Early in the morning, the day after the primary Super Tuesday, Haley announced his withdrawal from his hometown of South Carolina. This episode quickly scans the reactions of all parties, looks at the development of the election, is authentic, presents it on the spot, and finally takes a closer look at Trump's troubled election luck.
There is a lot of content, all dry goods, a large amount of compilation, and it is too late to add **, the topic of the Supreme Court's latest decision involving Trump, which was originally scheduled to be broadcast yesterday, has been postponed again, let's see tomorrow. Important writing projects had to be put on hold, after all, Super Tuesday was a big day, and even two astronauts voted from the International Space Station! Jasmin Moghbeli and Loral O'Hara also posted herself**.
Then it was Wednesday.
Early the next morning
Early Wednesday morning, Haley spoke and told the people of the United States that he wanted to be heard by the people of the United States. I did it, and I have no regrets, and I am grateful for the support of the people of the country and the nurturing of the United States. Even if he doesn't run anymore, he still won't stop speaking out for his beliefs.
Super Tuesday night before the vote count, she only beat Vermont alone, gradually losing the way to overtake. Republican primaries in most states lock in votes and the number of seats, making it difficult for her to play: Winner takes all, and only Republicans are allowed to vote in primaries. Spectators and allies began to shout one after another, urging them to withdraw from the election, hoping to endorse Trump.
Click**: News Primaries Super Tuesday Chuan Bai Win Separately What does it mean? -2024**19 She did not endorse Trump, saying: I have always been a conservative Republican, but in this matter, it is worth listening to Mrs. Thatcher's words, "Don't follow the trend, you have to have your own opinions." "Now, Trump needs to win back voters who oppose him inside and outside his own party, and hope he does that," and "the best politics is to attract people to the cause, not to drive them away, and our conservative cause desperately needs people."
Haley's campaign headquarters also issued a statement urging Republicans to unite, especially to respect voters in Haley's huge base. The center of gravity is white-collar workers with education in the suburbs, many of whom are moderate voters who are shocked by Trump's crime and chaos.
Haley congratulated Trump and said, "Good luck to him, I wish him good luck when he is the **". Good luck, don't endorse it, carefully consider the words, obviously have a plan rather than a whim. It's very Hailey, it's too Hailey.
Biden congratulated Haley on his election performance and great courage in running for **, "Few people in the Republican Party today dare to reveal Trump's true face." Haley did reveal Trump's true face: everywhere he went, he reversed black and white without distinguishing between right and wrong, and knelt down to worship Emperor Pu J.
Biden summoned Haley voters: "Trump rejects Haley supporters, I said it bluntly, I welcome you." Although there are differences of opinion on some aspects, everyone is completely unanimous in defending the United States, respecting each other, defending NATO, and fighting against foreign enemies." The Kuomintang, the Republicans, and the Independent voters each have their own opinions and beliefs, which is very good and beautiful. But I know that everyone loves America, that's why they are united."
Trump did say ruthlessly that Haley was forbidden to sponsor supporters to join, don't, don't accept. At least in terms of foreign policy, Biden and Haley are basically exactly the same, the polar opposite of Trump, which is especially a bright spot for educated Haley voters.
Haley withdrew from the election, making the first female ** in the United States dream again. To be fair, the quality of the two female candidates, Hillary and Nikki, is significantly much higher than the average for male candidates, and sooner or later there will be a female ** in the White House. This year, how can there be her? Does Haley represent the Republican Party's past? Or the future of the United States?
Haley's Way
Haley has brought many bright colors to the Federation, she is the youngest governor, a military partner, a classic Reagan Republican conservative leader, Thatcher, Hillary Clinton and other powerful female British heirs, and an outstanding, shrewd, and young second-generation South Asian immigrant.
