On February 26, the Hungarian parliament approved Sweden's accession to NATO, which means that after several procedures, Sweden will officially become the 32nd member of NATO. With the successive "accession" of Finland and Sweden, the Baltic countries are all NATO countries except for Russia, and some West** therefore call the Baltic Sea "NATO Lake". Some commentators say that the formation of the "NATO Lake" has not only completely changed the security architecture in the Baltic Sea region, unprecedentedly compressed Russia's strategic space, but also expanded the scope of Russian-European confrontation to Northern Europe, and Moscow may fall into a passive position in the Arctic region. However, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko previously said that Russia has sufficient military strength to ensure that the Baltic Sea will not become "NATO's".
The result will be a joint air defense and integrated missile system "
This means that all the countries bordering the Baltic Sea, with the exception of Russia, became part of the US-led military alliance. According to Agence France-Presse on February 26, the Hungarian parliament approved Sweden's accession to NATO on the same day, which "added the last piece of the puzzle to the strategically valuable Baltic Sea Alliance." Many Western** believe that with Sweden's accession to NATO, the Baltic Sea will become a "NATO lake".
The Baltic Sea, which straddles 53 degrees north latitude to 66 degrees north latitude and 10 degrees east longitude to 30 degrees east longitude, is an intercontinental sea between Central and Eastern Europe and Northern Europe, as well as a continental margin of the Atlantic Ocean, with coastal countries including Denmark, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Russia, Finland, and Sweden. Among them, Denmark is a founding member of NATO, the former Federal Republic of Germany joined NATO in 1955, Poland joined NATO in 1999, the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) joined NATO in 2004, and Finland joined the military alliance in 2023. Finland's land border with Russia is more than 1,300 km. Before the country's accession, the land border between NATO countries and Russia was about 1,215 kilometers long.
Once these two countries (Sweden and Finland) join, the Baltic Sea will become a 'NATO lake', surrounded by eight member states, which will eventually form a joint air defense and integrated missile system. BBC defence correspondent Gardner previously said. The formation of the "Lake of NATO" significantly strengthened the military influence of this military alliance in the Baltic region.
According to the New York Times, the American "Political News Network" and other reports, Sweden has an advanced high-tech defense industry that can make excellent fighter jets, frigates and submarines. In addition, the country's strength lies in its navy, which is tailor-made for the Baltic Sea, and its air force is armed with self-developed JAS-39 "Gripen" fighters, designed to counter Russian attacks. Sweden has begun the development and construction of new modern submarines and large frigates for air defense.
According to foreign media analysis, Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO means that they will carry out more information sharing and military integration with other NATO countries and carry out more joint exercises. Salonios Pasternak, chief researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, gave the example of a Finnish fighter flying near the Russian border that could collect data and communicate with the Norwegians, who could ask the Finnish fighter to provide more intelligence or ask the fighter to fly somewhere else, "before [Finland] joined NATO, it was technically possible to do this, but politically, it was not possible to do so."
Former NATO Assistant Secretary General Grande previously said that Sweden and Finland have collaborated with NATO, operating NATO-standard ** systems and participating in NATO exercises, "which is one of the reasons why they were able to join NATO so quickly." More than 20,000 military personnel from 13 countries took part in the 12-day Nordic Response 2024 exercise in Finland, Norway and Sweden starting March 4 this year. Grande also said that Sweden and Finland can also help NATO develop 5G technology and build 5G-related infrastructure. Finland's Nokia, Sweden's Ericsson and China's Huawei dominate the 5G civilian market.
The blockade of the Baltic Sea, as well as the monitoring of the Arctic region, will be much less difficult
* And experts generally believe that the formation of the "NATO lake", the greater significance of which lies at the geostrategic level. Zhao Long, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Global Governance at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, told the Global Times that Sweden and Finland abandoned the "Nordic model" oriented by balanced neutrality and joined NATO, indicating that the European security architecture based on the dual pillars of "strategic deterrence" and "mutual security assurances" and including Russia no longer exists.
The UAE's "The National" newspaper commented that Sweden's accession to NATO will bring fundamental changes to the security architecture in the Baltic region. According to the American "Political News Network" and others, with Sweden's accession to NATO, the military alliance will strengthen its control over the Baltic Sea. Sweden not only has a long coastline, but also the largest island in the Baltic Sea, Gotland, which is located in the center of the Baltic Sea and controls not only the route to the Gulf of Finland (at the end of which is St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia), but also the sea route to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad Oblast, where the headquarters of the Russian Baltic Fleet is located. Darscher, director of research at the Swedish Institute for Defense Studies, said Sweden's accession to NATO "will make [NATO's] defense and deterrence much easier" and that blocking the Baltic Sea to restrain Russian surface ships and monitoring the Arctic region will be much easier.
According to the American newspaper Defense Post, the importance of the Baltic Sea is also related to its proximity to the Arctic. Due to its untapped mineral resources, the Arctic region is becoming increasingly strategically important. According to the American "Political News Network", the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO means that NATO will expand its presence in the Arctic region, which is becoming increasingly strategic for Russia and other countries.
Xu Ruojie, an assistant researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that the formation of the "NATO lake" has a wide range of impacts, including the completion of the northern puzzle of geopolitical encirclement of Russia by the United States and Western countries, and Moscow is facing greater pressure to check and balance, and its strategic space has been unprecedentedly compressed, or it will fall into passivity in the Arctic region. In addition, the scope of the confrontation between Russia and Europe has been expanded to northern Europe, and Finland and Sweden's "accession" is the latest move by NATO to exert maximum pressure on Russia, and the European security order is facing greater risks.
