and technology, innovation, and digitalization. Wei Fengchun:The development and growth of strategic emerging industries include: manned spaceflight, lunar and fire exploration, deep-sea and deep-earth exploration, supercomputers, satellite navigation, quantum information, nuclear power technology, large aircraft manufacturing, biomedicine, etc. Judging from the current technological trend in developed countries, computing power and artificial intelligence will be the key breakthroughs. Li Zhan:Judging from the signals revealed by the local two sessions, this year's industry will continue to promote the transformation and upgrading of industries focusing on manufacturing, and traditional, emerging and future industries will be developed simultaneously. Technological innovation is the main line of industrial transformation and upgrading. The strategic emerging industries mentioned more in this year's local work report mainly include new materials, new energy vehicles, electronic information, advanced equipment, modern medicine, aviation, etc.; Future industries include artificial intelligence, biomanufacturing, satellite applications, low-altitude economy, energy storage, etc., and these subdivisions may be the direction of scientific and technological innovation this year and in the medium and long term. FourthPromote consumption around emerging business formatsChina ** Daily: In recent years, in order to expand consumption, a number of policies have made concerted efforts to meet demand and release potential. What policy directions do you expect to take to expand consumption and demand, and what do you recommend? Chen Hongbin:From the perspective of consumption structure, in addition to catering consumption, the consumption of new formats and new models such as online consumption and green, intelligent and healthy consumption has also recovered, and bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and home appliances has maintained rapid growth, and these areas are also worth looking forward to in 2024. Yao Yudong:Considering the green and low-carbon consumption vigorously advocated in recent years, I think that the next policy direction will most likely encourage qualified areas to provide differentiated policy support for electronic products to the countryside, charging pile construction, and household appliances "trade-in" according to the energy efficiency level, and provide appropriate subsidies for energy efficiency and energy-saving products and equipment above the level of energy efficiency. It is expected that the current round of "trade-in" of consumer goods may be driven by standards such as energy consumption and emissions, while stabilizing and expanding household consumption, and promoting the green transformation of the economy. Yang Gang:The expansion of consumption policies may focus on supporting bulk consumption, inbound consumption, and supporting emerging consumption formats such as digital health and cultural tourism. In terms of policy recommendations, we believe that behind the continuous recovery of consumption, more comes from the improvement of residents' income expectations. Chen Xianshun:Combined with the fact that the degree of repair of service-oriented consumption is greater than that of commodity consumption during the Spring Festival, from the perspective of residents, it is expected that new consumption such as cultural tourism and domestic products, as well as traditional consumption such as home appliances and automobiles will be the key areas of policy efforts; From the perspective of enterprises, it is recommended to pay attention to large-scale equipment renewal, and there may be policy tools such as special re-lending for equipment renewal and new mechanisms for social capital cooperation in the future. Wei Fengchun:The focus of expanding consumption and increasing demand is to stabilize expectations, especially policy expectations, so that consumers' jobs and incomes can also be stabilized. Second, lowering interest rates and increasing subsidies are good measures to increase consumer income and demand. FiveFiscal policy may be moderately strengthened, quality and efficiency improvedChina ** Daily: Fiscal policy has always been the core "grasp" of macroeconomic policy, in terms of macroeconomic policy adjustment, how do you think this year's fiscal policy should be forced? Yao Yudong:The overall tone of fiscal policy this year may be more focused on "force", and it is expected that the fiscal policy will be more active. In the fourth quarter of last year, the Ministry of Finance issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, which I believe is the beginning of the transformation of the Ministry of Finance from prudent to positive. Fiscal policy, as the core "grasp" of macroeconomic policy, has tremendous room to play this year. It is expected that this year, a combination of fiscal policies will be formed, with first-class finance as the mainstay and local finance as the supplement, and efficient and active fiscal policies will help China's high-quality economic growth this year. Wei Fengchun:Finance should be at the core of the current macroeconomic policy, so as to coordinate the overall policy implementation. First of all, we should make efforts in risk prevention and control to ensure that regional risks do not evolve into systemic risks, and the risks of real estate and urban investment, as well as small and medium-sized banks, cannot be relaxed. Second, it is necessary to exert efforts in economic expansion, increase the deficit ratio, and ensure the continuous increase in aggregate economic demand. Third, it is necessary to increase subsidies in the optimization of the industrial structure and the upgrading of consumption, so as to adapt to the improvement of new quality productivity. Chen Xianshun:It is expected that this year's fiscal policy will moderately strengthen, improve quality and efficiency while continuing the steady tone, and give full play to the role of caring