She said, "Too many Chinese people don't like the Republican Party's high debts, don't like the Republican Party to abandon their allies, and don't like the Republican Party to become Trump's one-man party", "I just want to speak up for them and work hard, knowing that I can't take their Republican votes for granted, let alone force them to either abandon their votes or vote back", "If that happens, the Republican Party will definitely not win."
Universally** she will continue to influence moderate voters, especially the original mainstream Reagan Republicans, including the Reagan Blue vote. Haley's relationship with Trump has been stumbling, and she has always been anti-Trump in the 2016 primary, especially opposing Trump's rude personal attacks, advocating respect, dignity, and decency, knowing that Trump was nominated. After accepting Trump's invitation to serve as ambassador to the United Nations, she still maintained her independence, conscientiously befriending the party's financiers, and not offending the basic base of the Sichuan party.
In her entire ** career, women, as the weak gender in the Republican Party, have been completely turned into advantages by her, constantly quoting Thatcher: If you want to be able to speak, you can find a man, but if you want to get things done, find a woman. "They always want to dominate and bully us women, I don't eat that, and the high heels kick back is even more ruthless", "I can get to where I am today, not because I am lucky, but because I am more aggressive and hardworking than all those buddies".
In 2024**, she is the first candidate to challenge Trump, knowing that Trump has a high-pressure monopoly on the Republican Party, and she also knows that Trump is hard, she is not afraid of Qiangchuan, and she doesn't care about being a spare tire, giving the Republican Party another future, which is completely different from the Sichuan Party. She speculated and invested, seeing that Trump's maga was not a long-term solution, that Reaganism would return sooner or later, and that the Republican Party needed a new leader.
Click**: Light of South Asia B-Hayley: Running for Indian Super Trump, Pragmatic Military Families Have Never Lost -2024**9b She broke the Republican ceiling again, not only becoming the first **candidate, but also the first to win the DC and Vermont primaries. After losing to his hometown of South Carolina, he vowed to keep fighting until Super Tuesday. "I'm a woman of my word," she said. She was. She cashed in. You can dislike her ideas and tactics, but it's hard to question her responsibility.
Candidates who lose their hometown usually withdraw from the election quickly, and it is rare for her to persist for so long.
Haley withdrew from the race, basically locking in Trump's nomination. Haley broke his promise and did not endorse it. Although she led the anti-Sichuan Republicans to Trump is no longer a threat and a challenge, it is still a roadblock and a source of pressure. It remains to be seen whether she will finally endorse Trump. But the important question is, will Trump finally be able to do it?
The winner asks for money
Haley's withdrawal from the election ended the Republican Party's last challenge to Trump, who was immediately bullish.
Several types of Republican candidates have failed to shake the vast Trump base: Desan's authentic and corrective Trumpism, Pence's opportunism in his replacement of Trump, and Haley's anti-Trump and anti-Maga Reagan doctrine.
After locking in the nomination, Trump scolded as usual: Haley failed miserably, was in a mess, fled in the wilderness, had no courage, and did not dare to fight to the end! I won the "biggest Super Tuesday victory in history", and I hereby invite Haipan voters to join us in the greatest movement in history to overthrow Biden, the traitor who has brought disaster to the country and the people! The sentences are exaggerated and the words are distorted, but everyone is used to it.
The Republican National Headquarters congratulated Trump on winning Super Tuesday, calling him the party's nominee candidate.
McCann finally endorsed, "Since Trump has the support of voters in his party and can be expected to be the nominee candidate, then I can also expect my support." It's awkward, but it does uphold the old Reagan tradition, promising to support his party's nominee. McCann will bring in some wall riders, especially Senate Republicans. Although McCann protected Trump from being ousted after the second **, he still instigated TrumpThe 6th rebellion is asked. McCann also blamed Trump for the defeat in the 2022 election.
Indeed, there are too many demons lingering, and now more people are paying attention to Trump's lawsuit, worrying that the re-nomination is still to accompany the prince to study. In fact, what Trump needs most at the moment is money, and the legendary Ma Yilong's sponsorship election was shattered by Ma Yilong's one-sentence statement: no matter which candidate he is, he will not fund it.
