Why don't Western countries dare to embezzle Russia's frozen 300 billion assets? 》
1. Economic sanctions and counter-sanctions between Western countries and Russia?
1. The Russian Satellite News Agency said on December 22, 2023 that since Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine, the European Union and the G7 have frozen nearly half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, amounting to about 300 billion euros, of which about 200 billion euros are in the European Union, mainly in the Belgian EuroClear account, which is one of the largest clearing and settlement systems in the world.
In April, Putin signed a decree entitled "On the Temporary Management System for Specific Assets". According to the document, Russia will implement a temporary management system for the assets of persons from "unfriendly countries" in order to deal with the confiscation or restriction of assets outside Russia. This time, Putin signed the ** order, which made it clear in the form of law that Russia can counter the West (financial freeze) through "temporary management".
In May, Russian State Duma Speaker Volodin said that in order to counter the West's asset freeze on Russia, the Russian Central Bank also froze $500 billion in foreign investors' assets.
2. Why don't Western countries dare to embezzle Russia's frozen assets?
1. EU countries are afraid of a military strike by Russia.
Because the EU has no absolute superiority over Russia in terms of military strength, this determines that the EU does not dare to freeze Russian assets.
If the EU freezes Russia's assets, then this is an open robbery, so Russia has the right to defend itself, and Russia has the right to take any retaliatory measures against EU countries, including military strikes against any EU country.
Russia's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on January 11, 2024 that if the United States and the West confiscate Russia's overseas assets, it will lead to serious consequences. No one knows what this serious consequence is? This could range from freezing the assets of Western countries in Russia to launching a military strike against the European Union.
Throughout the history of world wars, we find that the essence of war is to obtain more resources and economic benefits, if a war can bring huge economic benefits, any country has a strong urge to risk starting a war! If the EU embezzles Russia's $300 billion in assets, it will be a huge loss of economic benefits for Russia, and it will definitely have a strong incentive and sufficient reasons to launch a war against the EU!
2. The freezing of Russia's sovereign assets, which the West lacks the support of international law.
There is no right under international law for a State to seize the assets of another State, except for belligerents.
A State's State-owned assets enjoy immunity under existing international law and international relations, and the United Nations Rules on the Immunity of State Sovereignty from Legal Process clearly state that "the property of a State is not normally subject to seizure or confiscation within the jurisdiction of another State".
Now the West is freezing Russian assets, which is only morally plausible. Because when the United States and NATO bombed Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Yugoslavia and other countries, why did the United Nations not freeze the assets of the European Union and the United States?
3. It will seriously damage the hegemony of the euro and the hegemony of the dollar.
The euro and euro hegemony are an important cornerstone for EU countries to achieve reunification, and once the EU freefreezes and embezzles foreign assets at will, it will seriously damage the reputation of the euro and the EU's investment environment, triggering capital outflows at least and attacking the euro hegemony at worst. Once the euro loses its status as a world currency, the economies of the EU countries will inevitably be seriously affected.
The United States is accustomed to taking advantage of the dollar's position as a world currency and often imposes economic or financial sanctions on countries large and small, which has aroused the dissatisfaction of many countries with the hegemony of the dollar. If the United States embezzles $300 billion in Russian assets, the credibility of the dollar and the United States will be completely lost.
4. It will seriously damage the economic interests of European companies in Russia.
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Institute of Russian, Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Russia reciprocally seized the financial assets of Western investors in Russia, about 500 billion, so the EU should also consider that if it rudely confiscates or transfers assets, it may trigger a series of retaliations from Russia, which will also trigger the loss of the entire Western investor's investment in Russia, so they are also cautiously dealing with this problem." ”
Andrei Klimov, deputy chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation, said that if the United States confiscates Russian assets, it will threaten the American financial system. "The United States is slowing down on this, not because they sympathize with us, but because they realize that the 'domino effect' may work, and that all those who were once dependent on the dollar will quickly flee from it," he argued. ”
According to the German "Die Welt", the European Commission recently submitted an unknown document, in which it said that the EU authorities are obliged to return to Russia the 300 billion euros of reserves of the Russian Central Bank that were frozen in the EU after the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, the documents indicate that Russia's frozen assets are inviolable and cannot be used for other purposes, including helping Ukraine rebuild, and need to be returned to Russia after the end of the war.
5. Western countries, including the United States, are afraid of full-scale retaliation from Russia.
Because Russia has the world's largest military strength and abundant resources, this determines that its country's destructive power in the world's politics and economy will be very strong.
If the United States freezes Russia's $300 billion in assets, then Russia may comprehensively promote global "de-dollarization" and "de-euroization", which will cause economic losses to the United States far more than $300 billion.
If the United States freezes Russia's $300 billion in assets, Russia can create endless trouble for the United States and Europe on the world's freight lanes, and it will also cause the United States to suffer heavy losses.
If the United States freezes Russia's $300 billion in assets, Russia can also weaken the influence of the dollar and American companies in world politics and the world, which will also cause huge losses to the United States.
If the West sets a precedent for the world by misappropriating Russia's $300 billion in assets, then countries in the world, including China, Russia, Brazil, and other countries, will be able to reasonably and legally freeze the assets of the United States and EU countries, which will obviously be unfavorable to the Western powers.