for economic growth, and the main focus may be the expansion of the scope of special bonds and the reform of the local fiscal and taxation system. In terms of the general public budget, it is expected that the deficit ratio in 2024 may be 3% or higher, and at the same time, it is likely to continue to add ultra-long-term special government bonds to cope with the risk of local debt and the crowding out of local fiscal expenditure. In terms of local special bonds, it is foreseeable that under the overall consideration of stable growth and risk prevention, the scale of new special bonds may continue to expand, giving full play to the multiplier effect of ** expenditure. In addition, the reform of central and local financial rights may also be put on the agenda. Yang Gang:In order to cope with the contraction impact of "deleveraging" in some places, the local finances of strong provinces and large provinces need to play a more important and key role in a timely manner. In terms of investment areas, in addition to medium- and long-term major engineering projects, local small and medium-sized projects also need to be invested to fill the gaps, so as to help promote local employment; In addition to the infrastructure sector, in order to cope with the continued greater pressure on real estate sales and investment, fiscal funds can also be invested in relevant directions; Targeted fiscal policies need to be more effective in boosting real consumption. SixThere is still some room for monetary easingChina ** Daily: In terms of monetary policy, the central bank has cut the reserve requirement ratio since the beginning of this year, and the LPR has cut interest rates sharply. Is there room for downward adjustment? Li Kan:Overall, there is still some room for monetary policy adjustment during the year, but the probability of a larger-than-expected interest rate cut is low. First, the need for economic growth, this year's measures to stabilize real estate, debt and other measures require the financial system to continue to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, before the real estate and residents are expected to stabilize, the financing cost is still necessary to fall. Second, the current real interest rate is in a relatively high range in China's history and in the international comparison, and the high real interest rate will cause investment and consumption to contract, which is not conducive to economic recovery. If real interest rates are to be reversed, nominal interest rates will need to continue to fall; Third, the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in the second half of the year, and the constraints on interest rate cuts in China are expected to weaken, which will open up policy space. Yao Yudong:This year's monetary policy operation may still be based on aggregate volume, supplemented by structure, and interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are still necessary. We are pleased to see that the general tone of monetary policy has not changed, and it is expected that there may still be RRR and interest rate cuts this year, and the prudent monetary policy orientation remains firm. Wei Fengchun:Against the backdrop of the Fed's delay in cutting interest rates, the convection of liquidity between China and the United States, and the strategic significance of foreign exchange stability, the central bank has relatively little room to cut interest rates in 2024. In terms of resolving real estate risks and improving consumption capacity, the central bank will do more policy operations at the long-end rather than at the short-end end. Monetary policy will continue to be structural, the adjustment of liquidity will take precedence over the adjustment of prices, and external stability will continue to be the primary consideration of policy. Chen Hongbin:We believe that there is still room for monetary policy to continue to operate, and this year, the relevant departments will guide the reasonable growth of credit, balance the supply, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and the funding rate is expected to remain stable. At the same time, we will continue to keep the scale of social financing and the amount of money in line with the expected targets of economic growth and the level of social financing. In terms of promoting structural adjustment, this year's monetary policy may strengthen policy coordination and cooperation, effectively support the promotion of consumption, stabilize investment, expand domestic demand, and keep prices at a reasonable level. SevenAll parties worked together to boost market confidenceChina ** News: Since October 2023, the ** Financial Work Conference, Economic Work Conference, National Standing Meeting, etc. have mentioned the capital market many times. What are your policy suggestions for the recovery of confidence and healthy development of the capital market? Li Kan:In terms of stabilizing the market and stabilizing confidence, the first is to strengthen the consistency of policy orientations of various industries, prevent and resolve real estate risks, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and stabilize market expectations. Second, we can increase efforts to promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, and improve the investment operation system of social security, insurance funds, and annuities; The third is to improve the listing and delisting system, optimize the institutional arrangements for refinancing, mergers and acquisitions, and improve the allocation efficiency of the capital market. Wei Fengchun:It is suggested to adapt to the major changes in the positioning of the capital market, incorporate the failure of the capital market into the framework of systemic financial risk control, and at the same time regard the wealth effect of the capital market as a policy highland for expanding demand, stimulating economic growth, and adjusting the industrial structure. The specific measures are to strengthen the construction