In addition to the lack of money, what will Trump's next election luck?
Trump's election
The overall situation of the primary election has been decided, and we can take a look at the election situation calmly, especially Trump's election luck, through Phnom Penh, halo, momentum, hard injuries, weaknesses, and opportunities. Aside from judicial and intra-party challenges, and has nothing to do with the idea of governing the country, Trump has no interest in governing the country anyway, and announced his candidacy early, obviously only for self-preservation, and has repeatedly claimed that he wants revenge, let alone a political platform. But in any case, an election campaign is an election campaign, and it is better to watch the election campaign and look at the doorway.
First, why is Trump so far ahead of the primaries? Why didn't Haley quit early to choose Zhanchuan? Things have developed now, and the mystery can be solved.
2024** is unique in history, because the leaders of both parties are "incumbents" who are running for re-election** This may cause doubts, Biden's re-election campaign is obvious, what about Trump? The problem lies in the election of the Sichuan Party, yes, Trump made them believe that they did not lose in 2020, and they have been ** and wronged, and 2024 is the last chance to redress their name. The primary election is the business of the party, and everyone is confident that whoever is the other. At the same time, both Trump and Biden have ultra-low popularity, at least because of their advanced age.
Click**: Why is Trump sad and angry? Isn't it a winning streak? -2024**17cThe net result is that since it is a one-on-one rather than a group of open competition, the competition is not about who is more popular, but who is less opposed.
The primary election ended at the halfway point, and the truth gradually emerged. Looking at the respective votes on Tuesday, the number of Republican voters who oppose Biden in each state is about a few to a dozen percent, and the Republicans who oppose Trump are about a dozen to forty percent, verifying the sporadic results of the previous primaries.
Looking at the seats they have won, because the number of seats the two parties is different, so it is clear not to look at the number, but only to look at the proportion: Trump won 1040 seats and opposed 86, even if there is a winner-takes-all rule to help; Biden won 1572, "undecided" 10. The Kuomintang does not play winner-takes-all, the real votes are counted, and the seats are distributed proportionally, and Biden wins the real thing.
Did Trump's primaries count as high? The answer is yes, two words. Regardless of the number of votes or the representative seats, if the primary election is open to non-re-election, it is super high, and if it is counted as a re-election campaign, it is super low. By modern Republican standards, a re-election race should easily score near a perfect score. Trump is considered to have the name of re-election, but he has no power to be re-elected? Or quasi-re-election?
Biden does not have this problem, and is nearing a perfect score, with significant primary opponents largely missing, and the challenge comes mainly from "undecided" votes, consisting of Socialist votes, Arab Muslim votes, and anti-Israel young votes, about 10%, which is comparable to Obama's 2012 encounter rate, for the same reasons. Obama won re-election, beating Romney 51-47. The uncommitted votes are neither for nor against, and will be divided into two categories: abstention and return support. With no other candidate in sight than Biden, it's even harder to imagine supporting Trump.
Biden's biggest advantage? Trump, of course. 2020 is the oldest candidate in history, but most people want to end Trump's nightmare by voting for Biden. In 2024, in order to prevent a repeat of Trump's nightmare, the only way to vote for Biden is still possible.
The anti-Trump front is mainly the Reagan Republican Party of Haley and others and the independent votes who don't like to fight again. Abstaining from voting is Trump's net loss, while voting for Biden is Trump's double loss, which has been explained in detail in the previous episode and will not be repeated. In many state primaries, independent votes are not allowed to be cast at will, so they are silent votes in the primaries, and the independent votes are currently reversed.
Trump's biggest bruise? Trump himself, of course. As a candidate, Trump never received a majority of voters, but he had the most opposition votes in the Republican Party. Although there are players who can beat Biden better than Trump, such as Haley, they can't beat Trump. Because Trump is roughly equal to the Republican Party, and the Republican Party has roughly become the Sichuan Party. Really?