There is an opinion that after the formation of the "NATO lake", the strategic pressure faced by the three Baltic countries will be relatively eased, and the Nordic countries will share part of the geopolitical pressure from Russia. According to Agence France-Presse, Sweden's accession to NATO has been a relief to the three Baltic states, which have long been regarded as NATO's Achilles heel. If these three countries are attacked, Sweden, because of its geographical advantage, will facilitate NATO's delivery of troops to these three countries.
Russia will deploy more in the new military districts**.
Since the end of the Cold War, the Russian Navy has been chronically underfunded. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a U.S. think tank, posted on its official website in December last year detailing Russia's military presence in the Baltic region. At the height of the Cold War, the Soviet Baltic Fleet had an estimated 90 to 130 submarines, and now the Russian Baltic Fleet has only one diesel-electric attack submarine, the article says. In addition, Moscow's traditional offensive naval forces in the Baltic include only 6 major surface warships (including 5 missile destroyers and 1 missile frigate, small patrol ships and littoral combat ships, as well as 13 amphibious landing craft. "Russia's current 'assets' combined, are not enough to constitute a dominant naval force in the Baltic Sea, nor to break through the Danish Strait to strike and destroy NATO supply lines across the North Atlantic. The article reads.
However, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the country's Deputy Foreign Minister Grushko previously said that Russia has enough military strength to guarantee that the Baltic Sea will not become "NATO". RIA Novosti reported that on March 2, 2024, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at a *** meeting in Antalya, Turkey, that in response to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, Russia will deploy more ** in the newly built Moscow Military District and Leningrad Military District, and we have made a decision to form the Moscow Military District and the Leningrad Military District, where more ** will be deployed. This will be enough to deal with possible threats on the territory of Finland and Sweden".
According to Russia's Red Star TV report, Russian military expert Matvichuk said that Russia is taking a series of necessary measures to maintain its own security, such as the previous decision to form a new combined army of all arms and make it part of the Northern Fleet to defend Russia's northern borders with Finland and Norway, and Russia's military deployment in Kaliningrad Oblast is also strengthening.
According to a report by the US Defense Post last year, Russia plans to deploy ships carrying "Caliber" cruise missiles near the "NATO lake." In response to NATO's expansion in the region, Russia plans to deploy missile ships in a lake near the Baltic Sea. The Russian newspaper Izvestia, citing informed sources, said that a study has shown that it is feasible to deploy and carry out combat missions in Lake Ladoga. Lake Ladoga is located in northwestern Russia, its northern shore is less than 50 kilometers from the Finnish border, and the Baltic Sea is about 650 to 700 kilometers away from the lake. Russia is considering the deployment of Karakurt-class frigates and M-class frigates to Lake Ladoga, but a final decision has not yet been made.
According to Agence France-Presse, Russia also has a weapon to break through the "NATO lake", which is its Kaliningrad Oblast, an enclave between Poland and Lithuania. In recent years, Moscow has turned the oblast into one of the most militarized regions in all of Europe, and has "deployed nuclear missiles" there, the report said. Denis, a professor at the U.S. Army Military Academy, said that Russia's military presence in Kaliningrad Oblast is not as large as it was during the Soviet era, but it has maintained its investment in underwater forces and still has the ability to launch a small landing war or threaten NATO supply lines. "In terms of artillery, indirect firepower and nuclear **, they (Russia) surpass NATO countries in the region in terms of firepower and range," Denis said. ”
In addition, the Suwałki corridor will also become a strategic artery for Russia to counter NATO in the Baltic region. The corridor is a strip of about 96 kilometers along the border between Poland and Lithuania, nestled between the Kaliningrad region of Russia and the Grodno region of Belarus, and is the only land link between NATO and the three Baltic states. Some analysts said that in the event of a war between NATO and Russia in the Baltic Sea, Moscow may open up the Suwałki corridor through Belarus and encircle the three Baltic countries from land.
The Carnegie International Peace Council published an article arguing that Russia can counterbalance NATO in the Baltic Sea by launching small amphibious assaults to seize strategically important islands, launching covert or overt hybrid attacks from the sea, and special operations. The article also mentions that Russia retains the ability to participate in undersea operations, such as cutting communication lines between the three Baltic states and other countries in the region. In addition, the article also raises the problems of NATO countries in the Baltic Sea region, including the fact that the number of NATO troops and the total tonnage of ships in this area are still limited, and the lack of sufficient coastal artillery.
The confrontation is more intense, and the security situation in Europe is more unstable.
After the Hungarian parliament voted in favor of Sweden's accession to NATO on February 26, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Sweden's membership "makes NATO stronger, Sweden safer, and all of us safer." However, Russian military expert Konovalov believes that the successive accession of Finland and Sweden has led to an even more intense confrontation between NATO and Russia, and the risk of a direct war between the two sides has increased significantly. As a result, Finland and Sweden have been dragged to the forefront of confrontation, and the security situation in Europe has become even more unstable.
Xu Ruojie commented that Stoltenberg's words only represent NATO's wishful thinking, and a strong military does not necessarily guarantee security. He said that Finland and Sweden will become members of NATO, and it will be European countries that will suffer the most, and they will become more insecure. Compared with the geographical "detachment" of the United States (separated from Europe by the Atlantic, far from the conflict between NATO and Russia), the fact that European countries cannot change is the geographical relationship with Russia, once the future Ukraine crisis ends, or the United States reduces its investment in Europe, then the all-round security dilemma with Russia will be a long-term problem that Europe has to face.
Although some Westerners are advocating the influence of the "NATO lake", there are also those who say that NATO should not be complacent because of this. The New York Times also raised the question that the United States ** would have a significant impact on NATO's functioning. If Trump is elected this year, it will cast serious doubt on America's commitment to defending NATO allies.