of rule of law, marketization and specialization, and give full play to the three public principles of transactions. Chen Xianshun:In terms of policy suggestions, first, appropriately relax the restrictions on cancel-off repurchases, encourage listed companies to carry out deregistration repurchases, and increase the review and supervision of buybacks for the purpose of equity incentives and employee stock ownership. Second, guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market and improve the pricing power of domestic capital. It is suggested that domestic capital such as central state-owned enterprise funds and insurance funds should be further strengthened to form a joint force to stabilize the market and expectations. Yang Gang:In terms of system construction, for IPO listings, it is recommended to increase the quality control of listed companies and significantly increase the penalties for intermediaries for violations; In terms of rewarding investors, it is recommended to more actively encourage and positively guide listed companies to increase dividends, and encourage market value management through repurchase and cancellation; It is recommended to further increase the punishment for shareholders' violations and disguised behaviors. At the same time, in the design of the system, it can be considered to increase the constraints on the behavior of different types of shareholders, or link the scale of the enterprise with the business performance. Chen Hongbin:It is necessary to adhere to the investor-oriented approach and bring together all parties to boost market confidence. It is recommended to strictly control IPO access, strengthen the supervision of the whole process of listed companies, clear out unqualified listed companies, fundamentally improve the quality of listed companies, and increase investment returns. Adhere to the investor-oriented concept, standardize all kinds of trading behaviors, and improve the fairness of the system. Develop and expand professional investment forces to promote more medium and long-term funds into the market. Adhere to the direction of marketization and rule of law, unswervingly deepen the reform of the capital market, expand institutional opening-up, and consolidate the institutional foundation for the high-quality development of the capital market. Further increase the intensity of punishment for all kinds of illegal and criminal acts. Eight**Or in the bottoming up stageChina Daily: What do you think about the market outlook? What are the structural institutions to look forward to? Li Kan:After experiencing the early adjustment, the post-holiday ** may be in the stage of bottoming out. In the medium term, it is still necessary to pay attention to the recovery of the real economy and the improvement of market risk appetite. In terms of industries, there may be opportunities for themes such as "new quality productivity", a modern industrial system, and the gradual release of central state-owned enterprises due to favorable policies. Wei Fengchun:With the equity market, the decisive force of the next trend, structure and rhythm of the market shifts to the fundamentals, which include both the macro level and the industry level. Broadly speaking, investors need to lay out the leading industries after real estate, which will connect technology, consumption, finance, and cycles, not just technology. The new quality productivity in the future is not only science and technology, but also popularization, rare metals, intelligence, new energy, quality consumption, environmental protection and other comprehensive characteristics. Chen Xianshun:**The bottom has been proven, and we remain optimistic about the follow-up**. Structurally, it is recommended to pay attention to the three main lines of scientific and technological growth, dividends, and equipment renewal. First, the growth direction of science and technology represented by the AI industry chain and high-end manufacturing, catalyzed by policy support and the upward trend of the industry, the incremental space brought by the development of related industries is still broad. The second is the direction of dividends, in the downward trend of long-term interest rates, high-dividend assets have a higher cost performance. The third is to benefit from the steady growth policy of equipment renewal and consumer goods direction, including automobiles, food and beverage, medicine, etc. Yang Gang:In the future, if the blockbuster policy can bring about a large change in economic expectations, the theme** may significantly switch to the fundamental-driven direction, and the market recovery will be more sustainable. In terms of the current structural opportunity selection, robots, satellite Internet, medicine, military industry, electronics, etc., which have not yet been repaired to the water level at the beginning of the year, may still have some room for repair. High-dividend assets also still have allocation value. In addition, the continuous promotion of the market value management of central state-owned enterprises and the continuous improvement of the expected dividend level this year will also enhance the investment attractiveness of relevant directions. Chen Hongbin:Looking forward to 2024, the internal and external dual circulation under the situation of no major changes in a century is still the theme to be grasped in the A** field. From the perspective of the external environment, our country has formed a huge market and strong industrial manufacturing capacity, coupled with scientific and technological innovation to lead the development, in fact, it has the birth of great global companies and subdivided industry leaders of high-quality soil. From the perspective of the internal environment, we have a more optimistic view on expanding domestic demand in 2024, and the competitive landscape of many industries is expected to gradually improve, and corporate earnings will improve, bringing opportunities to investors. Editor: Xiaomo Review: Xu Wen