The ultimate test
The Trump phenomenon has been interpreted at different levels, at the individual level, at the Republican level, and at the United States level. Politics aside, it's interesting to look at Trump's control of the Republican Party alone: it's amazing that a businessman with little partisan background and no political experience can be transformed into the signature and embodiment of the GOP, the boss party founded by Lincoln. The last time GOP leader Reagan was defeated by Trump, although some people say that the Reagan Party carefully built Trump, but if that were the case, there would be no widespread fear and surrender of the Reagan Party, let alone the classic Reagan rebellion.
The difference between the Sichuan Party and the Reagan Party is too great, the Reagan Party is small at home and global leadership externally, while the Sichuan Party is populist at home and closed off from the outside, Reagan is gentle and kind, Trump is rude and arrogant, how can it be one? A category? The only thing that is the same is that both Reagan and Trump are committed to attracting blue-collar workers and gospel whites, and many of Trump's country tragedy tickets are inherited from Reagan's blue tickets. The meaning of the party here is equivalent to faction, and within the Republican Party, no matter how strong the Sichuan faction is, the Reagan faction and the Reagan Party will still not be able to destroy the Reagan faction.
Click**: What do voters want in extreme times? What did the Kawabai War have to do with Reagan? -2024**162024 The mainstream of anti-Sichuan red votes is the moderate, center-left Reagan Republican Party, which can't stand Trump's private morality, chaos and public morality, and bites all regardless of relatives and relatives, and does not agree with the Maga Party's self-isolation of the country. The votes of the moderate two parties plus the non-partisan votes together constitute an independent vote, and the anti-Trump is one-sided, although it is less than the non-holy alliance of the country tragedy, but if all of them do not passively abstain from voting, it is enough to make Trump lose **.
On the whole, only look at the disadvantages and opposition:
Sichuan Baidu is old and cancels each other out;
Biden is less opposed, and some of the undecided votes can be saved;
The number of anti-Sichuan votes is large, many of them are irretrievable, and some have to be worshipped;
The majority of independent votes are anti-Sichuan.
Trump is anti-establishment, anti-system, anti-coalition, anti-world, while Biden is the poster child of classic United States politics. Those who look at the dark clouds look for Phnom Penh, and those who appreciate Phnom Penh should also look for the dark clouds? Without dark clouds, how can you come to Phnom Penh?
In addition, no matter who wins, there is a largely Gagarized Congressional Republican, and for the first time in history, the speaker of the Sichuan House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, has already refused military aid. In this way, the 2024 congressional election is also very important, regardless of the Senate and House of Representatives, every seat is alive and dead, and the vote difference is as thin as paper, and it is even more difficult for the two parties to reach a consensus.
Both sides say that 2024 is the ultimate showdown, and both say that they are the last hope. There is no doubt that Trump wants to be his last hope, but what about the Republican Party? The anti-Sichuan side said that 2024 is the ultimate test of the United States' national system of government, so is Biden the last hope of the United States?
On the occasion of the victory over Super Tuesday, Biden urged his countrymen to choose carefully: Keep going? Or let Trump drag everyone back into chaos, darkness?
Hillary Clinton, the pre-named candidate and Haley idol, called on the people to support Biden: After Tuesday, everything was clear, against November, one is the most efficient Biden in modern times, and the other is a well-known person who tried to subvert the United States MZH, was indicted on 91 criminal charges, and declared that he wanted to immediately DCAI. Both of them are 80 years old, at this age, there is no difference in age, it's as simple as that. I vote for Biden, what about you?
What do you think? Let's talk in the comment area. Welcome to pay attention to "The Wind Sings and Picks Up the Sun", different anecdotes, casual gossip, straight to the essence, and back to the point. I'm Feng Ming, see you next time.