Project Sword
Recently, India announced the launch of a new base on one of India's closest islands to the Maldives. Although India claims that the move is to protect the so-called shipping lanes in the region, it is clear that it is heading for the Maldives in terms of time and geography.
Prior to this, the Maldives and India had reached an agreement on the withdrawal of troops, which would also be to withdraw some of the troops first, and then withdraw all the rest within two months. The March 10 date, when the first evacuations were made, was only a few days apart from March 6, when India launched its new base.
India's high-profile announcement of the launch of a new base at this time is quite a warning to the Maldives. There should be at least two of the things that India wants to achieve, directly or indirectly, through this.
First of all, India is unhappy with the foreign policy pursued by the Maldives** Muiz. India believes that the Maldives is alienating India because of China. In India's eyes, the Maldives' demand for India's withdrawal of troops out of sovereignty considerations was also influenced by its "pro-China and anti-Indian" policy. So the first thing India wants to achieve is likely to be to threaten the Maldives that it must distance itself from China.
Secondly, due to the proximity of time, it is difficult to say that there is no connection between the launch of the new base and the withdrawal of Indian troops from the Maldives. In terms of time, even if India cannot change its plan to evacuate the first batch of military personnel on March 10, it is now more than two months away from May 10, when India's second batch of military personnel will be evacuated. Therefore, we speculate that India also wants to use such military deterrence to force the Maldives to make some concessions on the issue of troop withdrawal.
In fact, as early as the early stage of negotiations with the Maldives, India actually reserved a lot of room for itself to operate. According to the report released by the Indian side, India will only evacuate people, but the radar stations and *** that have been aided to the Maldives will not be taken away. So after the withdrawal is completed, India will "lend a helping hand" to the Maldives, that is, send so-called civilian personnel to the Maldives to help the country continue to use these equipment.
In other words, as long as India sends some retired soldiers, or simply sends active military personnel to the Maldives in the guise of non-military personnel, the Indian army is equivalent to relying on the Maldives in a different form.
However, with Mouiz's previous tough attitude towards India, it is estimated that India's tactics will be difficult to operate. India has used military deterrence in order for the Maldives to accept such conditions.
As for why India has not directly refused to withdraw its troops, the main reason is that the current regional countries are already generally dissatisfied with India. If India uses too strong a stance against the Maldives, it is likely that countries that have long been oppressed by India, including Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, will come out against India in the same way as the Maldives.
Whatever India does, however, the Maldives is unlikely to compromise. The Maldives is a sovereign state, and the country will fully consider its national interests in its foreign policy, which Mouiz has made clear long ago.
Sure enough, India's move did not have any effect, and Muiz remained stubborn. Muiz issued a more direct warning after India launched the new base, saying that the withdrawal of all Indian military personnel by May 10 was not negotiable. Moreover, Muiz also blocked the road, stating that after the withdrawal of Indian troops, there would be no Indian troops stationed in any form in the country. The implication is that the Maldives will not consider India's so-called civilian presence at all. To put it more bluntly, India is not going to leave.
Of course, according to rational analysis, the Maldives dares to be tough with India at this time, in addition to Muiz's firm pursuit of the Maldives' independence and the priority of its own interests, there are actually some objective factors, such as receiving a "big gift" from China.
On the day of Mouiz's strong warning to India, the Maldives announced on social networks that the country and China had discussed expanding military cooperation and signed an agreement on military assistance. Although I was noncommittal in my response, spokesperson Mao Ning stressed that normal cooperation between China and Malaysia will not be directed against any third party and will not be interfered with by any third party.
We can understand that China's military assistance does not mean that it wants to provide the Maldives with some offensive ** against whom. China and Maldives are comprehensive strategic cooperative partners, and there is no problem in cooperating with Maldives in areas such as defense and security. In the face of China's unconditional support on these issues, the Maldives is naturally more emboldened to oppose hegemony.
All in all, one of the most important reasons why India has not been able to handle its relations with the Maldives and other countries in the region is that India does not respect the sovereignty of these countries. If India does not learn from the Maldives' so-called "alienation from India", it is unlikely that more countries in the region will choose to part ways with India in the future.